College Football

2023-24 Michigan-Washington CFP title game action report: 'We need Michigan'

Published Jan. 7, 2024 4:08 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

One thing is certain in the College Football Playoff championship odds market: The Washington-Michigan game will be extremely well-bet. 

In fact, the matchup could draw a record-setting amount of money.

"Alabama-Michigan was the most-bet college football game we've ever had. I imagine come Monday, we will see something close to that number," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said. "It wouldn't shock me if this becomes the most-bet college football game for BetMGM ever."

And the favored Wolverines could be the need. Magee helps dive into multiple elements of betting on Monday night’s CFP championship game in Houston.

Wiseguys on Wolverines

After No. 1 Michigan topped Alabama 27-20 in overtime in the Rose Bowl, and Washington outlasted Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl, BetMGM opened the Wolverines -3.5 vs. the Huskies. The smart set felt that the spread wasn’t high enough.

"Early sharp money pushed this to Michigan -4.5, where we sit now," Magee said Saturday. "It’s pretty balanced action on the spread, but there’s plenty of moneyline action so far on the Huskies."

In other words, moneyline bettors are more intrigued by the prospect of an underdog outright victory. Washington is +160 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would profit $160 – for a $260 total payout – if the Huskies win the title.

"I'm a little surprised so many people have backed Washington on the money line after Michigan took down Alabama," Magee said, noting the betting market in the state of Michigan rabidly backs its home teams. "We always see lopsided action on Michigan due to the bettors in that state. But people seem to like Washington's chances this week."

Can Michigan’s defense stop Washington’s passing game?

RELATED: Michigan-Washington best bets

Seeing the Futures

Compounding Washington moneyline action, the Huskies have seen significant interest – and at longer odds preseason/early season – in BetMGM’s championship futures market. So, at the moment, Magee has a pretty clear picture of who the book is rooting for well before kickoff.

"Right now, we need Michigan outright more than anything," Magee said, implying BetMGM isn’t concerned with whether the Wolverines also cover the spread. "Washington has become a loss on the futures book since the Pac-12 Championship Game, and we're taking more money on the moneyline for Washington."

All that noted, the overwhelming majority of championship game money will show up in the hours before kickoff. And some of that will likely come in the form of major wagers. BetMGM dodged substantial championship liability when Alabama fell to Michigan. 

Prior to Week 2, a bettor put $205,500 on the Crimson Tide +650 to win it all – a bet that would’ve profited a whopping $1.233 million.

That potential liability became a six-figure positive on BetMGM’s ledger. But Magee foresees more six-figure wagers rolling in ahead of Monday’s 7:30 p.m. ET start.

"I do anticipate some huge bets coming in Sunday or Monday, leading up to the game," Magee said, while also pointing to the direction in which he expects those wagers will fall. "I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see some huge bets on Michigan come kickoff."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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Patrick Everson