College Football

2024 CFP quarterfinals picks, predictions: Georgia to win, cover against Notre Dame

Published Dec. 27, 2024 12:08 p.m. ET

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Will Hill

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We are down to the college football version of the Elite Eight, as we await four exciting quarterfinal matchups in the coming week. 

The first round was chalk, with all four favorites winning easily and all four covering as well. The games were a letdown in terms of competitiveness. But the atmosphere of having these playoff games on campus is incredible, and hopefully the powers that be in college football will allow even more games to be hosted by the higher seed going forward. 

Now, here's an easy and obvious fix that would help make these playoffs more fair going forward. Just rank the teams from No. 1 through 12 and don’t try to reward conference winners. 

We have the top-seeded Oregon as an underdog and the No. 5 seed Texas as a two-touchdown favorite. With that being said, let’s hope for some better games as we try to find some winners for the quarterfinals. 

TUESDAY, DEC. 31

No. 6 Penn State (-11, O/U 53) vs. No. 3 Boise State 

Will any of these underdogs put up a fight? The No. 6 seed is a double-digit favorite here, so here's a prime example of this tournament's egregious seeding. 

Yes, Boise State standout running back Ashton Jeanty ran wild this year, but this is a major step up in competition from what he’s used to seeing on a weekly basis. Boise State did travel to Oregon in early September and lost by just a field goal in an impressive performance. Penn State demolished SMU in Round 1, but despite a 38-10 win, the Nittany Lions only generated 325 yards on 18 first downs. 

I expect Penn State to win and advance, but I’ll go under the 53 total points.

I think the Nittany Lions' lack of explosiveness on offense, combined with a stout defense, will prevent this from being a high-scoring game.

PICK: Under 53 points scored by both teams combined

CFB Bowl Games Best Bets: Iowa State vs. Miami, Penn State vs. Boise State

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 1

No. 5 Texas (-13.5, O/U 52) vs. No. 4 Arizona State 

Another huge point spread here. Texas won at home against Clemson by 14 in the opening round, as the Longhorns were laying an identical number and needed a goal line stand to cover. 

Arizona State was expected to win just a few games this year and ended up being one of the more remarkable stories in recent college football memory. 

But I’ll take the points here.

The Sun Devils have a great running game and should be able to keep the clock moving if they can run somewhat efficiently. They also do a decent job defending the run, which could put the game in the hands of the streaky Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers. With the big favorites winning and covering so easily in the first round, I think they are inflating this line a tad higher than it should be. 

PICK: Arizona State (+13.5) to lose by fewer than 13.5 points, or win outright

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, O/U 55) vs. No. 1 Oregon 

This is a rematch of the October showdown when Oregon won 32-31 at home. Oregon certainly caught no breaks from the draw. The Ducks were the only team that went undefeated, and now their reward is playing perhaps the second-best team in the country in the quarterfinals. 

I lean toward Oregon winning the game, but my official wager will be on the Over. 

The first meeting saw each team rack up nearly 500 yards of offense and around seven yards per play. The last time we saw Oregon, the Ducks gave up seven yards per play to Penn State and nearly 300 yards rushing. I expect plenty of fireworks here.

PICK: Over 55 points scored by both teams combined

Rose Bowl predictions: Ohio State vs. Oregon in CFP Quarterfinals

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-2, O/U 44)

Here's another example of a conference champ that's probably wondering if they were better off losing their conference title game. 

Georgia takes on a Notre Dame team that is perhaps underrated because critics still judge the Irish on their past failures in big spots. 

But is this team different? Maybe. 

But I’m going to go with Kirby Smart with extra time to prep and a Georgia team that played a much tougher schedule than Notre Dame.

PICK: Georgia (-2) to win by more than 2 points

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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Will Hill