College Football

2023 College Football odds: How to bet Washington-USC, other Week 10 picks

Updated Nov. 1, 2023 7:27 p.m. ET

It's on to Week 10 of the college football season, and the CFP rankings are out!

Now, the season feels like it matters.

Games in November are the ones to remember, and thankfully, the schedule-makers provided us with multiple ranked matchups for the first weekend of the month.

Here are my three favorite games of the weekend.

(All times ET Saturday)

No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC (7:30 p.m., ABC)

The total in this Pac-12 matchup is hilariously high, hovering around 76 points since the opening line hit on Sunday. It's a total fit for the offensive firepower combined with the lack of defense displayed by both teams at certain points of the season.

The Trojans offense hasn’t even been crisp at times and is still sixth in points per drive, third in explosive play rate and has scored tons of points against defenses like Washington all season.

On the other side is the Husky offense, which is first in explosive play rate and fifth in points per drive. Even with the recent struggles of Husky quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who has seen his completion percentage hover around 60% in the last three games, the offense has barely missed a beat.

There was one bad game against Arizona State, followed by 42 points last weekend in Palo Alto.

Both of these defenses post horrific numbers, and it’s honestly surprising Washington doesn’t allow more points.

Let’s start with USC, who came into the season wanting to upgrade its defense. Sadly, there’s an argument to be made that the defense has been worse this season.

USC ranks 97th in points per drive, 118th in tackle success rate and 109th in explosive play rate.

For what it’s worth, the Trojans stop the pass better than the run, which is a positive heading into this game.

On the other side, Washington’s defense is low-key not very good either. It is best at limiting explosive plays and being more bend but don’t break, as it is 112th in yards allowed per drive. It is ranked 97th in third-down defense, 124th in tackle success rate and 133rd in sack rate.

Translation: The Huskies are not going to stop USC in this game, meaning the Over is absolutely the play.

Also — are we sure USC can’t win straight up?

I just mentioned all of Washington’s defensive numbers and its relative struggles in beating Arizona State and Stanford. I know USC isn’t playing its best football lately, but we know it can score against Washington. The Trojans are still fighting for wins, as evidenced by their 14-point fourth-quarter comeback victory over Cal last weekend.

I think we are writing off this Trojans team too quickly, and if this number gets to four, I’m going to take the Trojans and the points.

PICK: Over 76 points scored by both teams combined

RJ Young previews No. 23 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Texas

No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 Texas (noon, FOX and the FOX Sports app)

I don’t like to be on the side of the public 'dog when I'm not getting the best of the number, but I do believe Kansas State is going to keep this game close.

The Wildcats are playing outstanding football lately, especially on defense, where they have not allowed a touchdown in nine quarters. Their defense is seventh in points per drive and 23rd in explosive play rate.

Texas is without Quinn Ewers, so Maalik Murphy will make his second start. Murphy has talent, but he’s not Ewers and the Wildcat defense should be able to slow him down. The Longhorns are also struggling to convert on red zone opportunities, and without their starting quarterback — against this defense — that task is even more difficult.

FINAL / OT

K-STATE 30 · TEXAS 33

Kansas State Wildcats

K-STATE

Texas Longhorns

TEXAS

Kansas State’s offense is roaring right now behind Will Howard, running back DJ Giddens and a solid offensive line. KSU is playing a formidable Texas defense, one that is ranked 14th in points per drive and has a havoc rate in the mid-30s. It will be a cage fight between the KSU offense and Texas defense.

This game is evenly matched, with both teams able to do multiple things well. Because Texas has a backup quarterback, the edge goes to Kansas State for me.

I’m taking the Wildcats to cover.

PICK: Kansas State (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Penn State and LSU are two of Joel Klatt’s CFP sleepers

No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama (7:45 p.m., CBS)

Sometimes, the simplest way to look at a game provides the best clarity for who might win and/or cover.

Alabama is a 3-point favorite over LSU, and it’s fair to look at this game as two evenly-matched teams. However, Alabama’s defense is far better than LSU’s defense and that will be the difference.

Alabama’s defense ranks 17th in points per drive and 15th in explosive play rate. It has already played offenses close to LSU’s in Ole Miss and Tennessee and allowed 10 and 20 points, respectively. The Crimson Tide defense will be the difference in this game because LSU’s defense is stinky.

On offense, Alabama isn’t LSU, but it can move the ball and score points. The up-and-down nature of QB Jalen Milroe does concern me, but against LSU, it doesn't matter.

The Tiger's defense is 95th in points per drive, 124th in explosive play rate and equally awful on third down.

Alabama will have its way with the Tigers, especially after a bye week.

PICK: Alabama (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.