NCAA Tournament odds: Historical review of past March Madness champions
March Madness is finally here! FOX Sports Research decided to take a deeper look at the common characteristics among Final Four teams since expansion, focusing on the factors that could help you place a bet on the eventual winner.
This season will mark the 83rd edition of the men's NCAA Tournament and the 36th since expanding to 64 teams in 1985.
The table below shows some pretty striking trends regardless of the time unit being measured.
As the chart indicates, history shows regular season domination is a good predictor of tournament success. Since 1985, the average seed of a Final Four team is just under 3, with approximately an 83% win percentage entering the dance.
However, that number has declined when looking at a smaller sample size — dropping to nearly 4 when looking at Final Four teams since 2011.
What’s most notable is how many unranked teams in the AP Poll have made the semifinals. Since 1985, 16 teams that entered the tournament unranked made the Final Four. Digging even deeper, eight of those 16 have come since 2011, including last season’s UCLA Bruins. Who can forget their magical run?
Here's another piece of data that sticks out: Going back to the 2009 NCAA Tournament, the average preseason odds of the eventual winner has been +1962. In that span, the 2011 Connecticut Huskies had the longest preseason odds to win the title at +4000. During that same time frame, the team with the shortest preseason odds to win it all were the 2009 North Carolina Tar Heels, at +450.
Here are some notable teams that had odds between +1500 and +2000 entering this season.
KenPom has become the standard for predicting tournament success since it began measuring efficiency ratings in 2001-02. The website also analyzes various other statistics such as tempo (pace of play), luck factor and strength of schedule.
When looking at the KenPom data, the average tempo ranking of every Final Four team in that span is somewhat surprising. Those 76 teams hovered around 175 in tempo ranking out of the 330 plus schools that have comprised Division I over that period of time.
That ranking drops to roughly 200 when looking at the last 10 tournaments, influenced heavily by Virginia's 2019 national championship run in which they ranked dead last in tempo.
As for winning it all? Since 2002, only two of the eventual NCAA Tournament champions did not finish the year in the top 20 of both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom — the 2021 Baylor Bears (22nd in defensive efficiency) and the 2014 Connecticut Huskies squad (39th in offensive efficiency).
Here is a look at the teams currently ranked inside the KenPom top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency:
As you can see, the list includes all of last season’s Final Four teams in the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Baylor, UCLA and the Houston Cougars. Arizona also makes the list, after finishing the season with a terrific 31-3 overall record.
Gonzaga, Arizona and Baylor are No. 1 seeds, while UCLA and Houston are No. 4 and No. 6 seeds, respectively.
Bet on these teams to win it all now! Odds via FOX Bet
Gonzaga: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Arizona: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Baylor: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
UCLA: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Houston: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
FOX Sports Research also wanted to see how experience and height contribute to Final Four teams. Since 2007, Final Four teams had an average height rank of approximately 86th in Division I and an experience rank of 104th. While these numbers don’t jump out, they show us these successful teams ranked in the top third of Division I in both categories.
How did we obtain this number? Well in 2007 there were 334 teams in Division-I and there are currently 358. We took the average of both these numbers and got 346. Now when we respectively divide 86 and 104 by 346, both figures land in the 25-30% range.
One team that stood out in this data set was the Kentucky Wildcats (won the national championship in 2012), who ranked in the top four of Division I in average height in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015; in those four seasons, their average experience rank was 299.5.
Some notable teams that rank in the top 20 of Division I schools in average height this season are the Arizona Wildcats (2nd), Gonzaga (10th) and the Purdue Boilermakers (15th).
So there you have it! Now that you have the historical profiles of past Final Four teams and champions, who are you picking to make a run in the tournament?
And if you are throwing down a few bucks down on Final Four or title futures, head over to FOX Bet to place your wagers.
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