College Football

2024 CFB odds: Can you use recent history to influence your Heisman bets?

Published Aug. 28, 2024 10:34 a.m. ET

The 2024 college football season might already be underway, but most teams don't begin their year until this weekend.

Which means there's still some time to get some futures bets in.

One betting market that is really popular among college football bettors is the Heisman Trophy.

As bettors try to wade through the unprecedented waters of the expanded College Football Playoff and further conference expansion, there is plenty of precedent to work off of with the Heisman Trophy. The prestigious award has an 89-year history, but there's been a clear trend that's developed in recent years among the players who've won the award.

Let's take a look at some history first before we jump into the action.

The last 10 winners and their preseason odds

2023: Jayden Daniels (+1000)
2022: Caleb Williams (+600)
2021: Bryce Young (+800)
2020: DeVonta Smith (+10000)
2019: Joe Burrow (+4000)
2018: Kyler Murray (+3000)
2017: Baker Mayfield (+1000)
2016: Lamar Jackson (+10000)
2015: Derrick Henry (+2500)
2014: Marcus Mariota (+425)

When looking at the odds, the majority of winners were not favorites or total long-shot bets. Most winners actually fell between +1000 and +4000 on the pre-season betting boards. And, eight of the last 10 winners had odds of +4000 or better to win the award.

As of Tuesday afternoon, there are currently 21 players who have odds of +4000 or better.

Now, let's look at some more criteria to help narrow the field. This should hopefully also come up with a few names to throw a couple of bucks down on to win the award.

Which positions did the last 10 Heisman winners play?

Eight of the last 10 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks, with Henry being the lone running back to win the award and Smith being the first receiver to win the award since 1991.

So, recent history tells us that it would be smart to wager on a quarterback to win the award in 2024.

All 21 players who have +4000 odds or better to win the award are actually quarterbacks, so this doesn't help narrow the field quite yet.

How many of the past 10 Heisman winners were on teams ranked in the preseason AP top 25?

Each of the last 10 Heisman winners were on teams that were ranked in the preseason AP top 25. That isn't good news for Shedeur Sanders bettors. He's the only player who has +4000 odds or better to not be on a team ranked in the top 25.

CFB Preview: Heisman Trophy odds and best bets

How many of the past 10 Heisman winners were on teams ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP top 25?

You typically only need to look at the top 10 of the preseason AP top 25 poll to find the eventual winner of that year's Heisman over the last 10 seasons. Lamar Jackson was the only winner in the last 10 years to be on a team that was ranked outside the top 10 entering the season.

That narrows the field down to eight players among the group who have odds of +4000 or better. Oregon's Dillon Gabriel (+700), Georgia's Carson Beck (+750), Texas' Quinn Ewers (+1000), Ohio State's Will Howard (+1400), Alabama's Jalen Milroe (+1400), Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart (+1400), Notre Dame's Riley Leonard (+2200) and Penn State's Drew Allar (+3100).

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has made the case for Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin on episodes of "Bear Bets." However, Will Howard was named the Buckeyes' starting quarterback for this upcoming season. Additionally, Andre Ware was the last player to win the Heisman who didn't win every game.

How many of the last 10 Heisman winners were transfers?

Five of the last 10 Heisman winners transferred to the school where they won the award. However, the last five quarterbacks to win the Heisman (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels) were all transfers.

That narrows the field down to five. Gabriel, Ewers, Howard, Dart and Leonard all transferred to the school they're each at. Florida State's DJ Uiagalelei could also fall into this category. He had +3100 odds to win the award earlier in August, but his odds dropped to +6000 after 10th-ranked Florida State was upset by Georgia Tech in Ireland. Uiagalelei's performance was widely seen as disappointing, as he threw for just 193 yards.

If you're still a believer in Uiagalelei, you can catch him at a good number right now. In fact, Daniels won the Heisman last year after LSU suffered a blowout loss to Florida State last season.

Regardless, if you're looking to make a handful of wagers on the Heisman ahead of the 2024 season, recent history says that you should bet on a quarterback transfer who will start for a top-10 team in the nation.

Last year's top three voting results further back up that sentiment. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix finished second and third in the Heisman vote last season, respectively, becoming finalists for the award after they transferred.

So who does that leave us with?

CFB Week 0 Player Props: Oregon's Evan Stewart and Dillon Gabriel

Nix resurrecting his career at Oregon has led some to think that Gabriel will take another jump and have a strong chance to win the Heisman. He actually became the betting favorite to win the Heisman, with bettors heavily backing him. He's the third-biggest liability for sportsbooks in the Heisman market as of July 19, according to BetMGM.

The subset leaves you with Gabriel, Ewers, Howard, Dart, Leonard or even Uiagalelei.

Of course, this isn't to say that the Heisman winner will definitely be one of those candidates. One of the other quarterbacks on a top 10 team, like Beck, or a quarterback on a team outside the top 10 could win the award. Heck, DeVonta Smith just won the award three years ago with +10000 preseason odds.

For what it's worth, FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sammy P likes Dart to win the award.

"I look at a quarterback that threw for over 3,000 yards last year, 31 touchdowns total, most of those through the air. He had some on the ground. He's got like, three NFL receivers, and he's got four offensive linemen that Lane Kiffin has slowly plopped into that line because that was really their weak spot the last two, three years.

"I also look for Heisman moments. There's a game on Nov. 9 in Oxford where Georgia comes to Ole Miss. I know Georgia is awesome, but Georgia's front is not as good as it's been in years past. … I saw the stat that the Heisman favorite has only won once in the last nine years. So this is an award where you don't want to take Dillon Gabriel or Carson Beck."

If you are going off of past history to pick a Heisman winner, then one of those quarterbacks mentioned above is worth a sprinkle.

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