Picking a winning NCAA Tournament bracket: FOX Sports writers offer their expertise
"Be willing to take an educated risk."
Anyone who has filled out an NCAA Tournament bracket in the past can relate to this – the scenario that comes up when you want to be different, you want to pick that 13-seed to beat a 4-seed, but everything on paper suggests the 4-seed will cruise to an easy victory over that mid-major program that got hot late, won their respective conference tournament, and is now playing the role of David vs. a blue blood Goliath.
To quote the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company – "just do it."
If past NCAA Tournaments have taught us anything, it's that the NCAA Tournament is anything but predictable. That's why they call it "March Madness," because for the next three weeks, we will all get the chance to see true madness take place in what is the most thrilling sporting event in college athletics.
With that said, we've enlisted the help of FOX Sports' college basketball experts, John Fanta and Michael Cohen, to answer some key questions as you fill out your brackets ahead of this year's Big Dance.
Let's get to it!
1. Which team, seeded 1-4, is in the most danger of being upset in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament?
John Fanta: I'm going with Kansas. This is Bill Self's worst team of his tenure, in my humble opinion, and the Jayhawks held Hunter Dickinson (shoulder) and Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) out of the Big 12 Tournament. Head coach Bill Self announced that Kansas would be without McCullar – who leads the team in scoring at 18.3 points per game – for the entire NCAA Tournament. Here's the thing: Kansas' lack of depth is a concern, and the Jayhawks enter the Big Dance having lost four of their last five games. But consider the opponent, too: Bucky McMillan is a coaching star with a Samford team that is 29-5 and is fifth in the country with 33.4 bench points per game. Averaging 86 points per game and playing a top-15 tempo, I expect the mid-major to use its depth against the Jayhawks, something normally unheard of. Kansas is in danger mode in Salt Lake City.
Michael Cohen: John is correct. The team's leading scorer, McCullar, was ruled out for the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday, and it's entirely unclear how healthy Dickinson (18 points per game) will be after he was held out of the conference tournament with injuries. And even if both players are cleared to play, how effective will they be in their first game back on the floor? Not only does Samford play with the 14th-fastest tempo in the country, but the Bulldogs also have the sixth-shortest average possession length. In other words, Bucky McMillan's team gets up and down the floor in transition and doesn't hold the ball for very long in its half-court offense, either. All of those factors place Kansas squarely in the crosshairs for a first-round upset. Oh, and don't forget: This game will be played at altitude.
[MORE: 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket here]
2. Which double-digit seed has the best path to making a Sweet 16 run, or beyond?
Michael: One dark horse worth watching is No. 12 McNeese, which takes on Gonzaga. There were only four teams in college basketball this season that won at least 30 games entering the NCAA Tournament, and McNeese was one of them. The Cowboys rank seventh nationally in 3-point field goal percentage and only turn the ball over on 14.2% of possessions, which puts them among the top 25 teams in the country for that category. The experience of head coach Will Wade is also worth noting. Yes, Wade was caught cheating by the NCAA during his stint in charge of LSU, but he still has five NCAA Tournament appearances on his résumé and one trip to the Sweet 16. That Wade and his players are matched against the weakest Gonzaga team in years certainly doesn't hurt their cause.
John: I'm going to the Mountain West with Richard Pitino and New Mexico. Get this: The Lobos are favored in this game. An 11-seed has been favored over a 6-seed a total of 11 times. The 11-seed is 10-1 straight up in those games and nine of 10 teams have won by 10-plus points. Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. are veteran guards who lead the way, while Donovan Dent is a sophomore stud. Pitino's team is 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency too. I like the Lobos to knock off Clemson because I don't think there's a talent gap and Baylor is flawed defensively if New Mexico gets them in the second round.
3. Who is one player in this year's NCAA Tournament that the average college basketball fan doesn't know about, but could make some noise in the Big Dance?
John: Tucker DeVries, Drake. March is all about great stories. He is head coach Darren's son and the 6-foot-7 junior is an absolute bucket who can score in a variety of ways. He shredded Indiana State with 27 points along with seven rebounds and five assists in the Missouri Valley title game. He will enter March Madness having scored at least 27 in four of his last six games. Averaging 22/7/4 per contest, there's just so much to like about him from his microwave shot to his ability to do things off the dribble. I believe he and the Bulldogs can make the Sweet 16.
Michael: DaRon Holmes II, Dayton. The average fan probably isn't tuning in to watch a team that finished third in the Atlantic 10 regular-season standings, but Holmes is a player everyone should know. The 6-10, 235-pound forward averaged 20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game to be named a second-team All-American by the Associated Press earlier this week. Holmes also finished fourth in the KenPom Player of the Year standings behind Purdue's Zach Edey, Auburn's Johni Broome and UConn's Tristen Newton. Holmes and the Flyers should win their first-round matchup against Nevada before what could be a big-time showdown with No. 2 Arizona in the West region.
4. UConn is the favorite to win this year's NCAA Tournament, listed at (+400). If there is one team that has the goods to beat the Huskies and stop their quest to win back-to-back titles, who is it, and why?
John: In the East Region, I would vote Auburn, who was underseeded on the 4-line and should have been higher than that. The Tigers are in the top five in the NET rankings, KenPom and Torvik. They would presumably get the Huskies in the Sweet 16, so they would be well-rested, and Johni Broome can hang in on the interior. Auburn does have scoring depth with five players averaging between 7.1 and 12.4 points per game, something that you need to beat a team in UConn with so many threats. Of the fellow 1-seeds, I don't think Purdue matches up well, but Houston could theoretically shut down any offense. I think Dalton Knecht and Tennessee would pose the most issues of the 2-seeds and Creighton is clearly the 3 that could cause the most issues because they know UConn and have beaten them this season with their 85-66 win on Feb. 20.
That being said, I don't have the Huskies losing.
Michael: John is spot-on with his answer for this question, too. For UConn, the most pressing challenge in the East region probably won't be second-seeded Iowa State, even though the Cyclones pummeled Houston to win the Big 12 Tournament. Iowa State ranks 55th in the country for offensive efficiency, which means it likely wouldn't be able to keep pace with the high-scoring Huskies. That's why Auburn is the team to watch. The Tigers have the résumé of a 2-seed after posting a 13-7 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents en route to winning the SEC Tournament. They have a top-10 offense, a top-five defense and a go-to player in Broome who could give Connecticut some problems. But if UConn makes it beyond the Sweet 16, look out. Houston and Creighton have the profiles necessary to bother the Huskies — and, as John noted, the Bluejays pounded UConn last month — but the only way either of them faces head coach Dan Hurley's squad is if they reach the national title game. And in a one-game setting, it's tough to bet against the best team in the country.
5. What piece of advice would you give to someone who doesn't follow college basketball closely, but is filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket?
Michael: When in doubt, trust the teams that are balanced at both ends of the floor. That's the recipe for success if winning a bracket challenge is the ultimate goal. Dating to 1999 — which is as far back as KenPom's data goes — there has only been one national champion who didn't rank among the top 25 in the country for both offensive and defensive efficiency. That team was Connecticut in 2014, a season in which the Huskies were 39th in offense and 10th in defense but had an individual player, Shabazz Napier, who was capable of making up for any offensive shortcomings.
So who fits the bill in 2024? These are the teams to choose from: UConn (1st in offense, 11th in defense); Houston (17th in offense, 2nd in defense); Purdue (4th in offense, 21st in defense); Auburn (10th in offense, 4th in defense); Arizona (8th in offense, 12th in defense); North Carolina (24th in offense, 6th in defense), Creighton (12th in offense, 24th in defense) and Marquette (21st in offense, 19th in defense).
John: Three rules to follow when filling out your bracket.
1. Don't translate everything that happened during last week's conference tournaments to how you view a team. I fade conference tournament champions more than I ride with them. It's why I am contrarian for not thinking Iowa State, Illinois and Auburn make for a very difficult draw for UConn in the East, because I fully believe at least one of those top four in the region won't make the second weekend. In fact, I predict two of those four won't get there.
2. Find a 13-seed and ride with them. Don't go chalk with the 4 seeds. Why? In 11 of the past 15 tournaments, a 4-seed has lost to a 13-seed in the first round.
3. If you think your're taking too big of a risk by picking an upset, you're not! Be willing to take the educated risk. For upset specials, focus on teams that can score but also aren't turnover-heavy teams. It's why I like Yale over Auburn and James Madison over Wisconsin. Get this as well: In 13 straight years, a seed worse than a 4 has made the Final Four. Again: do not be afraid!
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on X at @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.
