College Basketball

Pac-12 Tournament: Can anyone crash the UCLA-Arizona party?

Updated Mar. 7, 2023 3:51 p.m. ET

It has not been the greatest of years when it comes to Pac-12 basketball, but since the calendar reads March, the recent past doesn’t really matter all that much as we’ve entered the win-or-go-home phase of the season.

In fact, the up-and-down nature of hoops out West has probably only enhanced the drama going into what should be a fascinating conference tournament in Las Vegas this week. Storylines abound from the top end of the league all the way down to the bottom seeds. As we’ve seen the past few months, just about everybody is capable of pulling off an upset or two out of nowhere.

All things start with top-ranked UCLA however, which heads to T-Mobile Arena playing for its first No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook were roaming around Pauley Pavilion back in 2008. The Bruins cruised to the regular season Pac-12 title and proved to be a significant cut above the rest of the league — checking in at No. 2 in the AP Top 25 this week and looking every bit like a Final Four contender.

[UCLA surges to No. 2 in AP Top 25]

Mick Cronin’s squad will have all eyes on it not because of its senior leadership or talented playmakers, though, but rather to see how they might perform if junior guard Jaylen Clark is not able to play. He is the Pac-12’s best defender (2.6 steals per game) and a key part of the team’s balanced play, yet left Saturday’s win over Arizona with a lower leg injury. His status for both the conference and NCAA tourneys are being kept under wraps by the school, but he was seen walking around on crutches after returning from the locker room.

It seems like a decent bet for Clark to rest up over the next few days in hopes that he can return for a run at the national title later this month, but UCLA still has plenty of firepower to rely on in his absence. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has a good case to be Pac-12 Player of the Year (top five in the league in points and rebounds) and fellow senior Tyger Campbell makes the show go with his ability to get to the basket if he’s not dishing it off for an assist (4.7 per game). David Singleton got a little more run in Clark’s absence last week and could have been in line for more shots anyway after really coming along from 3-point range during the team’s stretch run.

The biggest threat to the Bruins taking home their first Pac-12 tournament title since 2014 will naturally be the only two other programs who can feel reasonably comfortable on Selection Sunday — Arizona and USC. Those teams handed the Bruins two of their four losses on the season.

The Wildcats are KenPom’s No. 11 team and feature one of the country’s best offenses. Guard Kerr Kriisa led the Pac-12 in assists in back-to-back seasons, and Azuolas Tubelis is one of the most exciting players on the West Coast after finishing atop the league in both points (19.9) and rebounds (9.2). Arizona won the event last year and certainly has the talent to make it two in a row if the Wildcats can get back to the kind of consistency they showed during a seven-game win streak earlier this season in which they topped 80 points five times.

As for the Trojans, they used a sweep of Arizona State to solidify their hold on the No. 3 seed thanks to true shooting veterans like Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson (who is dealing with a lingering back issue). They have proved as capable of beating anybody (see wins over Auburn and UCLA) as they have of losing to anybody (i.e. Oregon State) and seem like the great wild card for a tournament setting in a city that produces endless amounts of them.

Bubble watch

A sub-par nonconference slate has hampered the Pac-12 when it comes to NCAA Tournament bids, but this week in Vegas could prove to be critical for several bubble teams that still have a shot at making it into the big dance.

ASU is 20-11 overall and defines the bubble line with a No. 65 NET ranking and a 4-5 mark against Quad 1 teams. They need to handle Oregon State convincingly in the opening round on Wednesday and would seriously benefit from an upset of USC on Thursday. The Sun Devils have a chance at getting into the field if they can look the part in the semifinals, but would really feel good about their chances if they make it all the way to Saturday.

Meanwhile, Oregon has been all over the map in 2023 but has started to make a case that they’re in the mix for a First Four berth. They will likely have a tough opener if fifth-seeded Washington State makes it to the quarterfinals (the Ducks lost by three in Pullman a few weeks ago) and then would likely have to take on UCLA in the semifinals. But don’t put anything past head coach Dana Altman, who has cut down the nets at the Pac-12 tourney three times and has a terrific low post presence in double-double machine N’Faly Dante.

N'Faly Dante throws down a monster slam

Oregon's N'Faly Dante rattled the rim with a monster two-handed dunk against California.

Hot seats

The trip to Las Vegas looms extra large for a few programs given that it could be the difference in making a run and keeping their head coach for another season or forcing a decision from school administrators on going in a new direction.

At Washington, Mike Hopkins is just a few ticks over .500 overall and has firmly seen the shine wear off from a pair of 20-plus win campaigns to open his tenure on Montlake. The Huskies did sweep their opening-round opponent Colorado (who will be without point guard KJ Simpson), but still need to make a little noise and avoid an early exit. AD Jennifer Cohen has earned plenty of praise for helping turn around UW’s football program, but difficult decisions lie ahead with men’s basketball after this week.

Barring some unforeseen run at T-Mobile Arena, Cal is facing a less nebulous decision with Mark Fox. He’s 38-86 in Berkeley across four years and just turned in the Bears’ worst season in school history. Most in the industry believe it will only be a matter of time before the job opens up following the team’s first-round game against Washington State.

Across the Bay Area, Stanford coach Jerrod Haase is entering his seventh Pac-12 tournament and needs to win the entire thing if he wants to get the Cardinal into the NCAA tourney for the first time. The team has largely underperformed over the course of the 2022-23 season but does have some momentum on its side, having won eight of its last 14 (including an upset of Arizona). The Cardinal led conference play in 3-point shooting (37.9%) so anything is possible, but a tricky matchup awaits on Wednesday against a Utah squad that seems ticketed for the NIT after an ill-timed slide — losing seven of their last nine — late in the season.

The dark horses

Stalwarts UCLA and Arizona are rightfully the betting favorites to win the Pac-12 tournament, but the nature of performances out of the conference suggest we could be in for an unpredictable set of results not unlike what we saw a few years ago when Oregon State went on a Cinderella run that ended up in the Elite Eight.

While few would label the Beavers as being capable of pulling that off again, the winner of the potential Wazzu-Oregon quarterfinal on Thursday might be the best thing the Pac-12 will have to a true dark horse to win the whole thing this week.

The Ducks are not only fighting for their place on the right side of the bubble but always seem to find that extra gear when playing on consecutive days under a veteran coach like Altman.

On the other side, the Cougars head to Vegas with a six-game winning streak that is their longest in Pac-12 play since Kelvin Sampson was on the sidelines back in 1993. They average 8.9 3-pointers made (eighth nationally) and have an incredibly tough combo of guard TJ Bamba and forward Mouhamed Gueye to rely on. Head coach Kyle Smith could be one to watch on the coaching carousel this offseason given the work he’s done in Pullman and will no doubt use Washington State winning the Pac-12 Women’s Basketball Tournament last week (as the No. 7 seed) as motivation for his guys.

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