NCAA Tournament odds: Elite Eight betting trends and more
The upsets continued during the Sweet 16 as three underdogs booked their tickets to the Elite Eight. With less than 10 days remaining in the college basketball season, bettors are still hanging on for the last games of March Madness.
While it is unlikely you have a good bracket remaining, you can still win big this March by betting on the remaining games of the tournament.
We analyzed the data and noticed a couple of trends that stand out for the Elite Eight. As usual, if you still want a stake in the game, make sure you place your bets over at FOX Bet.
The first trend that pops out is the dominance of underdogs against the spread (ATS) in the Elite Eight. FOX Sports Research finds that since 1985, underdogs are 80-60-2 ATS in this round. Even more remarkable is that double-digit underdogs are 7-4 ATS over that same time period.
Recently the trend has been even stronger, as dogs have gone 20-13-1 ATS in the Elite Eight since 2016.
With their historic win over Purdue on Friday night, the 15-seeded St. Peter's Peacocks (-8) enter their matchup against the No. 8 North Carolina as the biggest underdog of the round.
- The Peacocks are 11-3 ATS when underdogs this season; 5-2 ATS when underdogs by eight or more points.
- St. Peter's is 24-9 ATS this season.
- The Tar Heels are 6-8 ATS this season when favorites of eight or more points.
- UNC is 19-17 ATS this season.
- Since 1985, 8 seeds are 6-2 ATS and 5-3 SU in the Elite Eight.
The second double-digit seed in the Elite Eight, Miami, faces the sole 1-seed remaining, Kansas, on Sunday.
- The Jayhawks are 14-15 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points this season.
- The Hurricanes are 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season, 5-1 ATS when 'dogs of 6 or more points.
When looking specifically at 5-seeds we've also seen a common theme. They have been a strong play this round going 8-1 ATS and 7-2 straight up (SU) since 1985. The 5-seed may not get here often, but when they do, they win.
This bodes well for Houston as they are the only 5-seed remaining and also find themselves as the only lower-seed betting favorite this round when they face 2-seed Villanova.
- Houston is 23-12 ATS when favored by 2.5 or more points this season.
- The Cougars are 9-1 this season at neutral sites.
- Villanova is 1-3-1 ATS when underdogs this season, 1-4 SU.
- Villanova is 3-0 in its last 3 Elite Eight appearances, and went on to win the National Championship in each of its last 2 appearances (2016, 2018).
And for out last matchup we have unfortunate news for Duke fans as 2-seeds have been middling in the Elite Eight going 32-31-2 ATS and 30-35 SU since 1985.
- Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
- Duke is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, 8-2 SU.
- With a win, Arkansas would become the first 4-seed to reach the Final Four since 2013 (Michigan, Syracuse).
- Arkansas is 3-0 all-time against 2-seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
- Duke is 6-1 all-time against 4-seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
So which of these trends do you like? Regardless of which way you go, make sure to place your bets at FOX Bet.
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