NCAA Tournament odds: Picks for every Elite Eight game
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The 2022 NCAA Tournament has seen upsets galore thus far. Will the underdogs keep barking? The trend continued in the Sweet 16, with Gonzaga falling to Arkansas. I still can't believe the Zags lost!
Let's press onward toward teams cutting down the nets with our Elite Eight picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).
OVERALL RECORD: 28-32-1
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 2 Villanova (6:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
I bet the under 128 as soon as this number came out, as these are two of the slowest teams in the country. Houston ranks 323rd in possession length, while Villanova is 348. These two teams will endlessly hunt for the best shot possible, which should keep this number low. This game could be a "first to 50 wins" scenario.
Houston’s defense shut down Arizona’s high octane offense, holding the Wildcats to 33% shooting. Villanova also locked up, holding Michigan to 34%.
A big reason Villanova is 3-0 ATS in the tournament is because of free throws — 86% (38-of-44). They ranked first in the country in FT shooting this season. Houston, on the other hand, ranked 327th, and is only shooting 64% (37-of-57) in the tournament.
This game features a terrific coaching matchup, but I’m surprised the line has moved toward Houston off the open (1.5 up to 2). But Houston is playing in San Antonio and will have a home-court advantage.
Villanova can be susceptible on the defensive glass, and Houston ranks third in the country when it comes to grabbing its own missed shots. Slight lean to Villanova getting two points, but I'll take the under in this slugfest.
PICK: Under 128 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet (Win)
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 2 Duke (8:49 p.m. ET, TBS)
Did Arkansas catch Gonzaga thinking about the Duke rematch? The Zags shot 5-of-21 on 3’s, committed 15 turnovers — including five by point guard Andrew Nembhard — and wasted a 7-point lead late in the first half.
Overwhelmed by the defense of speedy JD Notae, the pressure got to Nembhard, who shot 2-of-11. The Hogs did get huge and timely 3-point shooting in Thursday's game: Jaylin Williams made 17 all season but sank two against Gonzaga. Trey Wade had made 12 threes all season before shooting 3-of-4 in the upset. It was an out-of-body experience, one the Razorbacks won’t be able to duplicate — especially the turnovers, as Duke point guard Jeremy Roach has only committed four-plus turnovers once this season.
Arkansas will try to force the ball out of Paolo Banchero’s hands in the paint with double teams and hope the other Blue Devils can’t make their shots — Gonzaga couldn’t.
When it comes to Duke's victory, the Blue Devils shot an astonishing 71% in the second half against Texas Tech. They didn’t miss a shot from the field in the final seven-plus minutes. Duke is an offensive juggernaut down the stretch with three versatile pros who can create — Banchero, AJ Griffin (son of Seton Hall star Adrian Griffin, who spent five years in the NBA) and Roach.
Even though Duke only plays six guys, one of their other subs is freshman Trevor Keels, who exploded for 25 points against Kentucky on opening night in November. He's had three games of 25-plus points this season; he only played 14 minutes against Tech, shooting 0-for-3. Look for Wendell Moore (41 percent from deep) and Griffin (45 percent) to be massive for the Blue Devils.
If the game is tight, and it comes down to free throws, Duke is 40-of-47 (85%) on FTs in the tourney, well above their 73% on the season.
PICK: Duke (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points (Win)
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 1 Kansas (2:20 p.m. ET, CBS)
Here’s how wild the NCAA tournament has been for Miami’s leading scorer, Kameron McGusty: He shot 0-for-8 on 3-pointers in the first two rounds … and then hit 4-of-7 in the win over Iowa State, scoring nearly as many points (27 points) as he had in the first two rounds combined (32). Miami came into the tournament 114th in the country in defense, but they have held each opponent to 66 or fewer points, and the Hurricanes have snagged 34 steals. Jim Larranaga has now taken two double-digit seeds (George Mason, Miami) to the Elite Eight.
Kansas has been perplexing the last two times out, blowing big leads against Big East foes Creighton and Providence but surviving (without covering). Their best player, Ochai Agbaji, has been invisible, totaling just 31 points, and he’s just 2-of-12 on 3-pointers. Where is the All-American who scored 25-plus points six times, including 37 in a win over Texas Tech?
Then again, you could look at Kansas and say the Jayhawks beat Providence despite their two best players doing almost nothing (Agbaji and Christian Braun combined for 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting). The key of course will be Remy Martin, the Arizona State transfer who scored 23 points in 27 minutes. He’s in the sixth man role, and the offense is explosive without him, but he can be turnover prone (six games of 3-plus) trying to be too flashy.
Expect 6-foot-10 Miami center Sam Waardenburg (42 percent on 3-pointers) to pull David McCormack away from the basket, opening driving lanes for McGusty and Isaiah Wong. But the length of Agbaji and Braun could give Miami's guards problems finishing at the rim.
Pick: Kansas (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points (Win)
No. 15 Saint Peter's vs. No. 8 North Carolina (5:05 p.m. ET, CBS)
UNC is here because of the otherworldly shooting of Caleb Love, who dropped 30 points on UCLA — including six 3-pointers, two in the final two minutes — as the Tar Heels pulled within one game of a potential Final Four matchup with Duke. The rivals have never met in the NCAA Tournament.
Love, a sophomore, has had two games this tournament with six 3s; he only had one all season. The Tar Heels grabbed 15 offensive rebounds, including eight by Armando Bacot. His total matched that of the entire UCLA team. But four starters played 37-plus minutes, and UNC’s bench is nonexistent. Nine Peacocks played double-digit minutes in the upset over Purdue. Saint Peter’s will have the crowd behind them in Philadelphia, trying to become the lowest seed ever to reach the Final Four. It’s difficult to envision the Peacocks pulling yet another upset, but underdogs dominated the Sweet 16, going 6-2 ATS.
I can’t find an edge for the Peacocks, but then again, I couldn’t against Purdue, either. The Peacocks cashed +650 moneyline tickets, and the David versus Goliath sentiment will have the public loading up on the Peacocks again. UNC was an underdog against Baylor and UCLA, but now they’re in the favorite role, being hunted. Lean to the Peacocks, who can only win this with defense. Pick: Under 137 points scored combined by both teams (Win)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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