College Football

2024 College Football picks Week 4: Back Michigan, Oklahoma State to cover

Updated Sep. 19, 2024 1:28 p.m. ET

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The college football season seems to be flying by already, right?

Here we are, in Week 4, and we've already got some huge games on tap.

It's mainly due to conference realignment, but still.

In addition, USC will make its Big Ten debut this Saturday, as it faces Michigan in the big house.

Let's get into my picks for this week.

(All times ET)

Saturday, Sept. 21

Utah @ Oklahoma State (4 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

You will not find a bigger fan of the Utah program who did not attend than me. I covered Utah for six seasons on Pac-12 radio with a co-host who played for the Utes.

I love everything head coach Kyle Whittingham’s program has become: tough, physical, gritty and a pain in the ass for every team it plays.

With that being said, we have to discuss the elephant in the room.

Utah has not won a big road game since the Utes beat 17th-ranked Arizona State in 2019. That Sun Devil team finished less than .500 in conference play for the rest of that season.

Quarterback Cam Rising’s home and road win-loss record drives the point home even further.

He's 13-0 when starting a game at home; he's 7-6 when starting a game on the road or at a neutral site. There are two Rose Bowl losses in the six overall, with Rising not being able to finish those games. There are two road losses to ranked teams, including Oregon and UCLA in 2022. There’s the Florida loss that can be pinned on a poor defensive performance and a late Rising interception as Utah looked to take the lead.

The final road loss was at Oregon State in 2021.

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It's difficult to come up with concrete reasons why Utah has struggled on the road compared to at home. The Utes do the things one would think are important on the road. They are excellent in the trenches and play good defense. Rising throws a tad more interceptions, but it’s not anything eye-popping.

The reason I believe Utah struggles on the road is its inability to generate explosive passing plays, which is something you need against a quality opponent in a road setting. Rising has only nine touchdown passes in his six road losses. Playing the dink and dunk game on offense takes too long and leaves you vulnerable to making mistakes on offense.

Utah might catch a break with Oklahoma State’s defense, though. The Pokes have allowed the third-most plays of 10 yards or more through three weeks of the season. They are 125th in plays allowed over 20 yards.

My point is that this Pokes defense can be had, but Utah has not shown the ability over the years to be consistent in throwing down the field.

I have worried about the Utes' run defense as they’ve had more defensive linemen and linebackers go to the NFL. It just hasn’t been as good, and on paper, Oklahoma State should be able to run the ball. However, it has been a poor rushing squad so far this season. Ollie Gordon is averaging only 3.5 yards per attempt compared to 6.1 last season. It’s an issue for the Pokes, and it’s difficult to know whether they can just go back to rushing the ball well this weekend.

That being said, I have to take the points with Oklahoma State in this game with Utah’s track record of playing away from home with Rising as the quarterback. It’s not a small sample size either.

PICK: Oklahoma State (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points, or win outright

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USC @ Michigan (3:30 p.m., CBS)

How does the saying go? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Well, I must feel no shame because I’m going back to Michigan this weekend after the Wolverines did not cover against Texas or Arkansas State in their last two games.

Michigan is the right side, even if it’s ugly. The Wolverines benched Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji because Warren could not stop throwing the ball to the other team. While Orji might not be the passer that Warren was supposed to be, this does not mean the offense won't be able to function with Orji taking over.

Michigan might turn its offense into an RPO, QB-run and play-action pass squad. USC’s run defense has not been challenged this season, and Michigan has the bulk upfront to possibly make this game ugly by running the ball.

The Trojan offense has been crushing it with Miller Moss through two games, and it is off a bye.

SC will have something for Michigan, and if the Trojans start fast, it might be over for the Wolverines because they do not have the ability to come back from a large deficit.

However, I’m not sure USC is ready to face a Michigan defense that’s this physical.

That physicality bothered USC last season, and without circus plays, I don’t know if SC can move the ball that well against UM.

Finally — and this is one of the toughest parts about handicapping a game — you have to consider the emotions of college football players.

Everyone is "out" on Michigan after getting blown out by Texas and narrowly beating Arkansas State. This is the time to buy in on Michigan. The Wolverines still have talented players and a coaching staff that still knows how to coach. I like Michigan to cover.

PICK: Michigan (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points, or win outright

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UCLA @ LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

Sometimes, finding a good fade is just as good as finding a good handicap.

I’ve faded UCLA in their first two games and easily covered, and I’m going back to the well for a third straight UCLA game.

UCLA is in shambles, and that might be putting it politely. It beat Hawaii 16-13 in Week 1, then had a bye in Week 2 and came out of the bye to lose 41-13 to Indiana in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Indiana dominated the Bruins all over the field.

Fast-forward to Tuesday and a UCLA cornerback reported to the media that coaches had to stop practice because the energy was too low. Wednesday brought reports that UCLA might be without its best and most senior defensive player in Jay Toia at tackle. Vibes are bad and with a new coaching staff and a lack of veteran players, it’s not getting better any time soon. Now UCLA travels to Baton Rouge to play LSU. The high temperature for Saturday is 89 degrees.

The Bruins are going to wilt over 60 minutes playing against LSU.

I know the counterpoint to my wager will be "but LSU’s defense …" Are Hawaii and Indiana better on defense than LSU? UCLA’s offense is 116th in points per drive after two games and while LSU has had its issues, I don’t think UCLA can exploit any of them. LSU is bigger, faster and stronger.

I like LSU to dominate this game.

PICK: LSU (-24) to win by more than 24 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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