NCAA Tournament odds: A gambling deep dive into Coach K's time at Duke
Mike Krzyzewski — affectionately known as "Coach K" — has been the face of Duke basketball ever since he frustrated UNLV bettors in the 1991 NCAA Men's Final Four.
As the NCAA’s all-time winningest coach completes his swan song in the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, FOX Sports Research decided to dive into his tenure from a betting perspective — namely, how he’s performed against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU).
Over his 42 years in Durham, North Carolina, Coach K etched his name into the record books with numerous milestones:
— 1,202 wins, the most of any coach in NCAA history, regardless of classification
— 101 wins in 131 games coached in the NCAA Tournament, both the highest marks of any coach since the tournament’s conception
— 69 wins and 15 titles in the ACC Tournament, both the most of any coach in the conference’s history
— 1,569 games coached, the most of any coach in NCAA history
— 37 seasons with at least 20 wins
— 16 seasons with at least 30 wins
— 47 seasons as a head coach, third-most in NCAA history behind Jim Phelan (49) and Phog Allen (48) (minimum 10 years as D-I coach)
— 13 Final Four appearances, most of any coach all-time
— Five NCAA Tournament titles (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015)
Our betting data goes back to the 2004-05 season and is composed of games in which lines were set. In that span, the legendary coach has been surprisingly average from a gambling perspective. Per BetLabs, Coach K is 304-288-13 against the spread (including the postseason), giving a negative return on investment. When it comes to the over/under, he has been pretty even, hitting the under in 49.6% of games he has coached. So where does the value historically lie in betting on Coach K’s Blue Devils?
Two answers: Cameron Indoor Stadium and the ACC Tournament. Since the 2004-05 season, Duke is 33-9 SU in his conference tournament, which amounted to a 4.8% return for betters. The "Cameron Crazies" have been a huge help to his teams as well, as Duke is 139-123-7 ATS at home in that span — only being an underdog in six of those contests. Bettors saw a 3.1% return on investment in that period.
Now let’s look at how Coach K has performed in the NCAA Tournament. When it comes to the Big Dance, the results are similar to those from regular-season. Against the spread, he is 64-65- since 1985 despite being 101-29 SU. Below is a breakdown of how he has performed gambling wise in each round:
As you can see, Coach K only breaks even ATS in the rounds following the Sweet 16. However, Duke’s performance as an underdog has been exceptional in the tournament. Since 1985, the Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS as dogs with four straight-up wins in those contests. They've also covered and won twice in pick ‘em matchups, doing so in the Elite Eight against UConn in 1990 and vs. Texas Tech in this year’s Sweet 16.
Here are some other betting milestones for Coach K since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
— 64 covers, the most of any coach in that span
— 65 non-covers, also the most of any coach in that span
— 55 covers as a favorite, most of any coach in that span
— 23 covers as a double-digit favorite, most of any coach in that span
Seen in the table below, Coach K has the third-lowest cover percentage ATS in the NCAA Men's Tournament among coaches with at least 50 appearances. As you can probably tell by now, most of this data is skewed due to the number of games he’s appeared in — literally the most of any coach in history.
One thing of note is the flip side of the table below — four of the five coaches with the highest cover percentage in the Tournament (minimum 50 games) are still active coaches in college: Jim Boeheim (60%), Rick Pitino (56.2%), Tom Izzo (55.3%), Roy Williams (52.8%) and Bill Self (52.7%).
Ultimately, betting on Coach K has led to various results over his career. No coach in the history of college basketball has achieved as many milestones, which has undoubtedly influenced his betting record.
While the Blue Devils lost as favorites to Virginia Tech in the conference championship, there were two seasons where Duke won the national title after failing to win the ACC Tournament (1991, 2015). This Blue Devils team is now just two more wins from doing so for the third time.
This March, the team is 3-1 ATS through four tournament games. The Blue Devils failed to cover as 18.5-point favorites in a 17-point win vs. Cal State Fullerton and then covered in their next three.
Coach K & Co. will square off against North Carolina on Saturday in what will be the first NCAA Tournament matchup for the Tobacco Road rivalry. Duke is currently a 4-point favorite and has the best odds to win the tournament at +150. Under Coach K they've made nine national title game appearances with wins in five. Will the legendary coach make it back to the title game again this season?
Whether you are riding with Coach K or fading him in the Final Four, head over to FOX Bet to place your wagers!
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