College Football

2023 College Football odds: How to bet Michigan-Iowa, conference title games

Updated Nov. 30, 2023 2:24 p.m. ET

It's Week 14 of the college football season, which means conference championship weekend is finally here!

It's been a long grind of a season, and these conference championships are the icing on the cake that all of us fans and bettors love.

Additionally, several of these championships have huge playoff implications, including Oregon vs. Washington, Michigan vs. Iowa and Texas vs. Oklahoma State.

So, which squads will show up strong now that all the marbles are on the line?

Let's dive into my best bets for this weekend's games.

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington (8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC)

On October 14, the Washington Huskies beat the Oregon Ducks 36-33 in Seattle as 3-point favorites.

These bitter rivals will meet again on Friday night for the final iteration of the Pac-12 championship game. The winner gets into the playoffs and earns bragging rights against their rival for years to come.

Unlike the first matchup — which had Washington as a slight favorite at home — this one is on a neutral site with Oregon as a 9.5-point favorite. That’s a 12-point swing in just seven weeks.

How did we get here?

Washington finished the season 12-0, making the Huskies the first team to go undefeated in the Pac-12 conference since the 2011 expansion. Washington is currently on a 19-game win streak, including two wins over Oregon, a win over Texas in the bowl game and wins over Arizona and Oregon State this season.

The Huskies have won 10 games out of the 19 by eight points or less, making them a remarkable 10-0 in one-score games in that stretch. For reference, the Georgia Bulldogs have gone 41-1 on their remarkable three-year run. They’ve only had five games in their last 42 that finished within eight points, and in those contests, they went 5-0.

To highlight this trend even more, the Huskies have won their last eight games by 10 points or fewer. Winning close games is certainly a quality worth celebrating, but it's not a sustainable winning model.

Oregon is 11-1 with a single loss to Washington. Since that loss, they've dominated their opponents.

With seven opponents in common, Oregon won by an average margin of 27, while Washington won by nine.

Oregon is better in nearly every important statistical category, with the gap being very wide on defense. In fact, in their first meeting, Oregon out-gained Washington by more than 100 yards, won the turnover battle, was better on third down and played a cleaner game in the trenches. However, Washington went 2-3 on fourth down while Oregon was 0-3, including two failed fourth downs inside the Washington 10-yard line.

Washington’s ability to neutralize any issue with its offensive skill position players is the reason why the Huskies are so dangerous and should cause Oregon concern.

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr and wide receiver Rome Ozdune have a special connection that makes any defense fearful. At any moment, those two could change a game. When you add in Jalen McMillian, Jalynn Polk, running back Dillon Johnson and their outstanding offensive line, this group is super dangerous.

One thing worth noting is that Penix is not the same player he was to start the season. After five games, he completed 74.8% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while the team scored 46 points a game.

In comparison, over the last seven games, Penix has completed only 59% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, while the team scoring has dropped to 32 points a game. The Huskies have scored 22 and 24 in their last two contests.

I know Washington fans will read this and think I'm just another Oregon homer confident about this game, and they are right. I am. Oregon is playing better and has a deeper roster.

Washington has proven itself in close games, but that eventually catches up to you.

I’m taking Oregon to win and cover this game. I like three wide receiver props as well.

Troy Franklin Over 105.5 — Washington allowed 154 yards to Franklin in the last game, and the Huskies are 124th in passing yards allowed this season.

Tez Johnson Over 75.5 receiving yards — Johnson is a legitimate second receiver for Oregon and needs about 60 yards to get over 1,000 for the season. He’s had over 75 yards in five of Oregon’s last six games.

Rome Odunze over 98.5 yards receiving yards — Odunze has over 100 yards in eight of the 12 Huskies games. He’s the reason this offense is never out of a game, and in this game, the Huskies will need him to step up.

PICK: Oregon (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points
PICK: Troy Franklin Over 105.5 receiving yards
PICK: Tez Johnson Over 75.5 receiving yards
PICK: Rome Odunze Over 98.5 receiving yards

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington Preview: Pac-12 Title

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 16 Iowa (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

I’m eating the points here and taking the Wolverines to win and cover.

Iowa hasn't played a single team this season close to the quality of Michigan, and the Hawkeyes lost 31-0 to Penn State.

Michigan is a poor matchup for many teams, but if you can’t move the ball at all, you’re going to get shut out. I know I’m beating a dead horse here, but Iowa is 128th in points per drive on offense. I marvel at their offensive ineptitude because it’s not that hard to move the ball if you just try.

Michigan ranks second in points per drive on defense and has played games this season against offenses better than Iowa while allowing under 10 points in almost every game.

Iowa’s defense is legit, but eventually, that defense will crumble against an offense like Michigan. Michigan’s offense will grind down Iowa because Iowa’s defense will be on the field too often. Michigan has played defenses close to Iowa’s and has scored into the 20s.

I think this game is 27-0 for Michigan or even 34-0 if Michigan is able to get a pick-six after an errant Iowa pass attempt.

I like Michigan to cover and the under.

PICK: Michigan (-22) to win by more than 22 points
PICK: Under 35 points scored by both teams combined

Iowa's Defensive Prowess: breaking down X's and O's

No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (Noon ET Saturday, ABC)

I think Texas is going to kick Oklahoma State’s butt on Saturday in the Big 12 championship game.

Oklahoma State ranks 63rd in points per drive on offense. State is led by Ollie Gordon, a fantastic running back with nearly 1,600 yards on 6.4 yards per carry. However, Oklahoma State’s rushing success rate is 73rd, and their stuff rate is 116th. So, the rushing attack is mostly a miss with a few hits. The Pokes are playing a fantastic Texas defensive front that is going to bottle up the run game because of how one-dimensional it is.

On the other side of the ball, the Texas offense might be able to name its point total. Oklahoma State is in the 50s in points per drive defensively but has gotten worse near the end of the season. State just allowed 45, 43 and 40 in the last three games.

The Longhorns offense can be outstanding, even with the injury to running back Jonathan Brooks. Texas ranks 30th in points per drive on offense, and the Horns have an offensive line that’s able to push Oklahoma State around.

Also, check out this stat about Oklahoma State. That team is lucky to be where it is.

I think that matters in a game like this. Texas to cover.

PICK: Texas (-15) to win by more than 15 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.