College Football

2024 SEC football predictions: Projections and players to watch

Updated Aug. 30, 2024 8:59 a.m. ET

Nick Saban might have retired, but the new 16-team SEC is as spicy as ever.

That’s because the conference has gotten even stronger — if that were possible — with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma. Saban’s successor, Kalen DeBoer, most recently led Washington to the College Football Playoff National Championship and is a proven winner. Georgia, which won titles in 2021 and 2022, is a heavy favorite to bring home another national title, and the conference boasts a handful of Heisman Trophy hopefuls.

Additionally, the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry is back, Lane Kiffin has an Ole Miss team that could be poised for a surprise title run, and Missouri hopes to pick up where it left off last season after upsetting Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Not to mention, there will most likely be multiple teams from this conference that will make it to the new expanded 12-team CFP.

There’s a lot to be excited about as Week 1 nears. Here’s a preview of what to expect in the SEC this season:

Top five conference games to watch (in chronological order):

1. Tennessee at Oklahoma (Sept. 21): The Sooners’ SEC debut is a big one when Tennessee comes to town. It will be a homecoming for Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel, who played quarterback for and later coached at OU. The conference is stacked at quarterback and this will be an early duel between two of them when Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava and Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold are put to the test.

2. Georgia at Alabama (Sept. 28): Last year, Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC title game, denying the Bulldogs a chance at winning three national championships in a row. Granted, things are different now with the DeBoer era beginning, but this will be a huge early opportunity for the new-look Crimson Tide hosting one of its greatest rivals — which just so happens to be the No. 1 team in the country — so early in the season.

3. Ole Miss at LSU (Oct. 12): If this game is anything like last year’s meeting, we’re all in for a treat. Last September, the Rebels scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to defeat the Tigers at home, 55-49. This year, the game will be played at Death Valley, where Ole Miss hasn’t won since 2008. But Kiffin’s team has a chance to make some history and early CFP noise with quarterback Jaxson Dart and a group of talented transfers.

4. Georgia at Texas (Oct. 19): This will be the first meeting between the new SEC foes since the Longhorns beat the Bulldogs in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. That was the game where, as the confetti showered down on the field during the trophy presentation, former Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger declared Texas was back. It has taken a few more years for that to feel true — the Longhorns went to their first CFP last year in coach Steve Sarkisian’s third season. Unfortunately for the Horns, however, this game comes one week after the Red River Rivalry, but we can all expect a rowdy environment for a matchup that we could end up seeing again in the SEC Championship Game.

5. Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30): Happy Thanksgiving to us all because one of the most intense rivalries in college football returns this holiday weekend. It will be the first time the Longhorns and Aggies have played since 2011 and there should be no question that Kyle Field will be absolutely rocking. Even juicier than the matchup itself would be if a playoff berth was on the line.

Top five players to watch:

1. Carson Beck, QB, Georgia: Beck is not only back for a fifth season, but he’s currently a Heisman Trophy front-runner and the projected first-overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. A year ago, he threw for 3,941 yards with 24 touchdowns to just six interceptions. The only two quarterbacks with more yards (Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix) are now in the NFL. He won’t have star tight end Brock Bowers this season, but he’s still got plenty of offensive weapons to have a lethal offense.

2. Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas: Ewers returns for his third year as a starter, and expectations are greater than ever. He has shown improvement every year, but now needs to make the jump and prove why he’s considered to be a Heisman contender and first-round draft pick. Last year, Ewers led the Longhorns to the CFP and was one complete pass away from playing in the national championship. He lost all of his favorite wide receivers to the NFL, though the Longhorns added Isaiah Bond and Silas Bolden via the transfer portal, and will be without starting running back CJ Baxter (knee). How he rallies the offense and leads the team will be key to the program’s success in its new conference.

3. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama: When Saban retired, Milroe could have left for the NFL or transferred to another title contender. He had the résumé to go anywhere after leading Alabama to the SEC title and a CFP berth in 2023. Instead, he decided to stay in Tuscaloosa and welcome DeBoer and the new Crimson Tide coaching staff. Milroe loved playing for Saban but now gets to learn under the coaches who worked with last year’s Heisman runner-up and expand his game differently.

4. Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss: While teams like Georgia, Texas, Ohio State and Oregon are owning most of the preseason headlines, Ole Miss has one of the more talented rosters in college football right now. The group is led by Dart, who is entering his third season as the Rebels’ starter. One of the reasons he came back for another year is to take the team to its first CFP, and he has a very good chance of doing that with the roster Kiffin has assembled. It begins with Dart, though, who is poised, confident, and coming off a big year (3,364 passing yards and rushing for 389 with a total of 31 scores).

5. Jackson Arnold, QB, Oklahoma: All eyes are on this first-year starter as OU enters the SEC. Arnold might be young and inexperienced, but coach Brent Venables said at SEC media days this summer that he believes the 19-year-old is ready to take on the highs and lows of a season. "He’s ready for his opportunity and his moment," Venables said in July. Last year, Arnold backed up Dillon Gabriel, who has since transferred to Oregon, and appeared in seven games. He made his first career start in the Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona where he threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns, but also had three picks. Life is going to come at Arnold fast in the SEC, where the Sooners face Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU.

Top five freshmen to watch:

1. Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn: Auburn had the worst passing offense in the SEC last year, averaging 162.2 yards per game and scoring a total of just 18 touchdowns. Enter Coleman — the No. 2-ranked wide receiver in the Class of 2024, per 247Sports Composite Ratings — who is expected to become the top target for QB Payton Thorne. Coleman enrolled early and was a bright spot in the spring game, scoring the scrimmage’s only touchdown on a 34-yard pass from Thorne and then earning offensive MVP honors. "They’re trusting me to win on one-on-one balls and just go get it," Coleman said after the game.

2. Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama: A deep threat poised to be the next great Alabama wide receiver. Williams — a five-star recruit, ranked No. 2 in the state of Alabama by 247Sports behind Coleman — has already drawn comparisons to his Crimson Tide predecessors Amari Cooper and DeVonta Smith. He’s a two-time Gatorade Player of the Year and caught 72 passes for 1,324 yards with 19 touchdowns as a senior for Saraland (Ala.) High School.

3. Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia: It’s always difficult to break into Georgia’s starting lineup, especially as a true freshman. But Robinson has a shot here after the Bulldogs lost former two-year starter Kamari Lassiter to the NFL. Robinson was a two-year starter at IMG Academy, a five-star prospect, the No. 1 player out of Florida, and is doing everything in fall camp to get himself in the mix early on.

4. Colin Simmons, DE, Texas: The Longhorns might have lost their biggest defensive names to the NFL in T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, but Sarkisian still has plenty of talent and depth — maybe even enough to have one of the best pass-rushing units in the SEC this season. There’s Barryn Sorrell, Ethan Burke, transfer Trey Moore, and you can include former five-star recruit Colin Simmons in that conversation. Simmons is lauded for his quickness and explosiveness, and arrives in Austin fresh off winning consecutive high school state championships and defensive MVP honors.

5. LJ McCray, DL, Florida: The No. 1 edge recruit in the Class of 2024, McCray clocks in at 6-foot-6 and 264 pounds entering his first college season. Gators coach Billy Napier said in the spring that McCray, who enrolled early, could play multiple positions along the defensive line and called him a leader and an "elite competitor." We should expect to see him not just compete for playing time but contribute this fall, and become a mainstay on Florida’s defense for years to come.

Conference champion: Georgia over Texas

I’m sticking with what I predicted earlier this summer: Georgia over Texas.

The Bulldogs are pissed off about missing the CFP last year — a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game prevented them from trying to win three consecutive national titles, and now Smart’s group is preparing to make another run this season.

Georgia will most likely have another top-five offense and top-five defense, and it has a quarterback in Beck, who could very well end up being the first overall NFL Draft pick next April. Not to mention, he’ll be protected by an offensive line that boasts four returning starters.

Texas has the talent and momentum from last year’s playoff run to make a splash in its debut season in the SEC. Even Saban predicted the Longhorns would play for an SEC title. But Sarkisian’s group has a few more question marks than Georgia, specifically when it comes to what kind of improvements Ewers can make in his third and final season in Austin. It doesn’t help that Texas already lost two running backs — including starter Baxter — to injuries. But this is a program that prides itself on depth and has been successful in dipping into it in the past.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her @LakenLitman.

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