College Basketball

NCAA Tournament South Region bracket: Predictions, upsets, can Arizona tame the Tide?

Updated Mar. 13, 2023 2:28 p.m. ET

The South Region of the NCAA men's tournament is filled with intrigue.

It contains the top overall No. 1 seed in Alabama and all the drama that has followed the Crimson Tide. It has another highly talented team in 2-seed Arizona, the Pac-12 champions who are loaded with talent down low.

It also has an intriguing 5-seed in San Diego State and a darling Cinderella that you'll want to learn all about.

And then there is Baylor, a 3-seed that has had a season of ups and downs, but also a team that won it all just two seasons ago.

Here's a guide to the field in the South.

View the full bracket here.

Of the top four seeds, which ones have the best path?

Alabama and Arizona: Alabama is playing its best basketball of the season after running through the SEC to the tournament title. So is Arizona after winning the Pac-12. I could definitely see a 1-2 matchup in the Elite Eight in Louisville.

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Alabama should be able to get by the winner of Maryland-West Virginia. Neither team has the right matchup for Brandon Miller. San Diego State and Virginia aren't as equipped to deal with them either.

Arizona is well constructed with its mobile bigs and a matchup problem comparable to Miller in Azuolas Tubelis. Both of these guys are legit first-team all-American candidates. Arizona should get to the Elite Eight by dispatching Missouri and then Creighton in a rematch from the Maui Invitational.

Which team in the Nos. 5-9 range could be a dark horse?

San Diego State has the best path to a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Alabama because of its vaunted defense. The Aztecs won the regular season and a tournament title in the Mountain West, a league that challenged them in every outing. Could the Aztecs knock off Alabama? Sure. They have the defense to do so. The concern will be whether they can score with the Tide.

Does this region have a Cinderella?

Charleston is the obvious choice because the Cougars won 31 games. The matchup with San Diego State is definitely winnable. But facing Virginia and then potentially Alabama would be a tall task.

Best first-round matchup?

Maryland-West Virginia. This is the best 8-9 game in the field. Both teams can play extremely hard. They will push each other, and the point guard play of Jahmir Young and Joe Toussaint is going to be one of the best in the first round. Expect this game to be a slugfest with how the game is called likely being a critical factor.

Upset alert?

Baylor is the choice here with its matchup with UC Santa Barbara. Joe Pasternack's crew has won the Big West a few times now, and he has a seasoned group that is primed for a possible upset in a 3-14 matchup. Baylor has been inconsistent this season.

Regional final

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Arizona

My pick: Arizona

The Wildcats had the team to make a Final Four run last season before they were shocked by Houston in the Sweet 16. Arizona has the bigs and the wings to beat Alabama. I say the Wildcats get it done.

Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.

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