Why Vegas loves Kansas and UNC, but not Duke or Syracuse
1. North Carolina is the biggest favorite to make the Final Four, but Kansas is the overall favorite to win the tournament.
Kansas is 4/1 to win it all while North Carolina is getting slightly steeper odds at 17/4. (That's +400 and +425, respectively, meaning you bet $100 on KU to win $400.). But in terms of winning their respective regions, UNC has the best odds as an overwhelming -140 favorite (bet $140 to win $100) to win the East. Why? Because the remaining seeds in that region are No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7. That seems odd because the competition, at least seed-wise, seems worse in Virginia's region, but the 'Hoos are only -110 to win, which says a little about what Vegas thinks of UVA and how much it thinks of Iowa State and Gonzaga. Conversely, there doesn't seem to be too much desert love for UNC's possible Elite Eight foes in Notre Dame and Wisconsin.
2. The biggest toss-up is the West.
Oklahoma is the favorite to emerge from Anaheim but the only favorite to have positive odds. Buddy Hield's team is at +190 to win, just ahead of No. 1 seed Oregon, who are getting +210. In what might come as news to those who've only been casually paying attention to the tournament this year, Texas A&M is actually the third favorite (+325) while defending champion Duke is the region's long-shot at +400. But the Dukies are hardly a long-shot. In every other region, the third team isn't even getting +400, proving how tight the West is.
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
3. Wisconsin is the (real) longest shot to win its region.
The Badgers are +700 to get out of UNC's East. Other longer shots: Notre Dame (+600 to win East), Miami (+600 to win Kansas's South), Maryland (+650 to win South) and Syracuse (+650 to win Virginia's Midwest).
4. Kansas is the biggest favorite to win its Sweet 16 game.
The Jayhawks are giving 6.5 against Maryland, the same number Hawaii got against Cal. (And if you remember who Maryland beat to get to the Sweet 16, you'll feel better about the Terps' chances on Thursday night. They beat Hawaii, who beat Cal, in case that wasn't clear.)
(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
5. Notre Dame and Wisconsin is the biggest toss-up game of the round.
The Irish are one-point favorites over last year's finalists.
6. Oklahoma's Buddy Hield is expected to score the most points in his Sweet 16 game.
One book is taking action on various criteria for the eight Sweet 16 games. They include total 3-pointers made, largest leads and then the point totals for each team's best (or second-best) scorer. Fifteen of the 16 players have an over/under of 18.5 or less. Hield's over/under is 24.5. The lowest total: Diamond Stone of Maryland, with an o/u of 2.5.
(Chuck Liddy/Raleigh News & Observer/MCT)
7. Kansas, UNC and UVA are the three main favorites to cut down the nets in Houston.
Kansas (+400), North Carolina (+425) and Virginia (+550) are your tourney favorites, clearly separated from the pack. Oklahoma is next all the way at +900 (which, again, is 9/1 odds), with Oregon and Villanova getting +1200.
8. Duke's odds to win it all provide a great example of the vagaries of sports gaming.
As we mentioned, Duke is fourth out of four teams to win its region yet has the eighth best odds of winning the whole thing. Those are better odds than the Texas A&M team Vegas says has a better chance of winning Duke's region. Mysterious! But not really. Duke lines are like Dallas Cowboys lines: unreliable and set by people who are probably wearing Duke or Cowboys gear as I type and as you read. (The Devils are at 18/1 to win, by the way.)
(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
9. Miami, Iowa State and Maryland are top among the longshots.
According to the odds, 10 teams have a 20/1 shot or better to win it all, which is pretty good and shows how up-for-grabs this tournament is. Among the longest shots, the 28/1 given to Miami, Iowa State and Maryland are "best," while Notre Dame and Wisconsin bring up the rear at 40/1. As some context, Middle Tennessee State was 25/1 to beat Michigan State, although the odds are skewed in a one-game situation vs. a four-game run. In all, 40/1 for the "worst" team isn't bad.
10. What were the pre-tournament odds of winning it all each Sweet 16 team?
This is always fun to look at in retrospect. Here's a list of what each remaining team was getting to cut down the nets before play started last week. Their rank (at left) is where they were before the games began.
1. Kansas (9/2)
T2. UNC (5/1)
T4. Virginia (12/1)
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
T4. Villanova (12/1)
T6. Oregon (15/1)
8. Oklahoma (20/1)
11. Duke (25/1)
T12. Miami (30/1)
T12. Texas A&M (30/1)
T12. Indiana (30/1)
T12. Maryland (30/1)
T20. Iowa State (60/1)
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23. Notre Dame (80/1)
25. Gonzaga (80/1)
26. Wisconsin (100/1)
T40. Syracuse (300/1)
(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
UNC had tied as the second-biggest favorite, along with Michigan State, oops.The Orange were getting the 40th (or 44th depending on how you view the ties) best odds out of the 68 teams, even worse than Michigan, who would have had to win seven games to cut down the nets. You better believe sportsbooks will be pulling for Gonzaga, Virginia, Iowa State and any other team that comes up against Syracuse in the next 11 days. All in all though, not much has changed since the brackets were announced. It's Kansas, UNC and everybody else fighting to knock them off.
