College Basketball

NCAA Tournament odds: History behind the 5-12 matchup in March Madness

Updated Mar. 16, 2022 7:28 p.m. ET

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As the men's NCAA Tournament has exploded in popularity, a driving force behind that is the proliferation of bracket pools where entrants try to pick the winner for each game.

And many a bracket has been busted — or made if the picker is savvy enough — by the first-round pairing between a No. 5 seed and a 12 seed.

For more, from gambling-friendly schedules featuring live, updating odds to expert analysis and the day's most-bet games, check out the college basketball section on the FOX Sports App and FOXSports.com!

Since 2010, a No. 12 seed has beaten the No. 5 seed 17 times, winning 39% of the 44 games against a No. 5 in that span. In the previous 11 tournaments, more than one No. 12 seed has won five times.

As fans and bettors caught on to the success of No. 12 seeds, so did the sportsbooks.

"We used to have a prop up, ‘Would a 12 beat a 5’ and we lost on it every year," said Jeff Stoneback, Director of Trading for BetMGM. "We don’t even offer it anymore."

Last season, the Oregon State Beavers, the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, shocked the world (well, maybe everywhere else but Corvallis, Ore.) by advancing to the Elite Eight.

The Beavers started their tournament run by toppling No. 5 Tennessee 70-56 as an 8.5-point underdog.

Will history repeat itself? A 12 seed has won at least one game in 21 of the last 25 NCAA Tournaments. The years all four No. 5s advanced were 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018. The No. 5 seeds hold a 93-51 edge over the No. 12 seeds (64.6 winning percentage).

The best years for riding the No. 12 seeds were 2013, 2014 and 2019 when three No. 12s won.

"There is not that much of a difference between a 5 seed and a 12 as there were, say, 10 years ago," Stoneback explained. "And with the spreads of 2.5, 6.5, 8.5 and 10.5, you can see it very easily could happen again this year.

"I don’t know why this one has caught the eye of everyone the last few years, but I suspect it is because it (a 12 beating a 5) usually does happen."

This year's 12 vs. 5 matchups are Indiana vs. Saint Mary's in the East Region, Richmond vs. Iowa in the Midwest Region, New Mexico State vs. UConn in the West Region on Thursday and UAB vs. Houston in the South Region on Friday.

So will we see some 5-12 upset magic again this tournament?

Tieme Wesselink, senior basketball trader at FOX Bet, said he likes Mike Woodson's Hoosiers to win a second game in a span of three days on Thursday. Indiana advanced to the Round of 64 by beating Wyoming 66-58 on Tuesday. Woodson and the Hoosiers won the 1979 NIT during his junior season.

"Having played a game in the First Four does not necessarily have to be a negative for the first round as at this stage, fatigue is not much of a concern," Wesselink said. "Rather, being more comfortable with the environment and having less pressure after winning as a First Four can benefit a team."

So there you have it, folks. Will a No. 12 pull off a, well, not-so-shocking upset of a No. 5 this season?

If you feel like throwing down a few bucks down on some 12 seeds, head over to FOX Bet to place your wagers.

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!

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