College Football

Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Odds, Picks

Published Sep. 1, 2023 1:22 p.m. ET

The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0) are an overwhelming 39-point favorite heading into their matchup on Saturday, September 2, when they host the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (0-0).

Last year the Crimson Tide won the Sugar Bowl after going 11-2 during the regular season. Offensively, they averaged 41.1 points per game (fourth in college football), and they gave up 18.2 per game (ninth in college football) defensively. The Blue Raiders won the Hawai'i Bowl last year after going 8-5 in the regular season. They scored 28.8 points per game (62nd in college football) and allowed 27.7 (78th).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Middle Tennessee-Alabama game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick:

Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: SEC Network
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Alabama vs Middle Tennessee Betting Information updated as of September 1, 2023, 7:46 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Alabama	-39 (-110)	-10000	+1850	52	-111	-109

Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction

Pick ATS: Alabama (-39)
Pick OU: Over (52)
Prediction: Alabama 49, Middle Tennessee 10

Pick Via FOX Sports Wagering Expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica

Coach Nick Saban typically does not run up the score on overmatched opponents. That doesn’t mean the talent discrepancy hasn’t led to lopsided scores in the past, but this is an interesting spot.

We don’t know Alabama’s plan at QB, and my guess is all three will play. While the team needs to open up the playbook and see who excels in what role, how much do they really want to show their hand before the big Texas game?

Middle Tennessee will likely struggle to score points, but if the Blue Raiders can score one touchdown, that might just be enough to cover the big number in what is an interesting spot for the Tide.

PICK: Middle Tennessee (+39.5 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 39.5 points (or win outright)

Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Crimson Tide 46, Blue Raiders 6.
The Crimson Tide have a 99.0% chance to claim victory in this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Blue Raiders have a 5.1% implied probability.
Alabama put together a 6-6-1 record against the spread last season.
Middle Tennessee compiled a 6-6-1 ATS record last year.

Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee: 2022 Stats Comparison

	Alabama	Middle Tennessee
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	41.1 (8)	28.8 (56)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	18.2 (9)	27.7 (85)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	16 (41)	18 (58)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	14 (103)	30 (3)

Alabama 2022 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Bryce Young	QB	3,328 YDS (64.5%) / 32 TD / 5 INT 185 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 14.2 RUSH YPG
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	926 YDS / 7 TD / 71.2 YPG / 6.1 YPC 44 REC / 444 REC YDS / 3 REC TD / 34.2 REC YPG
Jase McClellan	RB	655 YDS / 7 TD / 50.4 YPG / 5.8 YPC 14 REC / 174 REC YDS / 3 REC TD / 13.4 REC YPG
Ja'Corey Brooks	WR	39 REC / 674 YDS / 8 TD / 51.8 YPG
DeMarcco Hellams	DB	87 TKL / 3.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK / 1 INT
Will Anderson Jr.	LB	44 TKL / 13.0 TFL / 10.0 SACK / 1 INT
Brian Branch	DB	69 TKL / 10.0 TFL / 3.0 SACK / 2 INT
Henry To'o To'o	LB	72 TKL / 7.0 TFL / 2.5 SACK

Middle Tennessee 2022 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Chase Cunningham	QB	3,162 YDS (66.7%) / 21 TD / 10 INT 52 RUSH YDS / 6 RUSH TD / 4.0 RUSH YPG
Frank Peasant	RB	774 YDS / 9 TD / 59.5 YPG / 4.3 YPC 28 REC / 286 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 22.0 REC YPG
Jaylin Lane	WR	69 REC / 940 YDS / 5 TD / 72.3 YPG
Darius Bracy	RB	264 YDS / 4 TD / 20.3 YPG / 4.1 YPC 16 REC / 98 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 7.5 REC YPG
Jordan Ferguson	DE	43 TKL / 11.0 TFL / 8.5 SACK / 1 INT
Tra Fluellen	S	68 TKL / 3.0 TFL / 2 INT / 3 PD
Teldrick Ross	S	51 TKL / 3.0 TFL / 2 INT / 5 PD
Decorian Patterson	CB	39 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 7 INT / 8 PD