College Football

2024 College Football odds: With Nick Saban gone, which coach will be king?

Published Jan. 22, 2024 1:57 p.m. ET

For the first time in 29 years, college football legend Nick Saban will not roam the sidelines as a head coach this coming September.

It’s the end of a historical, and profitable, career.

Not only was Saban the best to ever do it — with 292 victories, 11 SEC titles and seven national championships — he made you money at the window. Bettors could count on Saban to deliver and Las Vegas was well aware.

"I’ve been a power ratings guy for four decades and I give a number to every single player on every team," longtime Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White told FOX Sports. "I also give grades to all the head coaches."

"If coach has an A or A- grade, and I’m in between 1 and 1.5 on a player, I’ll side with the higher rating under the best coaches. Players get the benefit of the doubt. That probably happens with 10 to 15 players per team, so that can be an additional 5 to 7.5 points on a team’s power rating with a great coach.

"Those guys got 1.5 at Alabama and that’s a testament to Saban."

Per Evan Abrams of the Action Network, Saban is one of the 10 best coaches against the spread (ATS) over the last 20 years. Abrams was a true peach for this story, sharing the data he mined at Action’s Bet Labs database.

BEST ATS COACHES SINCE 2005:

Jim Tressel 51-23-1 (69%)
Chris Klieman 53-25-2 (68%)
Willie Fritz 85-56-2 (60%)
James Franklin 94-65-5 (59%)
Hugh Freeze 79-54-1 (59%)
Mike Gundy 137-101 (58%)
Brian Kelly 130-103-8 (56%)
Ken Niumatalolo 103-82-5 (56%)
Kyle Whittingham 127-103-5 (55%)
Nick Saban 126-103 (55%)

"Klieman is my favorite coach," White admitted. "His players overachieve more than any team in the country. He’s developing two and three-star recruits into three and four stars with the occasional five. It’s very, very impressive.

"Willie Fritz is a tremendous coach, too. Great hire for Houston."

Personally, I was shocked to see James Franklin so high on the list. Maybe it’s because I’ve made so much money over the years betting against Penn State in important games. I definitely should’ve asked Abrams to get me Franklin’s ATS record against Michigan and Ohio State since he took the job.

Maybe another story for another day.

"James Franklin takes care of business," White countered. "Look at that record over a decent sample size. He’s almost 30 games over .500 against the number. That’s no accident. He’s an overachiever despite some of the narratives."

Franklin is no stranger to running up the score, either. Two recent examples come to mind where he refused to take his foot off the accelerator.

Penn State scored 35 fourth-quarter points at Illinois to win 63-24 and cover 28.5 points in 2018. This past season, Franklin’s backup quarterback Beau Pribula fake kneed and threw a 30-yard touchdown strike in the final minutes to cover a big number (26.5) against Northwestern.

It’s probably a decent idea to monitor Klieman, Fritz, Franklin, Freeze, Gundy, Kelly, Niumatalolo and Whittingham going forward. I know I’ll have their names written on a Post-It note near my computer this fall.

As for White’s ratings, he’s got Georgia's Kirby Smart, Texas' Steve Sarkisian, Ohio State’s Ryan Day and Clemson's Dabo Swinney among his "A" coaches.

But who’s favored to be the next king of college football?

"Smart has all the tools to be the next Saban," White said. "Georgia is a machine and Smart is an outstanding recruiter. They were one of the four best teams in the country but lost to Alabama at the worst possible time."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.