College Football

2024 College Football picks Week 7: Bet Penn State, Iowa to cover

Published Oct. 10, 2024 6:31 p.m. ET

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

College football Week 7 is already here, and like I say every year, time flies when you're having football.

But what makes this time especially fun is watching a few go through the hoop with some winning wagers.

I'm ready to try my hand again this week. Lucky No. 7, right? Let's dive into it.

(All times ET)

SATURDAY, OCT. 12

Washington @ Iowa (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)

I’m just wagering on a situation, and that is Iowa winning after a loss, paired with Washington on the road after a huge emotional win.

Iowa got dominated by Ohio State after playing the Buckeyes close in the first half. No surprise there. But I don’t think that result changes much of how we should view this game.

Washington is not Iowa. Iowa’s offense has the same issues as usual. The Hawkeyes cannot pass the ball with any consistency. They are, however, much better than last season — which isn’t saying much.

Washington’s rushing defense has been good this season, but it’s worth noting that this Iowa team will be one of the best offenses it has faced all season. The yards per play of the Washington opponents rank 113th, 17th (lost to Washington State), 70th (lost to Rutgers), 106th and 120th.

Iowa is 78th, and that’s with three teams the Hawkeyes have faced having top-18 defenses.

I think Iowa’s offense has a bounce-back performance this week against Washington’s defense.

On the other side, there is an Iowa defense that tends to play well against everyone that isn’t Ohio State. The Hawkeyes are 16th in points per drive and are in line with three of the Huskies' previous opponents, where Washington is averaging 23.3 points in conference play.

Washington has had one road game and all the team's penalty and play-calling issues showed up.

I think Iowa bounces back this weekend.

PICK: Iowa (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Colin & JMac's Big Bets: Iowa (-2.5) wins, USC (+5) upsets Penn State, Oregon (+3) wins

California @ No. 22 Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Again — I’m just wagering on a situation here.

Cal was up 35-10 and 38-18 to Miami last Saturday night at home and ended up losing 39-38.

The Bears were basically outscored 29-3 in the final quarter. Now, Cal must travel across the country for the third time in just six games (Auburn and Florida State), while trying to mentally rebound from that loss.

Pittsburgh is 5-0 and playing good ball. The Panthers are an offensive-minded team, ranking seventh in points per drive and only 75th on the other side.

Pitt has generated the most plays of 20 or more yards in the country on offense. Cal’s offense is the opposite, coming in 101st in points per drive.

While Cal’s defense is always good under Wilcox, it’s hard to back a team that can’t score on the road after a big emotional loss. I like Pittsburgh to win and cover.

PICK: Pittsburgh (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Washington vs. Iowa Big Noon Kickoff

No. 4 Penn State @ USC (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Lincoln Riley joined USC in the winter months of 2021.

In his first season, his Trojans went 11-3, with quarterback Caleb Williams winning the Heisman. Last season, Riley’s squad started the season 6-0 against a soft schedule, only facing one opponent with a winning record. Once the Trojans got into the meat of the schedule, they faltered, losing games to Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon, Washington and UCLA.

The theme of these losses was all the same: The opponent they were facing was more physical at the point of attack, both on the offensive and defensive lines. USC failed to cover in four of those five losses, with the only cover coming at Oregon with a late touchdown.

Fast-forward to 2024, and USC has faced two teams capable of playing competent ball on both sides, in Michigan and in Minnesota. USC lost to both and failed to cover in both games.

SC fans might point to the LSU win as evidence that USC losing to "better" teams isn’t a trend anymore, but LSU’s defense is not good. The Tigers cannot stop anyone. They are not the same as the other teams mentioned.

Penn State comes to the Coliseum on Saturday as a team that can do both.

The Nittany Lions can win on the offensive and defensive lines. Their defense ranks ninth in points per drive, sixth in DL havoc rate and eighth in pressure rate. SC's offensive line is poor. It has to be the worst group of offensive linemen on a Lincoln Riley team. The Trojans OL ranks 129th in pressure rate. Quarterback Miller Moss is always running for his life.

In short, I do not see how USC is able to move the ball consistently against Penn State.

The Trojans' defensive coordinator change heading into this season has paid off. They are a better group this season. They tackle better and are in the right spot more often than not. But they cannot hold up for an entire game without the offense giving them some help.

I do worry about Penn State’s offense leaving you wanting more at times, but I think the Nittany Lions defense will give them short fields and some turnovers that will help get Penn State into the end zone. I like Penn State to cover.

PICK: Penn State (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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