College Football

2023 College Football odds: Week 1 predictions, best bets, including Utah

Updated Sep. 2, 2023 9:22 a.m. ET

The first full Saturday of college football is days away!

I’m starting off this betting season by sharing my favorite bet for Thursday night’s big tilt between Florida and Utah, and I’ll add a couple more plays on Friday morning.

Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Florida Gators at Utah Utes (-4, O/U 44.5)

One of college football’s worst-kept secrets is no longer a secret.

After telling reporters on Pac-12 Media Day he felt good about playing in Utah’s opener, star quarterback Cam Rising is not expected to play tomorrow night. The line and total have teetered back and forth for weeks, and Utah football’s Twitter threw another wrench last Friday by posting a depth chart with Rising listed as QB1. Nice try.

The Utes actually opened as a 9-point favorite way back in the summer, but respected money in the market drove Florida from +9 to +4.5 with the expectation that Rising would not be ready.

Utah is expected to turn to QB3 Bryson Barnes.

My FOX Sports teammates Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Geoff Schwartz and I have literally been texting about Rising for what feels like three weeks now.

None of us ever believed he was playing despite the dog and pony show from Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham.

On the flip side, Florida’s offense isn’t exactly dealing with sunshine and rainbows. The Gators are on a brand-new quarterback, multiple starters on the offensive line are banged up, and I’ve been told this is one of Florida’s weakest receiver rooms in a decade.

So, where does the offense come from?

Beats me.

Assuming there won’t be multiple defensive or special teams touchdowns, I don’t think either offense will churn butter with much success. The quarterback play will leave a lot to be desired and expected Salt Lake City winds in the 20 to 30-mile-per-hour range are not ideal for big passing plays.

I’m willing to pop the "Under" before it crosses through 44.

PICK: Under 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Editors Note: The remainder of this article was posted on Friday after the Florida-Utah game was completed

It’s always nice to start off with a winner.

Utah and Florida stayed "Under" 44.5 with relative ease in what morphed into a rock right after Bryson Barnes’ 70-yard touchdown pass on the Utes’ first play from scrimmage. Our best bets are 1-0, and it’s onto the weekend.

'The ultimate experiment' — Urban Meyer on Deion Sanders' expectations with Colorado in year one

Urban Meyer weighed in on Deion Sanders' expectations in year one with Colorado Buffaloes ahead of matchup vs. TCU.

Colorado Buffaloes at TCU Horned Frogs (-20.5, O/U 64)

This one could get ugly à la Notre Dame-Navy.

TCU has to replace multiple offensive pieces – including QB Max Duggan and WR Quentin Johnston – from a team that made an unthinkable run all the way to the national championship game. There may be some growing pains, but they’ll be nothing like the ones Colorado will go through.

The Buffaloes cleaned house after a 1-11 season and Deion Sanders did his best to flip the roster with a reported 80 new players or so. From what I’ve been told, Sanders was more concerned with getting playmakers than offensive and defensive linemen and that’s a problem in a power conference.

If Colorado can’t block or stop blocks, it’s in for a very long season. Expect TCU to control the lines of scrimmage and wear the Buffs out via the running game.

The other factor to consider is that a lot of coaches don’t like Coach Prime. Don’t think for one second guys like Sonny Dykes won’t run up the score.

We’re a long way from Jackson State, Toto.

PICK: TCU (-20.5) to win by more than 20.5 points

Oregon State Beavers (-16.5, O/U 55) at San Jose State Spartans

Your boy blasted San Jose State +31 last week against USC, and let’s just say it was a damn rollercoaster in the second half.

Senior quarterback Chevan Cordeiro tossed three touchdown passes to keep San Jose State inside the number, and I was impressed with the way the Spartans moved the ball. We’re talking 400 yards of offense at the Coliseum.

Sheesh.

For years, wise guys have circled big underdogs that already have a game under their belt against teams playing their first game. And that’s exactly what we have here. Oregon State will undoubtedly deal with the inevitable offensive rust before it kicks things into high gear, and if San Jose State can move the ball the way it did last week, we should be fine.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

PICK: San Jose State (+16.5) to lose by fewer than 16.5 points (or win outright)

Toledo Rockets at Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5, O/U 46)

Oddsmakers certainly respect Toledo this year, considering the Rockets’ win total opened at 9.5, and they’re catching less than 10 points on the road in Big Ten country to kick off the campaign.

I just don’t love this matchup for Jason Candle’s squad.

If there’s one thing Bret Bielema has restored in Champaign, it’s toughness. He’s built very solid offensive and defensive lines to instill physicality in the trenches for the way he wants his teams to play. And Toledo’s biggest weakness last year was… its defensive line.

Good luck against bully ball.

This game is probably close in the first half before Toledo wears down and new Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer starts threading some needles downfield in the play-action game. Eventually, Illinois will pull away in what has all the makings of a 34-17 final score.

Lay the points.

PICK: Illinois (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points

2023 Record: (1-0, +1.0)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.