College Football

2023 College Football odds: How to bet Oklahoma-Texas, Week 6 picks, predictions

Updated Oct. 4, 2023 7:59 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Are you ready for some college football Week 6 picks and predictions?

We have a few huge matchups this week, so you know I'll be throwing down some money on the games. With that, here are my best bets for this weekend's slate.

No. 13 Washington State at UCLA (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)

Washington State is flying high after starting the season 4-0, with home wins against Wisconsin and Oregon State. The Cougars are ranked in the top 15, receiving the most national attention they’ve gotten since Mike Leach was in Pullman. They have used the energy of their home stadium to propel fast starts, leading Wisconsin 24-9 at the half and the Beavers 28-14 the week prior. 

This weekend, the Cougars head to the Rose Bowl to face UCLA, and as a veteran of attending UCLA home games as a child, the Rose Bowl will be sleepy for a noon PT kickoff on the Pac-12 Network. 

I’m wagering on the Cougars having the same issues in their first conference road start as the rest of the conference. There have been six instances so far this season with a ranked road team playing its first road conference game. In all six of those games, the road team did not cover the first half. Colorado and Oregon State got blown out early, with the Beavers coming back against the Cougars to make it close by the end. Washington, Oregon and USC were all winning at halftime, but none of the three played their best game in the first 30 minutes. And lastly is UCLA, which played terribly on offense at Utah, down 14-0 at the half. 

The same fate is waiting for the Cougars.

UCLA struggled on offense with a true freshman quarterback at Utah, which is what happens to freshman quarterbacks who play at Utah. This Cougars defense is not that Utah defense and UCLA is not on the road. Washington State’s defense is 73rd in points per drive, 87th in yards per drive and 93rd in rushing defense success rate. Its defense has been poor on third down when it’s not seven yards or more to go, and it hasn't been any better in the red zone. The Cougars defense does not match up with the UCLA offense, which wants to run the ball and is rarely in a third-and-long situation.

Washington State’s offense is rolling this season, but UCLA’s defense is the best unit no one is talking about. It is second in points per drive and seventh in havoc rate. That’s the key to it: Being able to hit Cam Ward and get him to make errors. I believe the Cougars are in for a rude surprise playing this UCLA defense, after a bye, in the quiet Rose Bowl.

I like the Bruins to start fast after their bye week and perform well early in the game. It’s why I’m taking them first half, to give myself some protection if the Cougars figure it out late.  

PICK: UCLA -2.5 points in the first half (The Bruins to lead by 3 points or more at halftime)

No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN)

LSU’s defense is putrid, and the Tigers are on the road for the second straight week against a Missouri offense that will take advantage of the poor LSU secondary. 

LSU’s defense is 121st in points per drive and 120th in passing success rate. The Missouri offense has more success rushing the ball than passing, but in this game, its passing attack will be what scores points. 

Quarterback Brady Cook is completing 74% of passes and has 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions. Wide receiver Luther Burden is putting up ridiculous numbers, amassing 644 yards and 43 catches through five weeks. I don’t know what answer LSU has in stopping the Missouri offense. Maybe you can argue LSU can hit the passer and that disrupts the offense, but LSU’s defensive havoc rate is near the bottom of the sport. That means it does not get pressure, sacks or tackles for a loss at a high rate. 

PICK: Missouri Over 28.5 points scored (The Tigers to score 29 points or more in the game)

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No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 3 Texas (Saturday, noon ET, ABC)

Dare I say it, but Texas is back! 

Texas has arguably the best win of the season, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and if the Longhorns can win against Oklahoma, it’s hard to make the case that they aren’t the title favorites. Texas is playing well this season because it has better players and excellent coaches. Steve Sarkisian got to Austin and completely revamped the roster, adding high-level players in the trenches that have given them the ability to win a game in the trenches, like at Alabama. 

Oklahoma has been fantastic this season, starting 5-0 and dominating its opponents. Its seventh in points per drive on offense and sixth on defense. However, Oklahoma has played five offenses that are nothing like Texas, and I think its defense could be overwhelmed by the size and speed of the Texas squad. Also, Oklahoma’s defense has been prone to a few explosive plays, and it ranks 83rd in tackle success rate. 

Translation: Texas is going to score in this game.

I think Oklahoma’s offense will generate some explosive plays against an outstanding Texas defense that has allowed some of those plays this season. But I do believe the Texas defense can hit the passer and tackles well enough to stop Oklahoma enough times to cover this game. Also, it is worth noting that Texas has been a favorite four times in this matchup since 2005. It has won all four of those games and is 3-0-1 against the spread. 

PICK: Texas -6.5 (The Longhorns to win the game by 7 points or more)

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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