College Football

2024 Penn State football predictions: Ranked No. 14 by RJ Young

Updated Aug. 12, 2024 10:25 a.m. ET

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Penn State Nittany Lions ranking: 14/134

[Check out RJ Young's ultimate 134 college football rankings here]

Conference ranking: 4th in Big Ten (+500 to win conference)
Teams ahead of them: Tennessee (13), Utah (12), Oklahoma (11), Missouri (10), Alabama (9)
Teams behind them: Oklahoma State (15), Notre Dame (16), USC (17), Kansas State (18), Clemson (19)

[Penn State 2024 schedule]

RJ's take: In 10 years as head coach at Penn State, James Franklin has had just one losing season. In fact, he’s had just two losing seasons as a head coach anywhere, and his first job was at Vanderbilt.

He’s won nine games or more eight times. He’s won 10 games or more five times in the last eight years. He’s produced Micah Parsons, Saquon Barkley and five trips to New Year’s Six Bowl games. There’s an argument that he’s done more with less, too: Franklin has produced just three All-Americans while Lincoln Riley has produced seven. Both have the same number of CFP semifinal wins, and Franklin has yet to coach in one.

Yet that’s not the story in State College. The sad story in Happy Valley is Franklin hasn’t done enough. And by enough they mean beat Ohio State and Michigan, and when beating those two programs is the difference between playing in the CFP or being relegated to the nearest NY6 designation, it’s difficult not to hold a grudge.

It’s not just that Ohio State and Michigan have ruled the Big Ten for the better part of two decades or that Penn State has just one conference title since the Big Ten expanded to 14 teams. It’s that James Franklin is 4-16 against Ohio State and Michigan with just one of those wins coming against the Buckeyes, and he’s never doubled up the kings of the conference in any one year.

Given that Ohio State and Michigan have received all 10 of the Big Ten’s invitations to the CFP — one for every year Franklin’s been at PSU — the move to fire Mike Yurcich and hire Andy Kotelnicki to run the offense makes sense, even if that means a fifth OC at Penn State in seven years. Never mind that each of his last two defensive coordinators have taken head coaching gigs in the ACC. Franklin needs results, and 11 wins won’t satisfy the 106,000 Beaver Stadium faithful unless they include wins against Ohio State and Michigan.

In 2024, they don’t see Michigan or a division that boxes them into third place. They see Ohio State and USC. They’ll get the full dose from West Virginia in their opener, but they should be favored in 10 of their 12 games. If there’s a breakthrough year to be had, they don’t get much better than this one.

Penn State's Win Total Odds: Over 10.5 (+140) Under 10.5 (-165)

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