College Basketball

Struggling Michigan and Ohio State might sport Big Ten's top NBA prospects

Updated Feb. 5, 2023 9:57 p.m. ET

College Football and College Basketball Writer

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The marquee game on this weekend’s Big Ten schedule took place more than 300 miles from here, in Bloomington, Indiana, where a team that was picked to win the league in early October hosted the No. 1 team in the country for a Saturday matinée.

The latest chapter of an in-state rivalry between Purdue and 21st-ranked Indiana lived up to its billing as a potential game of the season in a conference known for its high-level big men. Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis (6-feet-9, 245 pounds) scored 25 points, grabbed seven rebounds and blocked five shots to nip the Boilermakers in a 79-74 win. Purdue behemoth Zach Edey (7-feet-4, 305 pounds) added to a résumé that already makes him the front-runner for this year’s Naismith College Player of the Year by pouring in 33 points and snaring 18 rebounds in a losing effort.

But the most ironic game on this weekend’s Big Ten schedule played out at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, where two of the league’s best draft prospects plied their trade for middling teams on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. For Michigan, which sits seventh in the conference standings, sharpshooting freshman Jett Howard chipped in 16 points on 42% shooting in a 77-69 win. And for Ohio State, which has lost nine of its last 10 games, freshman forward Brice Sensabaugh contributed 14 points and nine rebounds in what finished as his least efficient outing of the season.

The shortcomings of each team have done little to diminish the NBA outlook for two underclassmen whose positioning on mock drafts continues to improve. Both were described as first-round picks by front-office personnel who spoke to FOX Sports on Sunday afternoon, and there’s a strong belief they’d be the first Big Ten players drafted come June should either decide to leave school early. Centers like Edey (22.4 points per game), Jackson-Davis (19.8 PPG) and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson (18.1 PPG) might run the conference, but versatile wings like Howard and Sensabaugh are what scouts currently covet.

"I think that is spot-on," a league executive said when asked about draft prospects from the Big Ten. "The NBA game has changed to value big, post-oriented centers less."

Most mock drafts rank Howard as the best prospect in the league and slot him anywhere from the back half of the lottery to the low 20s. The 6-foot-8, 215-pound wing committed to Michigan as a four-star prospect rated the No. 43 player in the country by the 247Sports Composite. He chose the Wolverines, who are coached by his father, Juwan Howard, over a strong recruiting push from Tennessee and quickly carved out a role as the team’s starting small forward.

Howard ranks second on the team in scoring at 14.6 PPG and leads the Wolverines in both 3-point attempts (152) and 3-point makes (59), with the latter placing him in the top 10 nationally among players from Power 5 schools. His 38.8% clip from beyond the arc ranks second in the Big Ten and will continue to snare the attention of NBA evaluators more than anything else in Howard’s skill set.

The primary concern about Howard is his subpar defense, a weakness he acknowledged as far back as Michigan’s season-opening media event. Some opponents have exposed his inconsistent on-ball defending for blow-by drives to the rim. Others have exploited his lapses in concentration and propensity for missed assignments. He lacks the versatility to guard multiple positions despite his enviable combination of height, length and athleticism.

There are also questions about Howard’s toughness. It's mildly concerning that he shoots better from 3-point range than he does on shots originating in the lane but away from the rim, where he converts just 37.9% of his attempts. That mark ranks 3.2% below the Division I average. One Big Ten assistant coach knocked Howard for his inability to finish through contact, and Juwan Howard has echoed that frustration behind closed doors.

"My dad started yelling at me and telling me I’m soft and weak and I had to lift more weights," Howard said when asked about his adjustment to the physicality of Big Ten basketball. "All it is, honestly, is just the mindset you come in with, and I feel like I’ve started to flip that switch."

At 6-feet-6 and 235 pounds, Sensabaugh is a far sturdier player. He finished 22 places behind Howard in the 247Sports Composite — though he was still a four-star recruit — and chose the Buckeyes after taking official visits to Georgia Tech and Alabama. His potential flashed immediately as Sensabaugh averaged 17 PPG on 50.9% shooting in his first five appearances for Ohio State.

Like Howard, Sensabaugh is the Buckeyes’ leading 3-point shooter, having made 47 of his 99 attempts (47.5%) entering Sunday’s game. But Sensabugh’s scoring is much more evenly distributed around the court. He’s established himself as a lethal mid-range shooter by hitting 48.5% of his shots from that distance to account for 23% of his total field goals. He’s also attempted — and made — more than twice as many shots at the rim as Howard in a reflection of his downhill aggressiveness.

Sensabaugh leads the Buckeyes in scoring at 17.4 PPG and leads the Big Ten by attempting 35.5% of his team’s shots in conference play.

"He is wired to score," the league executive said. "He is strong and big-bodied for sure. Probably has to learn to be a little more efficient with his shot-taking. He can take a lot of dribbles, but he can put it in the basket."

While Sensabaugh has endured his own defensive struggles, one scout said he should develop into a better team defender than Howard at the next level. Instead, the scout’s biggest criticism was Sensabaugh’s playing weight. He believes Sensabaugh will need to slim down for the NBA.

As mock drafts go, Sensabaugh typically lands anywhere from the middle of the first round through the mid-20s, and Ohio State’s coaching staff is keenly aware of the potential for an early departure. If Sensabaugh does turn pro, the league executive expected him to be either the second or third Big Ten player drafted behind Howard and, potentially, Kris Murray of Iowa, whose twin brother Keegan Murray was the No. 4 overall pick last year.

"We’ve played each other a few times on the AAU circuit when we were younger," Howard said after Sunday’s game. "It’s good to see him just killing it and dominating the league now. All the young guys are really stepping up in the Big Ten this year."

And the NBA is watching.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.

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