NCAA Tournament odds: Picks for every Sweet 16 game
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The first two rounds of the 2022 NCAA Tournament are in the books, meaning it's already time to place your bets on the Sweet 16!
We’re betting every single game in some way, shape or form throughout all of March Madness. You read that right: Every. Single. Game. Whether it's against the spread (ATS), on the moneyline or picking an over/under, we have you covered.
We saw upsets galore in the first weekend of March Madness. Can the underdogs keep barking? As for your bets, whether you are up or down, there is still a chance for you to win a couple of bucks. Fortunately, every game can be an edge-of-your-seat thrill ride when you have a little pizza money invested.
So let's get to our Sweet 16 picks (with all odds via FOX Bet).
OVERALL RECORD: 24-32-1
Friday's Games
No. 15 Saint Peter's vs. No. 3 Purdue (7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Peacocks are the best story of the tourney, becoming just the third No. 15 seed to make the Sweet 16. A gritty team that plays suffocating defense, Saint Peter’s forced Kentucky into a 4-for-15 night on 3-pointers and then held Murray State to just 35% shooting.
The Peacocks are susceptible inside, as Oscar Tshiebwe of Kentucky tallied 30 points and 16 rebounds. They may also have trouble with Purdue’s post duo of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams (33 points, 17 rebounds combined). Purdue's size fouled out two Texas post players and the Boilermakers attempted 46 free throws.
No 15-seed has ever made the Elite Eight, and Matt Painter will have three days to prepare for Saint Peter’s, which will probably have a decided crowd advantage at the Wells Fargo Center.
I love the over, but will the poor shooting Peacocks (313th in 2-pointers) struggle in an NBA area against Purdue’s length? As long as Saint Peter's can keep up, this game should surpass this total.
PICK: Over 135.5 total points scored by both teams combined (Loss)
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 1 Kansas (7:29 p.m. ET, TBS)
Jayhawks fans have to feel excited about how wide-open the Midwest bracket is after Iowa was upset in the first round, followed by Auburn in the second. But, Providence has taken money early in the week as a significant underdog.
Fun fact, but this will be the Friars' first Sweet 16 trip since 1997 when they had Austin Croshere and God Shammgod.
Providence is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 301st in possession length. On the flip side, Kansas wants to run and jump (43rd in possession length).
Expect the crowd at the United Center in Chicago to be pro-Jayhawks. Kansas is simply too lethal offensively with a healthy Remy Martin (20 points against Creighton), All-American Ochai Agbaji and wing Christian Braun for the 24-4 Friars to keep up.
PICK: Kansas (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points (Loss)
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 4 UCLA (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Bruins are the better team, but it’s difficult to handicap this one without their best player, Jaime Jaquez. He’s not their best scorer (that’s Johnny Juzang), but the offense flows through Jaquez. He’s their best post option, pivotal on the offensive glass, their best post defender and is second on the team in assists. If Jaquez is sidelined, I make the Tar Heels the favorite.
UNC has won eight of nine games, including wins over Duke and Baylor. You don’t know who will go off for the talented bunch — RJ Davis had 30 vs. Baylor; Caleb Love 23 against Marquette, and Brady Manek, their best offensive player, has 54 points in the tournament. And their most consistent player all season has been center Armando Bacot.
UCLA’s experience and defense should win out with Jaquez at full strength. But, if he does miss the game, lookout. On a side note, the only offense that the Bruins haven’t solved in the last month was Arizona.
PICK: Under 142.5 points scored by both teams combined (Win)
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Miami (Fla.) (9:59 p.m. ET, TBS)
This game is probably the grossest matchup in the Sweet 16. Iowa State is unwatchable, having not topped 60 points in either tournament game to get here, and not unexpected after last year’s 2-22 debacle.
Miami will have a few days to get its explosive backcourt ready for the relentless pressure of Izaiah Brockington and Tyrese Hunter. If you bet on guards in March, Miami has to be the play, right?
Isaiah Wong, the guy who dunked on Jabari Smith, has been tremendous of late (43 points in two games). And well-traveled Charlie Moore (California, Kansas, DePaul, Miami) has 12 assists and just four turnovers in the tournament.
This game will be a grind fest. First to 50 wins?
PICK: Under 133.5 points scored by both teams combined (Win)
Thursday's Games
No. 4. Arkansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
The last time Arkansas saw a post player the caliber of Drew Timme or Chet Holmgren, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe went for 30 points and collected 18 rebounds. But the Razorbacks prevailed because point guard JD Notae was unstoppable (30 points). Forward Jaylin Williams is the Razorbacks’ only chance to slow Timme and Holmgren, as he’s their only rotational player over 6-foot-6.
Gonzaga's bigs hog all the headlines, but point guard Andrew Nembhard is underrated and will control the game.
The key to this game will be the Razorbacks' 3-ball. If Arkansas doesn’t have a good night from deep (314th in the country), they could get blown out.
PICK: Gonzaga (-9 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 9 points (Loss)
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 2 Villanova (7:29 p.m. ET, TBS)
Michigan was a team that probably didn’t have the resume to get into the Big Dance, and yet here they are, two wins from the Final Four.
The Wolverines were fortunate that the Vols had their worst 3-point shooting game of the season, going 2-for-18 on Saturday. Michigan can win multiple ways — in round one, freshman Caleb Houstan hit three 3s and had 13 points; against Tennessee, he went scoreless, and Eli Brooks went for 23 points.
Villanova hasn’t faced a big man the caliber of Hunter Dickinson since giving up 21 points to Zach Edey in a November loss to Purdue. But the last three times the Wildcats have lost, the opponent has hit 10 or more 3s.
Let's see if Michigan can get hot from beyond the arc. The Wolverines haven’t hit 10 or more 3s since a Feb. 10 shellacking of Purdue.
PICK: Michigan (+5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5 points (or win outright) (Loss)
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Duke (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
This game is a fascinating matchup of the fourth most efficient offense in the country against the No. 1 defense. The public will likely take Duke — the win over Michigan State was the most-watched game of the opening weekend, and the Blue Devils were unstoppable down the stretch — and the sharp money will be on the gritty Red Raiders.
Texas Tech plays nine guys; the Blue Devils are just six deep, and that’s a potential problem with Adrian Griffin nursing an ankle injury suffered in the second half against Sparty.
The matchup to watch is 22-year-old Kevin Obanor — who made the Sweet 16 last year with Oral Roberts — going against 19-year-old potential No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero. Physically, Obanor can match up with him, but it will spell doom for Texas Tech if he gets in foul trouble.
PICK: Duke (+1.5 at FOX Bet) lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright) (Win)
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 1 Arizona (9:59 p.m. ET, TBS)
The public will see a scrappy Houston team being able to topple the top-seeded Wildcats, the way pugnacious TCU nearly just did. On the other hand, I saw a flexible Arizona team that barely played NBA prospect Azuolas Tubelis (16 minutes) in a bad matchup vs. the Horned Frogs and still prevailed. Freshman Bennedict Mathurin (30 points) had a lot to do with that win — boy, is he fun to watch.
Will Houston collect 20 offensive rebounds as TCU did? TCU was ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding; Houston is third. The Cougars struggled badly twice against the size of Memphis which means another monster game could be in line for Christian Koloko (28 points, 12 rebounds).
The game is in San Antonio, only three hours from Houston so the crowd might be pro-Cougars. But I still like the Wildcats to pull this one out.
PICK: Arizona (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points (Loss)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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