UConn, NC State cause sportsbooks to lose big: 'We got smoked'
For the public betting masses, the Men's March Madness odds market couldn’t be going much better. Through two weekends of action, favorites generally continue getting the job done.
Oh, and that one very popular underdog, North Carolina State.
"We got smoked on virtually every game in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight," TwinSpires Sportsbook director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. "It’s been a great tournament for our customers."
Lucas and other oddsmakers help recap the second weekend of March Madness betting.
Top Dogs
The UConn Huskies are making a mockery of every team that bothers to suit up. And in so doing, they’re making a mockery of oddsmakers while making merry with March Madness bettors.
"UConn has killed us all tournament," Lucas said.
In the Sweet 16 on Thursday, No. 1 seed Connecticut belted No. 5 seed San Diego State 82-52 in a rematch of last year’s title game.
On Saturday, it looked as if maybe — just maybe — the defending national champs might get a challenge from No. 3 seed Illinois. With 1:51 remaining until halftime, the game was tied at 23.
Then UConn went on what was a seemingly innocuous 5-0 run, closing the half with a 28-23 lead. But the Huskies then scored the first 25 points of the second half.
So what was a 5-0 run evolved into a door-slamming, 30-0 spree that put UConn up 53-23. Dan Hurley’s squad went on to a 77-52 victory as 8.5-point favorites, moving to 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in this tournament.
In fact, going back to the beginning of its 2023 postseason run, Connecticut is 10-0 SU and ATS in NCAA Tournament games. The Huskies won all 10 games by double digits, and in eight of those games, they also covered the point spread by double digits.
"The Huskies have been an absolute wagon in the tournament and really all year long. So it tracks that they’ve been getting incredible action," Fanatics Sportsbook college basketball trader Shank Subramani said.
And Subramani’s comments came before the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight blowouts. The wagon that is UConn next faces No. 4 Alabama in Saturday’s Final Four nightcap at 8:49 p.m. ET.
Bashing the Bookies
It’s not just UConn beating up on bookmakers. Lucas could point to only one favorable decision over the past four days. And that was after a Round of 32 in which 15 of 16 favorites won their games.
"In Sweet 16 games, we went 1-7 on the book’s needs. The only win for us was North Carolina losing," Lucas said, alluding to the Tar Heels’ 89-87 setback Thursday against Alabama. "The Elite Eight games were a complete whiff, 0-4 on the book’s needs.
"So we were 1-11 overall in the Sweet 16/Elite Eight. It’s the worst March Madness since we launched in 2019."
Dogged Pursuit
Even the one big underdog, the Cinderella story if you will, isn’t helping oddsmakers. No. 11 seed North Carolina State, which three weeks ago was a complete afterthought, is on an unprecedented 9-0 SU run (7-2 ATS), earning a Final Four matchup against No. 1 seed Purdue.
The public is now lining up to bet on big man DJ Burns and Co.
Prior to N.C. State’s Sunday Elite Eight clash against ACC rival Duke, BetMGM data analyst John Ewing noted that action was heavily tilted toward the Wolfpack. N.C. State, a 7.5-point underdog, was taking 69% of bets/71% of money on the spread.
And on the moneyline, it was even more disparate: 88% of bets/83% of the money on the Wolfpack to land an outright upset. As the game neared tipoff, Ewing posted this on X:
Suffice to say, Duke didn’t win.
N.C. State pulled away in the second half for a 76-64 victory. Burns — quickly becoming a national sensation — carried the Wolfpack with 29 points, including 21 in the second half.
Those who played N.C. State moneyline, at prices ranging from +220 to +250, got a nice little payout. A $100 bet at +250 scored a $250 profit, for a $350 total payout.
The Wolfpack and Boilermakers open the Final Four with a 6:09 p.m. ET tipoff on Saturday.
Exception to the Rule
The SuperBook somehow successfully navigated the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. That was in large part due to two results on the first day of Sweet 16 action.
"Thursday was great for us. We did very well with Arizona and North Carolina going down," SuperBook executive director John Murray said.
No. 2 seed Arizona was a 6.5-point favorite vs. No. 6 seed Clemson and lost 77-72. And as noted above, UNC – a 4.5-point favorite – lost to Alabama 89-87.
In particular, Arizona championship futures were a key liability for The SuperBook. The rest of the weekend went reasonably well for The SuperBook, too.
"We had people willing to step in front of UConn in both games, so we did fine there," Murray said, noting some patrons actually ventured to support San Diego State and Illinois. "I’d call it a good weekend overall. No complaints."
Not many of his peers could say likewise.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
The two largest reported March Madness bets have already gone begging.
Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale had a $1 million play on Houston +750 to win the title at Caesars Sports, a bet made in February. Pre-tournament, he came back with another $1 million +750 wager at DraftKings.
Houston bowed out to Duke 54-51 in the Sweet 16.
But I also like smaller bets that pay out bigger money. And a couple of DraftKings Sportsbook customers have just that.
On March 18, after N.C. State made its five-wins-in-five-days run through the ACC Tournament, a bettor put $500 on the Wolfpack at +18000 (180/1) to win the national title. If somehow North Carolina State completes this run by cutting down the nets, the bettor will profit a hefty $90,000.
Ben Fawkes reported on X that another bettor smartly crashed the March Madness party earlier. The customer wagered $1,060 on N.C. State at +50000 — that’s 500/1 odds. Potential profit: a hefty $530,000.
That is some serious ROI.
Granted, the bettor faces an equally serious uphill climb. The Wolfpack are +340 underdogs to beat Purdue outright, after which they’d still have to beat either UConn or Alabama in the title game.
But going into the Final Four, that’s one helluva long-shot ticket to have in your pocket.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
