College Football

2023 College Football odds: How to bet Ohio State-Michigan, other Week 13 picks

Published Nov. 23, 2023 11:20 a.m. ET

It’s the final weekend of the college football season.

There are five undefeated teams at the top of the rankings and three one-loss teams right behind them. All are vying for four playoff spots.

Will rivalry weekend put some separation between the unbeatens and the one-loss squads and give the committee more clarity ahead of the next rankings?

Here are my favorite wagers of the weekend.

No. 16 Oregon State @ No. 6 Oregon (8:30 p.m. ET Friday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Last weekend was a game the Beavers had been building toward for an entire calendar year. They knew their team was excellent this season, with a chance to compete for a Pac-12 title. The Beavers had won 17 of their last 18 home games and here was their chance to take down a top-five ranked Washington Huskies football team.

They failed.

Not only did the Beavers fall short, they didn’t play all that well in losing the game. Washington didn’t score a point in the second half and Oregon State was not able to capitalize because DJ Uiagalelei did not play a good game and the Beavers passing attack suffered because of it.

This Beavers squad — fresh off an emotional physical game — now heads to Autzen Stadium to play the well-rested Ducks. Oregon beat Arizona State 49-13 last weekend and was able to rest its starters for more than a quarter after leading 42-0 early in the third. Oregon also has to be motivated by how last year's game played out. The Ducks were up 31-10 against the Beavers in Corvallis before Oregon State rattled off 28-straight points via the ground attack. It did not pass the ball the entire time during the comeback.

To remind the players of this defeat, the coaching staff has put the fourth quarter on loop in the football facility for everyone to watch and remember.

Now, onto football.

Oregon State’s offense operates very well when staying in its own lane. That lane consists of running the ball well, play action passes, screens and QB runs on third down. When this lane is clear of traffic, the Beavers can score points. When the Beavers have to face a run defense like Oregon's and the QB has to win the game, that puts them in an uncomfortable place.

Uiagalelei is completing only 57% of his passes this season and that’s an unacceptable number for a quarterback of his quality. Oregon’s going to sell out to stop the run and play man-coverage behind it. The Ducks' corners are big and the Beavers' WRs are small. It seems like it would be difficult for the Beavers to move the ball in this game. Also worth noting: They score fewer points on the road than at home.

Staying with the home road splits, the Beavers defense allows 13 points at home and 28 points on the road. It is a completely different defense and maybe that’s opponent-related, as the Beavers played Washington State and Arizona on the road. However, they just allowed 22 points to Washington at home, so it just seems like a home-road split thing. Oregon’s offense ranks second in the country in points per drive, and while Oregon State’s defense plays well together as a unit, the Beavers don’t stop the run well. They rank 126th in tackle success rate and don’t generate much pressure with their front four.

The Oregon offense is locked in, and it will score a bunch on the Beavers. Remember, last season it had 31 points in three quarters while going 0-for-5 on fourth down. I doubt that happens again.

Finally, it appears Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith is leaving the team after this game to take a rumored job at Michigan State. We’ve routinely seen teams in this spot play down as players know their coach is leaving.

PICK: Oregon (-14) to win by more than 14 points

How to bet Ohio State vs. Michigan, best gambling odds and predictions

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan (Noon ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Even though this game has had high point totals over the last few iterations, I do not expect that this weekend.

Michigan’s outstanding defense has multiple future draft picks starting at all three levels. The Wolverines rank second in points per drive on defense, first in success rate, fifth in havoc rate and have not allowed more than 24 points all season. In fact, before Maryland scored 24 in Week 12, the Wolverines had not allowed more than 15 points in a game this season. Ohio State’s offense will easily be the best Michigan has seen this season, so it’s fair to assume the Wolverines defense might not thrive as well.

However, Ohio State’s offense is led by Kyle McCord, and he's just average right now. There's only been one game with this kind of heightened environment that the young signal-caller has played in, and that was way back in Week 4 at Notre Dame. In that contest, Ohio State scored 17 points. The Buckeyes scored only 20 against Penn State and 24 against Wisconsin. The Buckeyes' game plan will include protecting McCord by running and safe throws.

But I think the same can be said about Michigan.

Michigan’s offense did not pass the ball the entire second half against Penn State, except one attempt where a pass interference was called. UM's offensive line is that good, and it’s certainly fantastic that the Wolverines can operate an offense this way. However, it shows me they didn’t want quarterback J.J. McCarthy to screw it up with poor decisions.

There’s also a concern in pass protection with their tackles. Penn State’s pass rush was able to get home far too often. Ohio State has a pass rush that can do the same. The Buckeyes will need to stop the run to get off the field, but more run plays should help with the Under.

I’m taking the Under here.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

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No. 15 Arizona @ Arizona State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

This point spread does not match what these teams are showing on the field.

Yes, it’s an underrated rivalry matchup that doesn’t get the national attention it deserves, so I can buy the idea this game is close because of the passion of the Sun Devils. But at some point, the talent on the field wins out and Arizona has more motivation as it tries to achieve a 10-win season. There’s also the chance Arizona will need to win for a chance at playing for the Pac-12. The Wildcats will know at kickoff if they have an opportunity based on the outcome of the Oregon game.

Arizona is playing some of the best ball in the country right now. The Wildcats rank ninth in points per drive on offense and 45th on defense. The Sun Devils are 122nd in points per drive on offense and 108 on defense. ASU plays 35-40% of its snaps in some form of wildcat or swinging gate. The Devils have no reliable quarterback. They’ve scored seven, three, 17 and 13 in four of their last five games.

Also, Arizona coach Jedd Fisch has mentioned recently how the Sun Devils beat Arizona 70-7 three years ago, and I think that score is on his mind here.

Arizona will cover.

PICK: Arizona (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points

Washington State @ No. 4 Washington (4 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

The Apple Cup features a Washington team that has clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game against a Washington State team that just beat Colorado 56-14.

I don’t see a Washington squad that's trying to go undefeated in the regular season having a poor showing. The Huskies offense did not score in the second half last weekend, so that dropped them down to fifth in points per drive, and it is facing a Cougars defense that allowed 44 to Arizona and 38 to Oregon. It even allowed 38 to the Sun Devils.

The Cougars defense cannot stop the Huskies and I think Washington will score at will. Give me the Huskies to cover.

PICK: Washington (-16) to win by more than 16 points

Rivalry Week scenarios and how they affect the College Football Playoff

Colorado @ Utah (3 p.m. ET Saturday, Pac-12 Network)

This is going to get ugly. Like super-duper ugly.

The Utes are beat up, and it has cost them against ranked opponents. But they have managed to dominate bad ones — a 55-3 win against Arizona State, a 34-14 win at home against Cal and a win over USC.

Colorado is bad, and the Buffaloes continue to backslide. They just lost 56-14 to Washington State and their quarterback is day-to-day as we get close to kickoff. Colorado’s defense ranks 120th in points per drive, and if Shedeur Sanders is out, the Buffs won’t be able to score and they can’t play defense.

I think Utah dominates this game. Utah to cover.

PICK: Utah (-22) to win by more than 22 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.