Women's College Basketball

NCAA Women's March Madness Bracket predictions, upsets, Final Four picks

Updated Mar. 13, 2023 4:25 p.m. ET

After a wild year and an exciting start to March, the NCAA Women's Tournament is finally here. And we have some questions:

Can South Carolina defend its title? Will Caitlin Clark get her March Madness moment and lead Iowa to the Final Four? Can UConn rally now that Azzi Fudd is back in the lineup? Who will be this year’s Cinderella team?

The action begins Wednesday with two First Four games. Then, the full madness starts with 16 games on Friday and 16 more the following day.

Here is what you need to know:

[2023 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament bracket revealed]

Top storylines

Will South Carolina defend its title?

South Carolina’s pursuit for a perfect season and becoming just the fourth team in history to repeat as national champions is very much within grasp.

The Gamecocks (32-0) are the No. 1 overall seed and the best team in the country. They also, most importantly, have the best player in the country in Aliyah Boston, who is expected to be the first pick in the WNBA Draft. They haven’t lost a game since being upset by Kentucky in last year’s SEC Tournament championship game, and they’re the most imposing defensive team in the country. Led by Boston – the reigning National Player of the Year – the Gamecocks are holding opponents to 51.1 points per game on 31.4% shooting, while averaging more than nine blocks per game.

Dawn Staley’s team is long, deep and somehow even better than they were last year on both ends of the floor, which is scary for any team they’ll face over the next few weeks.

"The biggest difference [between this year’s team and last year’s team] is they’re embracing [having a target on their back] in a different and more poised and calm way," Staley said on ESPN’s Selection Show.

It’s helpful to have so many returning stars from the 2022 championship team, too. In addition to Boston, the Gamecocks have Brea Beal, Zia Cooke and Victaria Saxton, as well as Raven Johnson. Off the bench they have Kamilla Cardoso, Bree Hall and Laeticia Amihere.

"We know what it takes to win a national championship and be in close games," Boston said on the Selection Show. "We’ve done a great job bringing up the underclassmen, and they’re ready to rock and roll."

How far can Caitlin Clark take Iowa?

Last year, Iowa was upset by NCAA Tournament Cinderella Creighton, prohibiting Caitlin Clark from making a Final Four run.

As a junior, the National Player of the Year semifinalist has put on a show nearly every game. From her jaw-dropping logo 3-pointers to her off-balance buzzer-beaters to being so confident that she often knows her shot is "money" once it leaves her hands, basketball fans deserve to watch her play deep into the tournament this time.

So, how far can Clark, who is averaging 27 points per game and leads the country with 8.3 assists per game, take the Hawkeyes? Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament title, but hasn’t made it to a Final Four since 1993.

Caitlin Clark hits a deep 3-pointer

Iowa's Caitlin Clark hits a deep 3-point shot in a win over Ohio State.

The Hawkeyes earned a No. 2 seed in the Seattle 4 region, which is arguably one of the toughest parts of the bracket. Iowa faces Southeastern Louisiana in its first game, and if the Hawkeyes keep winning, they could face Duke in the Sweet 16 and either Texas or Stanford in the Elite Eight.

There was a lot of discussion as to whether Stanford or Iowa would get the No. 1 seed – the selection committee awarded it to the Cardinal. Will being a No. 2 seed make Clark mad and give her even more of an edge? That’s something a few teams are about to find out.

Coach with most pressure

If there was an EGOT award in sports, Dawn Staley would win it. She was a two-time National Player of the Year at Virginia and a six-time WNBA All-Star. She is also a four-time Olympic gold medalist (three as a player, one as Team USA’s head coach), and at South Carolina, she’s won two national championships (2017, 2022) and is on the brink of winning her third (and second in a row).

During the Selection Show, Staley joked about her gray hairs while talking about the stress of the moment and trying to guide her team to another title. Sitting next to her was Boston, who laughed and confidently told her coach, "speak it into existence."

Staley coaches a tight-knit team full of veterans who know exactly what this tournament is all about. It’s theirs to lose.

Three players to watch (not named Aliyah Boston or Caitlin Clark)

Maddy Siegrist, Villanova

While a wild guess might assume that Clark is the nation’s leading scorer, she’s not. That title goes to Siegrist, a senior forward at Villanova. Siegrist has averaged 28.9 points per game this season and once exploded for 50 on 20-of-26 shooting from the field in a 99-65 win over Seton Hall in February. She is also the Big East's all-time leading scorer with 1,550 career points.

Villanova's Maddy Siegrist drains a 3-point jumper

Villanova's Maddy Siegrist drains a 3-point jumper in the second quarter of the Big East championship.

Angel Reese, LSU

The star sophomore forward made history this season when she passed legend Sylvia Fowles’ record with 20 consecutive double-doubles. Her streak didn’t end there though, as she ultimately recorded 23 in a row and 27 in 28 games. That tied another Fowles record for most double-doubles in a season by an LSU player. With the NCAA Tournament set to get underway, expect Reese to break that record as the Tigers make their way through their region as a No. 3 seed.

Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech is one of the hottest teams heading into the NCAA Tournament, and one of the most dangerous, earning a No. 1 seed in the Seattle 3 region. The Hokies are led by Elizabeth Kitley, a two-time ACC Player of the Year who is also a National Player of the Year semifinalist. Kitley has averaged 18.6 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 56% from the floor. She has scored 20 or more points in 17 games and recorded 19 double-doubles this season.

Easiest draw

Greenville 1 is the easiest draw … for South Carolina to make a run and repeat as national champs, that is. It’s not so easy for anyone else standing in its way.

This region features potential rematches for the Gamecocks, as they played (and beat) No. 2 seed Maryland and No. 4 seed UCLA during the regular season. The fact that Staley can game plan for teams she’s already seen and beat handily is not good news for those opponents.

"I like it," Staley said of South Carolina’s bracket. "There’s a familiarity. I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but sometimes when you’re in a tournament setting like this, it’s a good thing to have played a couple of teams we’ve played this year. [But we] won’t shortchange the scout, that’s for sure."

It looks like the Gamecocks are in pretty good shape with a favorable path to the Final Four.

Toughest draw

Any region with UConn in it is automatically deemed the toughest. In this case, that’s Seattle 3 where the Huskies are the No. 2 seed.

Geno Auriemma’s team has gone through a very strange year. After losing to South Carolina in last year’s national championship game, the Huskies had Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd returning, so of course they would be the team to beat. Then both players got hurt – Bueckers tore her ACL and was declared out for the season, while Fudd injured her knee and missed 14 games. UConn’s depth was further depleted with more injuries and operated a chunk of the year with an eight-player rotation.

Add on the fact that Auriemma also missed games as he mourned the death of his mother and felt "under the weather and run down."

After a tough stretch, UConn ended up winning the Big East regular season and tournament titles. The Huskies also nearly beat South Carolina in early February with seven healthy players.

Players like Lou Lopez Senechal, Aaliyah Edwards, Aubrey Griffin and Nika Muhl have stepped up, and now Fudd is back, which instantly gives UConn a shot at advancing to its 15th consecutive Final Four.

Lou Lopez Senechal extends the Huskies' lead

UConn's Lou Lopez Senechal extends the Huskies' lead with the help of teammate Nika Muhl.

Cinderellas to watch

Last year, No. 10 seed Creighton shocked everyone when it knocked off Iowa in the second round and proceeded to beat Iowa State in the Sweet 16. The Bluejays' run ended in the Elite Eight, but by that point, they had already made their mark on the tournament.

Who could be a potential Cinderella team this year?

No. 9 seed South Dakota State finished its season 28-5 and won the Summit League. The Jackrabbits beat NCAA tourney-bound teams Mississippi State and Louisville and had single-digit losses to Creighton and UCLA. They’re also no stranger to thriving as a Cinderella, making it to the Sweet 16 in 2019. Then, Myah Selland was a sophomore and scored 12.5 points per game. Now, in her sixth season, she’s averaging 15.7 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, including a 25-point effort in a win over Louisville (who is a No. 5 seed).

SDSU faces No. 8 seed USC in the first round. The Trojans are 21-9 and went 11-7 in the Pac-12 this season. Win that, and a date with Virginia Tech looms in the second round.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

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