Stats over record? WAC's bold approach to conference seeding
By John Fanta
FOX Sports College Basketball Writer
The Western Athletic Conference announced a first on Monday, introducing a new concept that will seed its men’s and women’s basketball conference tournaments based on analytics.
That’s right. The team with the best conference record won’t necessarily be the top seed in the WAC Tournament.
This formula, which is based off Ken Pomeroy’s metrics system, the NET rankings and scheduling, will judge teams by taking the results of every regular-season game into account. Yes, that means nonconference schedules will help determine who ends up where in the conference tournament.
Smart move for a single-bid league
While this new formula is different, and any change is going to carry potential hurdles, this idea should be embraced.
The goal of any single-bid league in the NCAA Tournament is simple: It’s about preserving the best teams in your conference so that your conference is well-represented in the Big Dance and, therefore, has a chance of acquiring NCAA Tournament units.
This algorithm will reward teams that schedule quality opponents. While there is a counterargument that certain programs might have an easier time scheduling better competition than others, I would rather see teams be rewarded for challenging themselves than receive credit for scheduling sub-300 competition ahead of their league slate.
A team that plays a tougher opponent — and wins — will be rewarded more than the team that wins an easier game. A team that loses a challenging game will be penalized less than a team that loses to a weaker opponent.
If you don’t attempt to challenge yourself during the parts of your slate that you can control, the question is always simple: Why not?
Now, there’s more of an incentive to find ways to elevate the competition level, which in theory can make teams better and more prepared for their conference slate. More than anything, it’s about protecting the top teams.
The WAC rides momentum into the upcoming season. New Mexico State earned a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, upsetting UConn to advance to the Round of 32. While the Aggies — with a NET of 78 and KenPom rating of 80 — were in fact the top seed in the conference tournament and were the best representative from the league for the NCAA Tournament, this formula would shore up those teams that have the best résumés.
The Aggies’ strong seed for a one-bid conference gave them a better chance to acquire units, and $338,887 paid out to a league’s members for six straight years — that’s the payment structure for tournament units — should not be underestimated. New Mexico State doubled that total with the stunning victory in Buffalo over the Huskies.
Had it not been the Aggies in the NCAA Tournament, the WAC could have been staring at a 14- or 15-seed, lessening the chance to pull off an upset, lift the conference’s profile and make more revenue.
This formula also fits better in a league such as the WAC, which doesn't have a double-round-robin format to its conference schedule because the league has 14 teams playing an 18-game slate. The goal of making a league schedule is always to make it fair, but the natural imbalance is present from having so many programs in the conference.
This standings formula is an attempt to serve as the balance for the league to go off, providing some extra weight to high-quality wins and bad losses. At the end of the day, those results paint the profile of a league both analytically and in perception.
What’s also nice about this system is that there’s nothing hidden about it. This formula is transparent and will be updated daily from the time the NET begins its updates every day starting in early December. It will never penalize a team for winning a game, something the NET does when teams beat weaker opponents. Wins are still wins, and losses will still negatively impact your standing.
It’s different. It’s bold. It reflects the analytically driven world in which college hoops continues to progress, which is a good thing. And it’s not as if this is going to cause some sort of dramatic shift because it's based on numbers and results.
Will this start a trend?
We shall see. But in a world in which college sports realignment is an everyday discussion, the idea of balanced league schedules could be heading out the window for more than just a conference such as the WAC. If it preserves the best your league has to offer and gives you a better shot to make money, why not attempt to do something a little different?
If nothing else, this new approach by the WAC means we are talking about this league in the dog days of July, and any publicity is good publicity.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
