College Football

2024 College Football Playoff odds: Do lines suggest CFP format is flawed?

Published Dec. 24, 2024 12:00 p.m. ET

When the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket was announced, there was much controversy revolving around who got in and who was left out.

Then, four first-round blowouts only served to exacerbate that conversation.

Did the CFP selection committee get it right? Should more SEC teams have made it in the field? Should four of the conference champions have received a first-round bye?

Well, heading into the quarterfinals, the odds say the remaining teams that did not win a conference title — No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State — have a better chance at winning the national title than the four remaining conference champions — No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the at-larges are at -225 to win the CFP, while the conference champions are at +180.

In addition, of the 16 possible CFP title game matchups, no matchup including No. 3 BSU or No. 4 ASU has better than +3000 odds of taking place.

Games involving BSU and ASU also occupy spots 10-16 on the oddsboard, with BSU vs. ASU holding +20000 odds of representing the College Football Playoff title game.

CFP Name the Finalists 2024-2025

Texas vs. Penn State: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Georgia vs. Texas: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Texas vs. Notre Dame: +650 (bet $10 to win $76 total)
Penn State vs. Ohio State: +650 (bet $10 to win $76 total)
Oregon vs. Penn State: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Georgia vs. Ohio State: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Oregon vs. Georgia: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Oregon vs. Notre Dame: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Boise State vs. Texas: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Boise State vs. Ohio State: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Arizona State vs. Penn State: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Georgia vs. Arizona State: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Oregon vs. Boise State: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Arizona State vs. Notre Dame: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Boise State vs. Arizona State: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)

Finally, heading into the quarterfinals, of the top four seeds — four of the five conference champions, excluding ACC champion Clemson, which was the 12-seed and lost in the first round to Texas — only one is favored.

SEC champion Georgia is a 1.5-point favorite over Notre Dame. But after that, Big Ten champion Oregon is a 2.5-point underdog to Ohio State, Boise State is an 11-point underdog to Penn State, and Arizona State is a 14-point underdog to Texas.

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