Michigan Wolverines

After marked progress in '15, how likely is Michigan to sustain it?

Published Jan. 22, 2016 10:29 a.m. ET

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Marcus Hartman

How good will Michigan football be in 2016? 

First we thought we would define just how good it was in 2015. Or, more accurately, how much better new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first team was than Brady Hoke’s last. 

While 10 wins are usually nothing to sneeze at, they look even better after a five-win season such as the Wolverines had in 2014. 

But perceptions don't always line up with reality, so we thought we would take a look at the numbers from Brady Hoke's last season and Harbaugh's first to see what kind of story they tell then spin it forward to 2016. 

The short version: Yep, Michigan got better in almost every area in 2015. 

The biggest improvements came (unsurprisingly) on offense. 

In passing efficiency, the Wolverines' were 107th nationally in 2014 and 45th in ’15. They also saw gains in passing yards (110th to 53rd), total offense (112th to 69th) and scoring offense (109th to 50th). 

One exception: Rushing offense, an area in which gaining 4.6 yards per game less meant a drop from 62nd nationally to 83rd. 

While the offense in general saw bad units move toward the middle of the pack, the defense improved in many areas from good to great. 

The Wolverines pass defense improved from 19th to third in the nation while trimming 4.5 points off their points allowed average equaled a move from 27th up to No. 6 in scoring defense. (Again the running game was an exception as Michigan allowed 4.5 yards more per game more but remained in the top 20 nationally.) 

But 2015 is over, so the question becomes: Are these improvements sustainable? 

With Michigan set to return roughly 13 starters, that is certainly within the realm of possibility, but it will likely come down to how well the Wolverines' new quarterback performs compared to graduate transfer Jake Rudock' 2015 season. 

Like the the Wolverines as a whole, Rudock came out of 2015 on the upswing. 

But how does he stand up to the same type of scrutiny? 

Did Harbaugh unlock quarterback greatness not already seen, or was Rudock’s season more an example of a natural progression for a veteran college starter? 

The numbers point more toward the latter. 

Via Sports-Reference.com, Rudock raised his completion percentage from 61.7 as a junior at Iowa to 64.0 percent as a senior at Michigan. That’s a four percent increase from one year to the next, slightly smaller than he enjoyed between his first season as a starter at Iowa (59.0 percent) and his second. 

There was a bigger jump in yards per game (from 183.3 in 2013 to 203.0 in '14 to 232.1 last season) and yards per attempt (from 6.9 to 7.1 to 7.8), which might explain the disparity in changes in completion percentage, too. 

While he cut down on interceptions between his sophomore and junior years (from 13 to five), Rudock also threw for fewer TDs (18 to 16). In 2015, both increased again (20 and nine, respectively). 

With changes in offensive systems, coaching and surrounding personnel, of course, a straight comparison is tough to make, but there is one more mark worth noting. 

Rudock’s quarterback rating improved from 133.5 in 2014 to 141.5 this past season, a rise of six percent, the same as it was between 2013 and '14 at Iowa (from 126.5 to 133.5). 

While laudable improvement, it's also probably fair to call it expected, too, for a player with Rudock’s experience in the Big Ten — even if it wasn’t at Michigan. 

And what does that mean for 2016 in Ann Arbor? 

If nothing else, that Harbaugh and his staff know how to groom veterans for success. 

That figures to be good news with a group of quarterbacks — including Houston transfer John O’Korn, senior Shane Morris and sophomore Wilton Speight — that will be less experienced than Rudock was but not completely green. 

Whoever is the quarterback, he will play behind an offensive line with a new center but is currently scheduled to return the other four starters. 

The top three rushers also still have eligibility along with both starting receivers and Big Ten Tight end of the Year Jake Butt. 

On the other side of the ball, the secondary appears set to put up similar numbers with All-Big Ten selections Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers among three starters returning, but the front seven that saw its effectiveness wane down the stretch will have five new starters. 

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