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5 Most Dangerous 2017 College Football Playoff Contenders

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:33 p.m. ET

Fansided, Zach Bigalke/FanSided via Saturday Blitz

We are still waiting to see who will win the College Football Playoff in 2016, but it’s never too early to look at the crop of contenders in 2017.

If we have learned anything from the past few years of the College Football Playoff era, it is that we know very little. The argument for the “four best teams” will always leave room for a wide latitude of subjectivity. 2016 provides a new data point as we try to determine what constitutes precedent under the new system.

Any team that makes the final cut, though, is almost certainly going to be ranked in the preseason top 25 of the AP and coaches polls. The lowest-ranked team in the preseason to make the semifinals was last year’s Oklahoma Sooners, who started the year 19th in the both polls. Clemson was also 12th in both lists. This year Washington started the year 14th in the AP poll and 18th in the coaches poll. That means nine of the 12 teams selected so far over the first three years of the College Football Playoff were ranked in the top five in at least one of the two polls.

So really any exercise in trying to figure out the most dangerous teams in the hunt for the 2017-2018 College Football Playoff will also come down to who we think will be highly rated in the preseason top 25 selections. Click through to see our selection for the teams that will almost certainly be in the hunt for a playoff berth next season.

NOTE: All rankings listed are from the final College Football Playoff rankings released Dec. 4. Experience, when discussed, is based on Phil Steele’s 2016 Experience Chart. Recruiting rankings are from 247 Sports’ composite rankings.

Nov 26, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley (26) jumps into the end zone for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Michigan State Spartans at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Penn State Nittany Lions

11-2 (Big Ten)

Last week: won Big Ten championship 38-31 v. #8 WisconsinLast rank: 5th -- next game at Rose Bowl v. #9 USC (Jan. 2)

Penn State came out of nowhere to win the Big Ten title this season. They were the only team to knock off Ohio State, and while they lost to Michigan they took down Wisconsin for the league title. The Nittany Lions also boasted a win over AAC champion Temple. There is a legitimate case to be made that they belonged in this year’s College Football Playoff, though the Buckeyes and Washington got the nod ahead of them. James Franklin’s team will be right back in the mix next season, especially since they’re lining up what looks to be a top 15 class this year in recruiting.

Injuries forced a lot of players to get experience along the lines this year on a Nittany Lions roster that was already one of the younger teams in the FBS. Trace McSorley got better with each passing game in his first year as a starter, culminating in a record-setting Big Ten championship performance. He will get most of his receivers back along with dangerous running back Saquon Barkley and an offensive line that should benefit from the attrition and baptism by fire that occurred throughout 2016.

A dominant performance over USC in the Rose Bowl will set up the Nittany Lions as a top-five team heading into 2017. Even a loss should not diminish their shine, as Penn State returns too much talent to think they’ll regress from the highs of 2016. The reigning Big Ten champs should contend once again for the Big Ten East with Ohio State and Michigan. Next season Penn State could be competing for a national title for the first time since 1986.

Nov 5, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pressured by Oregon Ducks linebacker De’Quan McDowell (54) during a NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

USC Trojans

9-3 (Pac-12)

Last week: won 45-27 v. Notre DameLast rank: 9th -- next game at Rose Bowl v. #5 Penn State (Jan. 2)

Since we’ve just talked about Penn State, let’s talk about their Rose Bowl opponents for a bit. The Trojans are likely going to garner plenty of attention heading into next season whether they win or lose in Pasadena. Like the Nittany Lions, USC has recovered from NCAA sanctions to return to its place among the top teams in college football. The Trojans fell just short of reaching the Pac-12 championship in Clay Helton’s first full year as head coach. They should be back in the mix to claim one of the 2017 College Football Playoff spots.

USC opened the year 1-3 with losses to Alabama, Stanford, and Utah. After the loss to the Cardinal, Helton made the switch from Max Browne to Sam Darnold at quarterback. While the redshirt freshman lost his first start against the Utes, he is now 8-1 as a starter after completing 68 percent of his passes for an average of nearly 300 yards per game. Offensive tackles Chad Wheeler and Zach Banner will be gone, but the rest of the line will benefit from experience gained in 2016.

The Trojans have featured a top-ten recruiting class each of the past three seasons, and could once again push into that territory next year. The Pac-12 South was deep this season, but Colorado is bound to lose a lot of talent from this year’s division champion roster. Utah could be USC’s biggest challenger, and now that Darnold has a full year of experience he should have no trouble with a schedule that won’t include Alabama in 2017.

Sep 9, 2016; Syracuse, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) leaps over Syracuse Orange defensive back Cordell Hudson (20) during the second quarter at the Carrier Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville Cardinals

9-3 (ACC)

Last week: lost 41-38 v. KentuckyLast rank: 13th -- next game at Citrus Bowl v. #20 LSU (Dec. 31)

When you have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner coming back to school for another season, your program is bound to receive plenty of consideration as a College Football Playoff contender the following season. Louisville is no exception after sophomore Lamar Jackson won the award. And while there is going to be a drain of talent around Jackson next year, the Cardinals will also benefit from some key losses at division rivals such as Deshaun Watson at Clemson and Dalvin Cook at Florida State.

While Louisville lost three games this year, only one defeat was of the blowout variety. Nobody in the country had a better offense this season than the explosive unit led by Jackson. That unit will lose receiver James Quick, running back Brandon Radcliff, and center Tobijah Hughley. They boasted a defense that was especially strong against the run, holding teams to just 110 rushing yards per game. Thanks to a recruiting class that could be in the top 25 come February, Bobby Petrino’s team could retool for another run.

The one thing that could theoretically work against the Cardinals in 2017 is their strength of schedule. Louisville is slated to play Purdue, Kent State, FCS Murray State, and Kentucky in non-conference play. There is no guarantee that the Wildcats will be as good next year as they were this year, and the other three teams could drag down Louisville’s strength of schedule. But if they manage to win the ACC, the Cardinals should be in the College Football Playoff mix.

Nov 26, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Curtis Samuel (4) scores the winning touchdown in the second overtime under pursuit from Michigan Wolverines cornerback Jourdan Lewis (26) at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won the game 30-27 in double overtime.Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio State Buckeyes

11-1 (Big Ten)

Last week: won 30-27 v. #6 MichiganLast rank: 3rd -- next game at Fiesta Bowl v. #2 Clemson (Dec. 31)

Just like in 2014, the Buckeyes arrived on the scene a year earlier than expected. According to Phil Steele no team returned less experience to its roster in 2016 than Ohio State. Yet Urban Meyer’s team was able to run through its entire Big Ten schedule save a tough road trip to Happy Valley. That loss to Penn State kept the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship this year, but it was almost a blessing in disguise after the Nittany Lions took the league crown. With just one loss on their record, Ohio State reached the College Football Playoff for the second time in three seasons.

Next year the Buckeyes will once again have to contend with Penn State as well as Michigan, and they could also have to deal with a Michigan State rebound. With J.T. Barrett expected to leave Columbus for a shot at the NFL this spring, Ohio State will need to find a new signal caller next year. They will have 1000-yard running back Mike Weber back, however, and whoever wins the quarterback job will have an experienced offensive line and receiving corps to make his transition easier.

Playing in one of the toughest — if not the toughest — division in college football, Ohio State is hardly a lock to reach the College Football Playoff in 2017. But the Buckeyes should be ranked in the top five in the preseason once again, and barring a total collapse this crew should be in the hunt late into the regular season. As we’ve seen, from both 2014 and 2016, Ohio State is going to get into the bracket if they are close.

Dec 3, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) runs the ball past Florida Gators defense during the third quarter of the SEC Championship college football game at Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama Crimson Tide

13-0 (SEC)

Last week: won SEC championship 54-16 v. #17 FloridaLast rank: 1st -- next game at Peach Bowl v. #4 Washington (Dec. 31)

Alabama has reached the College Football Playoff in each of its first three seasons, and has to be considered the most dangerous team heading into next season regardless of what happens on New Year’s Eve. The Crimson Tide had one of the least experienced teams in the country this season and yet they might just be the most dangerous roster of Nick Saban’s coaching career. Despite losing players like Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, the Tide kept rolling to a perfect regular season.

Saban has recruited the top class in the country every year since 2011, and the 2017 class is poised to rank first nationally yet again. Jalen Hurts, the true freshman quarterback who exploded onto the scene by completing 65 percent of his passes for nearly 2600 yards while also adding four 100-yard rushing games. Hurts ended the regular season with 34 total touchdowns (22 passing, 12 rushing) and has at least two more seasons in Tuscaloosa.

The team returned less than one-third of the total yardage gained on offense in 2015, yet they gained an average of almost 50 more yards and scored five more points per game in 2016. The defense likewise held teams to three fewer points and nearly 30 fewer yards per game. Losing six players that were selected in the first two rounds of the 2016 NFL Draft didn’t impact the Crimson Tide this season. While they are bound to lose more talent this year, Alabama will be right back in the mix in 2017.