SEC basketball: Kentucky, Arkansas lead a rising league
By John Fanta
FOX Sports College Basketball Writer
While fans are currently focused on football in Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Knoxville, Fayetteville and elsewhere, this is a nice time to set the table for what could also be a big year of basketball in the Southeastern Conference. As for Lexington, we’ll let Mark Stoops and John Calipari keep sorting that out.
The SEC has made major strides since sending just three teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2016, but there is more work to be done, and a showing in March is necessary. This past season, after six teams punched a ticket to the big dance, only Arkansas made it to the second weekend of the tournament. The good news? The Razorbacks provided a major statement win for the conference by upsetting Gonzaga, and at least one SEC team has reached the Elite Eight in four of the last five tournaments.
That trend should continue in the 2022-23 campaign, but it should not be the only goal. The league should have a couple of teams that possess a realistic path to reaching the Final Four in Houston next April. At the same time, there’s also the wrinkle of high coaching turnover in the SEC. Six hires were made in the spring:
— Todd Golden, Florida
— Mike White, Georgia
— Matt McMahon, LSU
— Chris Jans, Mississippi State
— Dennis Gates, Missouri
— Lamont Paris, South Carolina
That’s a lot of movement, and those programs will be trying to take a step forward in the upcoming season.
Of the most intriguing storylines in the SEC? The best player in the country headlines major returning talent, perhaps the most fascinating roster in college hoops and a bevy of highly touted freshmen.
Here’s a whip-around of what to watch from the conference’s top teams in 2022-23.
Oscar Tshiebwe is back, and Kentucky eyes a big March
For the first time since Tyler Hansbrough in 2008, the reigning National Player of the Year is returning to school. After averaging 17.4 points and a national-best 15.1 rebounds per game, Tshiebwe’s return to Kentucky is great for both the Wildcats and the sport. Between his big-time skill set, friendly personality that has resonated with Big Blue Nation and the ability to benefit off his NIL, it’s a home run.
On the court, Kentucky's 2022-23 season will be about avenging the loss to 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s this past March, just the second time the Wildcats failed to get out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 1987. While Calipari has had a massive summer on the recruiting trail and the future is strong, this remains a crucial season for Kentucky, which has not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2019.
Beyond Tshiebwe, the Wildcats welcome back point guard Sahvir Wheeler, who was third in the country and led all power-conference players last season with 6.9 assists per game. The senior will be counted on to be the engine of Kentucky’s offense, initiating and making plays for others.
Those two players provide the best certainties for the Wildcats. What could end up determining Kentucky’s ceiling is the production level of a pair of five-star freshmen in the backcourt, Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston. Headlining the country’s sixth-ranked recruiting class according to 247 Sports, the duo stood out from the perimeter on UK’s foreign tour in the Bahamas, combining to shoot 12-for-25 from 3-point range and scoring 20.3 PPG across four contests.
Based on reports, it doesn’t seem like the strong perimeter play of Wallace and Livingston is unexpected. If these star prospects can mesh off of Wheeler, that could prove to be a lethal combination for Kentucky, especially with Tshiebwe owning the paint.
Another factor for the Wildcats is the offseason progression of senior Jacob Toppin. The 6-foot-9 forward and younger brother of Obi has continued to build up his body as he tries to climb up the NBA draft boards. On the team’s Bahamas tour, Toppin averaged 16.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.0 blocks, all while shooting an impressive 57% from the field.
The supporting cast includes Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves, who showcased his strong perimeter touch while winning the team’s MVP award in the Bahamas. He could be another key weapon beyond the arc. The prime breakout candidate for Kentucky? That's 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Daimion Collins, whose ability to play above the rim is flat-out special.
Another interesting piece to Kentucky’s puzzle will be redshirt senior CJ Fredrick. The Iowa transfer missed all of last season after undergoing surgery on his left hamstring. Named All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in the 2020-21 season, Fredrick shot 47% from 3-point range as a sophomore and was brought in to deliver that spark from downtown in Lexington. The Wildcats are easing him back into things, and what exactly he adds this season is uncertain.
Kentucky has the pieces to contend for a national title, and it’s clear that Calipari and staff have tried to set up options to play off Wheeler and create different ways of scoring. The Wildcats should be the conference front-runners.
Arkansas has the most fascinating roster in college basketball
Eric Musselman is as strong of a program builder as there is in America. On the heels of back-to-back Elite Eight runs, the Razorbacks possess the second-ranked recruiting class in the country according to 247 Sports. Just think about this for a moment: Arkansas had not even reached the Sweet 16 since 1996, and now the "Muss Bus" has been a win shy of the Final Four in two consecutive seasons. It’s been quite a renaissance for the program, and while the Razorbacks have a lot of youth, anything is possible with this group.
What makes the Arkansas roster so interesting? The program welcomes six freshmen and five transfers! That’s a huge overhaul, but there’s no denying the star-studded talent coming in.
How does it all mesh together? That’s the big question for Musselman and company to answer. While Jaylin Williams, Au’Diese Toney and JD Notae have all departed, there’s a rich amount of reinforcements that have entered the program.
Three freshmen — Nick Smith (No. 3 recruit per 247 Sports), Anthony Black (No. 18) and Jordan Walsh (No. 19) — could end up starting for the Razorbacks.
In terms of returning talent, 6-foot-4 junior guard Davonte Davis should take on an increased role and production for the Razorbacks. When he was the first man off the Arkansas bench last season, the team went 14-3.
It will be interesting to see how minutes are managed between the incoming transfers. There should be a competition in the frontcourt between Jalen Graham (Arizona State), Trevon Brazile (Missouri) and twin brothers Makhi and Makhel Mitchell, who both transferred from Rhode Island. Brazile may be the leader in the clubhouse after he shined on the team’s trip to Spain and Italy, going for 28 points on 13-for-15 from the field in one game.
The other key transfer is 2022 AAC Sixth Man of the Year Ricky Council IV, a 6-foot-6 wing who averaged 12.0 points and 5.4 rebounds per game last season. There’s plenty of depth and options for Musselman to work with.
How minutes are distributed, and just how much Smith does along with a tremendous freshman class, will be must-see college basketball.
Rick Barnes has good core, top-20 recruiting class at Tennessee
While Kennedy Chandler is off to the NBA, the consensus is the Volunteers should be ranked in the top 15 when the preseason polls are released. Defense should not be a question for Tennessee. The Vols have finished third and fifth, respectively, in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency in the last two seasons.
Scoring efficiently is more of a question, but there’s a quality returning core and a strong incoming class in Knoxville.
All-SEC first-team selection Santiago Vescovi is back for his senior season after averaging 13.3 points and 3.2 assists per game last year. Having shot over 40% from beyond the arc in the 2021-22 campaign, there’s no question that the 6-foot-3 guard from Uruguay is one of the best in the SEC. Elsewhere in the backcourt, Zakai Zeigler is poised for a breakout year after coming off the bench as a freshman.
The big addition to the program is 6-foot-8, five-star small forward Julian Phillips, who’s the 13th-ranked recruit in the country according to 247 Sports. With his length and wingspan, Phillips has scouts very intrigued at his potential, and he should fit right into Barnes’ system. His ability to finish at the rim stood out in high school, and he should succeed in transition opportunities. The key area for Phillips to grow? His perimeter game. He should step right in and start for Tennessee.
In the frontcourt, the Volunteers have their top two interior scorers back in seniors Josiah Jordan-James and Olivier Nkamhoua. While the solid presence of John Fulkerson is gone, Tennessee should be A-OK in the paint with 7-footer Uros Plavsic also available off the bench.
Speaking of the reserves, it will be interesting to see what Barnes gets from his guys outside the starting five. A pair of four-star freshmen, BJ Edwards and DJ Jefferson, could get some opportunities to contribute. It’s always challenging to gauge what a couple of recruits outside the top-100 rankings will do, but if Barnes and his staff can develop a solid reserve core, Tennessee could make a deep March run. That’s something the program is on the hunt for, having made the second weekend of the big dance just once during Barnes’ seven years in Knoxville (2019).
Jabari Smith is gone, but Auburn should be near the top
While losing in the second round of the NCAA Tournament was disappointing for Auburn, the Tigers still won an SEC regular-season championship and compiled a 28-6 record.
In terms of returning talent, Auburn has plenty of that in the backcourt with Wendell Green, K.D. Johnson and Allen Flanigan. The key for Bruce Pearl’s guards will be their efficiency. Last season, turnovers were a major problem for Green and Johnson, as the duo combined for 138 giveaways. Another year of experience combined with an offseason that’s featured a foreign tour to Israel should only help bring that figure down, but the turnover count could be the single biggest measurable that determines Auburn’s success.
In the frontcourt, nobody’s going to give Auburn exactly what No. 3 overall draft pick Smith delivered last season, but it’s quite clear that Pearl and his staff had a good game plan for life after the one-and-done superstar. Auburn is loaded with depth and versatility in the frontcourt.
The Tigers usher in the nation’s 15th-ranked recruiting class, per 247 Sports, headlined by five-star prospect Yohan Traore. The 6-foot-10 big man from Glendale, Arizona was a star on the Tigers’ recent tour of Israel, leading the team in scoring in the first two games. Morehead State transfer Johni Broome will join Traore in what will likely be the starting frontcourt. Broome averaged 16.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game in his second season of college basketball and looks more than ready to make the jump to high-major competition.
In terms of reserves, the Tigers have a duo that registered a combined 47 games of experience last season in shot blocker Dylan Cardwell, as well as Jaylin Williams.
It will be interesting to see what a fully healthy Flanigan can bring in his senior season. The 6-foot-6 versatile wing missed the first part of the season due to an Achilles injury and dealt with the effects of that at times in the 22 games he did play. We will see if a normal offseason and lead-up to the campaign will help him become a more dangerous weapon.
There’s a new wave of talent for the Crimson Tide
Three of Alabama’s top four scorers are gone, and point guard Jahvon Quinerly’s return timeline is up in the air after he suffered a torn ACL in the NCAA Tournament this past March. That said, the Crimson Tide could still be a top-25 team in the upcoming season. Why? Because Nate Oats welcomes in the nation’s fifth-best recruiting class according to 247 Sports.
The headliner prospect in the group is 6-foot-8 forward Brandon Miller, a five-star recruit from Tennessee who has made a great first impression in Tuscaloosa. On the Tide’s foreign tour in Spain and France, Miller led the team with 22.7 PPG. He could very well be in the mix in a loaded race for SEC Freshman of the Year.
For all the losses in the backcourt, Alabama did reel in Ohio transfer Mark Sears, who is returning to his home state for his junior year. The 6-foot-1 guard led the Bobcats with 19.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists last season. He will offer a needed veteran presence. Five-star freshman Jaden Bradley should also be a key part of the backcourt, while four-star guard Rylen Griffen also enters the program.
Another transfer who could start is fifth-year senior Dominick Welch of St. Bonaventure, who posted 12.3 points and 6.0 boards per game last season. Down low, seven-footer Charles Bediako will increase his role at the center position. He was named to the SEC All-Freshman Team last season, leading Alabama with 51 blocks and 43 dunks.
The Tide will have a very different look and some questions to answer, but Oats has proven his ability to put together a winning team. Expect Alabama basketball to be a tournament team and one that could make some noise if Miller delivers on the high expectations.
Texas A&M looks to build on momentum
Buzz Williams and the Aggies would like to be remembered next March for a different reason than this past March. Even after compiling 12 wins over SEC opponents and reaching the conference championship game, Texas A&M was left out of the NCAA Tournament field. That led to a nine-minute rant from Williams following the Aggies’ first-round win in the National Invitational Tournament.
The Aggies made their point, winning four games to advance to the NIT Championship Game before falling to Xavier.
Now, the Aggies have three of their top four scorers back in the fold. While Quenton Jackson (pro) and Hassan Diarra (UConn) are gone, Williams retooled his roster mainly by adding transfers. Fifth-year senior Dexter Dennis (Wichita State) should provide a veteran boost to the backcourt, while Arkansas transfer KK Robinson and Mississippi State transfer Jalen Johnson could provide depth.
In the frontcourt, 6-foot-8 junior Henry Coleman should continue to increase his production level after averaging 11.0 points and 6.2 boards. Transferring from Duke after his freshman season, Coleman had some big performances in his first season under Williams, going for 16 and 10 in an upset win over Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Elsewhere in the paint, Julius Marble transferred in after averaging 6.4 points and 3.3 boards as a junior at Michigan State.
A big name to watch on this roster is Tyrece Radford. Transferring in last year from Virginia Tech, the 6-foot-2 guard showed his scoring prowess and potential, finishing third on the team with 10.9 PPG and tying for the team lead with 6.2 RPG. That’s quite an impressive rebounding average for someone of his stature, but also a reflection of Williams’ style of play. The veteran coach may very well go four-out, one-in this season based on the way the Aggies are constructed.
Texas A&M has not made the NCAA Tournament since Andy Kennedy was patrolling the sidelines in 2018. As Williams begins Year 4 at the helm, it’s a critical season for him and the program. The Aggies have the pieces to make it to the big dance. They need to back it up and get there.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
