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2017 Rose Bowl: 5 Keys to a USC Victory Over Penn State
Nov 5, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans running back Ronald Jones II (25) celebrates with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) after scoring on a 23-yard touchdown run in the first quarter against the Oregon Ducks during a NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The 2017 Rose Bowl between USC and Penn State will be decided by explosive plays, consistency up front, dynamic quarterbacks and more.
Two of the hottest teams in college football are on a collision course in the 2017 Rose Bowl, providing perhaps the best match up of bowl season — playoff semifinals included.
The Trojans and Nittany Lions provide plenty of intriguing subplots which will no double play a role in who prevails on the day.
Here’s five keys to a USC victory over Penn State in the Rose Bowl:
Control the Big Play Balance
With a downfield weapon like Chris Godwin at receiver and a home-run hitter like Saquon Barkley at running back, Penn State has to horses to turn any play into a touchdown. And they’ve done it with regularity in 2016
That’s why Trojan defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast said the game will be decided by explosive plays. USC’s ability to keep a lid on the Lions will be critical.
Pendergast’s defense has been exceptional this season and doesn’t lapse often, boasting the 5th best defensive Success Rate in the country. However, when they do get caught napping, opposing teams have taken advantage in big ways. USC opponents have logged 17 plays of 40 or more yards, ranking the Trojans 88th nationally.
Considering that tendency, USC may need to lean on the wealth of its own game-changing power hitters capable of evening the score if the defense gets burned.
Penn State has allowed 23 rushes of 20 or more yards this season, ranking 91st in the country, something which should have running back Ronald Jones II drooling.
Junior playmakers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree’ Jackson could also supply difference-making moments.
It doesn’t matter how many long plays PSU hits if USC matches them blow for blow.
Sep 10, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; USC Trojans offensive tackle Zach Banner (73) defends against Utah State Aggies defensive end Ricky Ali
Stay Steady Up Front
The Nittany Lions have used long gainers to feed their nine-game winning streak, but the Trojans have proven much more capable of riding efficient, sustained offensive production to victory. USC ranks 3rd in offensive Success Rate this season, gaining “successful” yardage on 49 percent of plays.
On the opposing side, PSU’s defense has done well to limit opposing offenses to just 38.1 percent success, ranking 29th nationally. They’ve done so by playing in the opposition backfield, tallying 112 tackles for loss and 39 sacks on the year. On nearly a quarter of plays, the Nittany Lions produce negative yardage defensively.
The Trojans have only given up 11 sacks on the year, thanks in part to Sam Darnold’s evasiveness, but facing the duo of Evan Schwan and Garrett Sickels, the quarterback will need his offensive line to be on top of their game.
USC’s running backs, too, will rely on the big men up front to stay consistent against a defensive front more than capable of charging the backfield. Though the Trojans have only given up 56 tackles for loss in 2016, their Stuff Rate of 19.7 percent is subpar.
Consistent line play will allow USC to win on first and second down, making third down manageable and sustaining drives that much easier.
Longer drives and more possession means less possessions for both teams, and with a team as inefficient as Penn State, every less possession matters.
Nov 26, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs with the ball against the Michigan State Spartans during the second quarter at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Swarm Saquon Barkley
Penn State prides themselves on a balanced offensive attack, keeping defenses honest by posing problems downfield in the passing game and on the ground with exceptional running back Saquon Barkley.
The 223-pound rusher rightfully scares defensive coordinators. He’s intelligent with a nose for hitting the right hole. He’s fast for his size — fast enough to break away on long runs if he gets free — and strong enough to shake off would-be tacklers along the way.
Penn State’s rushing attack isn’t prolific, but it’s essential to the Nittany Lions’ success on offense and USC cannot afford to let Barkley take over the game.
Keeping Barkley in check will require a team effort. Relying on one player to take him down would be playing with fire.
As Clancy Pendergast said, the biggest worry about Barkley is getting him to the ground. The Trojans will have to “get a lot of hats to the ball.”
The good news is, USC’s run defense ranks 10th nationally in opponent-adjusted S&P+.
Nov 26, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during a NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC defeated Notre Dame 45-27. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Keep Being Darnold
Since Sam Darnold took over the offense, the Trojans have given every opponent they’ve faced fits on offense.
The dynamic redshirt freshman brought a level of instinctual and improvisational playmaking to USC not seen since, perhaps, Mark Sanchez in 2008.
Coincidentally, Sanchez’ final game as a Trojan involved the dismantling of Penn State in the Rose Bowl, throwing for 413 yards and four touchdowns.
Darnold will aim for the similar results, but USC really just needs the quarterback to be himself and keep doing the things that made his regular season so successful.
In theory, the Nittany Lions are equipped to give Darnold a hard time. They field a solid pass defense — ranked 31st in passing S&P+ — and have averaged three sacks per game. And while Penn State managed just nine interceptions this year, the Trojan QB threw six in his last five games and could be susceptible to a costly turnover or two.
Still, PSU hasn’t faced a quarterback of Darnold’s caliber this season. If he continues to play with the savvy he displayed during the regular season, the Trojans will find joy in the passing game.
Nov 12, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; USC Trojans defensive back Adoree’ Jackson (2, center) celebrates after making an interception against the Washington Huskies during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium. USC Trojans linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (42) and linebacker Cameron Smith (35) join Jackson to celebrate. USC defeated Washington, 26-13. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Start Fast, Finish Strong
In 2016, Penn State was outscored by opponents 173 to 196 in the first half. In the second half, the Nittany Lions outscored opponents 298 to 105.
PSU may dig themselves in a hole early, but they have a habit of climbing out of it.. Of course, USC knows all about that. They have heard it over and over over the course of bowl preparation.
The question is whether or not they’ve taken it to heart.
For their part, the Trojans have generally operated on the opposite trajectory. Outscoring opponents 235 to 100 in the first half, USC has been slightly outscored in the second half, 160 to 166, in large part because their games have been out of hand by the fourth quarter.
More from Reign of Troy
If there’s a worry about USC’s ability to handle a comeback attempt from Penn State, that’s it — the Trojans haven’t had to play too many fourth quarters this season.
Still, they’ve had experience, both positive and negative. In September losses to Stanford and Utah, the Trojans were unable to close the gap against the Cardinal and conceded two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against the Utes to blow a 10-point lead.
Recent results have been more positive. USC scored the go-ahead touchdown versus Colorado midway through the fourth, then held off the Buffaloes with a clock-killing drive. They put away Washington with a stellar defensive effort in the final period as well.
In both of those games, the Trojans started strong and finished strong. Doing the same against Penn State is key.
