College Football

2023 College Football Week 5 predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica

Updated Oct. 1, 2023 8:31 p.m. ET

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Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

Week 5 of the college football season is here, and I like several underdogs to bark this weekend.

As for betting on college football every week, I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I've got you covered.

On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.

Let's have some fun and, hopefully, make some money. 

Here are my favorite wagers for Week 5.

Last week: 5-4-1 (11-14-1 season)

(All times ET Saturday)

Texas A&M at Arkansas, noon, SEC

FINAL

TXA&M 34 · ARK 22

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

Texas A&M Aggies

TXA&M

-6.5

-230

O 53.5

Arkansas Razorbacks

ARK

+6.5

+188

U 53.5

Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (broken foot) looks out for the year, but Max Johnson played well last week against Auburn and has had some flashes in his career. 

I think the Aggies are underrated for the first time in a long time. There's a history of close, wild games in this series, so laying close to a touchdown is risky, but I think the best unit on the field will be the A&M defense.

After twice blowing a double-digit lead vs. BYU and a hard-fought 34-31 loss at LSU, one has to wonder where the Razorbacks are mentally. A&M does have Alabama next week, so there could be a tad bit of a look ahead, but I'll still back the Aggies here. 

PICK: Texas A&M (-6) to win by more than 6 points

No. 2 Michigan at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app

FINAL

MICH 45 · NEB 7

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

2

Michigan Wolverines

MICH

-17.5

-1043

O 39.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers

NEB

+17.5

+655

U 39.5

I'm not sure if there will be a ton of possessions for the Cornhuskers in this game. The Wolverines are among the slowest-tempo teams and play complementary football very well. 

Sure, Michigan hasn't covered a spread yet — that could be in large part because of the lack of possessions. It just leaves such little wiggle room. But defensively, the Wolverines are a problem for opponents. Against four overmatched opponents, Michigan allowed a total of just 23 points this season. 

Nebraska has looked much more functional on offense, with Heinrich Haarberg committing just one turnover in two games, but this is a big step up from Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois. Don't expect many points.

PICK: Nebraska team total Under 10.5 points

Houston at Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m., FS2

FINAL

HOU 28 · TEXTCH 49

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

Houston Cougars

HOU

+8.5

+259

O 52

Texas Tech Red Raiders

TEXTCH

-8.5

-336

U 52

You never know what you're gonna get from a Dana Holgorsen-coached team, but I'm more concerned about what we can expect from the Red Raiders offense without QB Tyler Shough (broken left fibula). We'll see if Behren Morton or whoever is under center for the Red Raiders can rally Tech from a disappointing start to the season. 

But despite the Cougars getting drilled by TCU 36-13, laying close to double digits here seems like a tall task, especially because Houston is now led by former Tech QB Donovan Smith.

I'll grab the points.

PICK: Houston (+9) to lose by fewer than 9 points (or win outright)

No. 1 Georgia at Auburn, 3:30 p.m., CBS

FINAL

UGA 27 · AUB 20

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

1

Georgia Bulldogs

UGA

-14.0

-636

O 44.5

Auburn Tigers

AUB

+14.0

+455

U 44.5

Since beating the Bulldogs during the 2017 regular season, the Tigers have scored 10, 10, 6, 14, 10 and 7 points in six straight losses. 

Oh, it gets better. In its two games this year vs. Power 5 teams, Auburn has scored 10 and 14 points, gaining 230 and 200 yards on 119 total plays (3.6 yards per play). 

If I get beat, so be it, but is Auburn really gonna score two TDs and two two-point conversions, or two TDs and a field goal? Seems optimistic, given this team is lost at the QB position right now and is facing one of the best defenses in the country. 

PICK: Auburn team total Under 15.5 points

Indiana at Maryland, 3:30 p.m., Big Ten 

FINAL

IND 17 · MD 44

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

Indiana Hoosiers

IND

+14.5

+473

O 50

Maryland Terrapins

MD

-14.5

-668

U 50

I hate myself for this bet as I thought I lost my old friend's phone number for good. But this call snuck through caller ID because of the Terps' impending showdown at Ohio State next week and the fact IU actually played respectable vs. the Buckeyes and Louisville.

The Hoosiers might be able to hang around against the undefeated Terps, who have beaten what's probably the worst team in the ACC (Virginia) and potentially the worst team in the Big Ten (Michigan State), getting nine turnovers in those two games. 

PICK: Indiana (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points (or win outright) 

Troy at Georgia State, 7:00 p.m., ESPN+

Georgia State is 4-0 and is coming off a double-digit win at Coastal Carolina, and now they return home to face Troy and they are only laying one? Seems like a fishy line. And that's before you dive into how good Troy has been under Jon Sumrall in these tossup-type games. The game in Manhattan got away from them, but the Trojans defense should give them a great chance to win here.

PICK: Troy (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point (or win outright)

Virginia at Boston College, 2:00 p.m., CW

UVA may be winless, but it played two teams that would likely be favored over BC - NC State and James Madison - to the end, losing by one and three. BC has been a horrible favorite lately, and I think that close call vs. Florida State, in which the Noles were likely looking ahead to Clemson, will be their highlight of the season. The Eagles are very fortunate not to be 0-4 as well, and there’s zero chance I’d lay points here. UVA is live to win outright. 

PICK: Virginia (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 1 point (or win outright)

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE

Virginia +140
South Alabama +135
Vanderbilt +395
Virginia Tech +120

BEAR BYTES

Now it's time to have some fun with my "Bear Bytes."

These little "bytes," as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your co-workers at the water cooler.

Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research:

Six teams received a first-place vote this week in the AP Poll, the first time since the 2016 preseason poll that many different teams received first-place votes and the first in-season poll since November 1, 2015, that six teams received first-place votes. 

Ole Miss vs. LSU

Ole Miss has been tasked with something that's happened only five previous times since 2008, when the Alabama dynasty began. That’s having to play Alabama and LSU in consecutive weeks. Those five teams went a combined 1-9 in the ten games, with 2021 Arkansas’ 16-13 win vs. LSU, which went 6-7 that season, the only win. The Razorbacks lost to Alabama 42-35 the following week to make teams 0-5 in the second leg of the Bama/LSU exacta. 

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt

Virginia Tech has lost nine straight games vs. Power Five opponents, last beating BC in last season’s ACC opener. 

Utah at Oregon State 

Since 2014, Utah has been an underdog in eight road games vs. ranked opponents. The Utes won three outright and went 7-1 ATS. The lone non-cover was a 20-17 loss at Oregon last year as a one-point dog. The five losses came by a combined 15 points. 

Virginia at Boston College 

BC has failed to cover each of its last six games as a favorite and has lost its last four games outright as a favorite vs. FBS opponents. 

Troy at Georgia State

Under Jon Sumrall, Troy has been in six games where the spread was within -3.5 and +3.5. The Trojans won five of the six outright. This is the third straight week Troy will play a game which fits in this mold - beat Western Kentucky 27-24 last week, lost 16-14 to James Madison two weeks ago. 

Clemson at Syracuse

Clemson has lost three of its last four games as a favorite vs. a Power Five opponent, including twice as a double-digit favorite.  Syracuse has been a consistent problem for the Tigers. While Clemson has lost only once in the last six meetings vs. the Orange, three of the wins have come by and 6, 3 and 4 points. Clemson is 1-5 ATS in those six games, each as a favorite of at least 13.5 points. 

Indiana at Maryland

In its last 17 games as a favorite, Maryland has been upset only once - a two-point loss to Purdue last year. However, that hasn’t translated into anything other than a coin flip ATS, going just 9-8 ATS in that span. 

South Carolina at Tennessee

Under Shane Beamer, South Carolina has been a double-digit underdog ten times. The Gamecocks have won four of them outright, including as a 22.5-point dog last year vs. the Vols. 

Since 2021, no Power Five teams have won as many games as a double-digit underdog (four) than South Carolina. Bowling Green, Middle Tennessee, Navy and UL Monroe also have four wins.

Georgia at Auburn

Since beating Georgia in the 2017 regular season, Auburn has scored 10, 10, 6, 14, 10 and 7 in six straight losses. In its two games this year vs. Power Five teams, the Tigers have scored 10 and 14 points, averaging 3.6 YPP. The team scored two offensive TDs, and one of those came on a 17-yard drive.  

Missouri at Vanderbilt 

Last year, Missouri was a 14-point favorite over Vanderbilt and won by only three. In 2021, the Tigers were 16-point favorites over the Commodores and won by nine. Missouri enters this game as a 13.5-point favorite.  

Iowa State at Oklahoma 

Iowa State has covered seven straight and ten of eleven as a double-digit dog. In that span are four covers, including a one-point loss as a 14.5-point dog and an outright win vs. OU as a 30.5-point dog. OU hasn’t covered the week prior to Texas since 2018.

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern 

Despite three games in the last five years where the spread was seven points or fewer, there hasn’t been an upset in this series since 2017, when Georgia Southern was upset by the Chanticleers. 

Notre Dame at Duke 

Notre Dame has won 16 straight true road games in which it was favored, dating back to a 2017 loss at Stanford. 

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica. 

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CFB - Indiana Hoosiers vs. Maryland Terrapins - 09/30/2023

CFB - Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers - 09/30/2023

CFB - Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders - 09/30/2023

CFB - Michigan Wolverines vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers - 09/30/2023

CFB - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks - 09/30/2023

Chris Fallica