College Football

Alabama vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Picks

Updated Sep. 9, 2023 2:58 p.m. ET

The No. 11 Texas Longhorns (1-0) are one-touchdown underdogs on Saturday, September 9 when they visit the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0).

Last time out, the Crimson Tide defeated the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, with 56-7 being the final score. Last time out, the Longhorns defeated the Rice Owls, with 37-10 being the final score.

Here's everything you need to know about for the matchup between Texas and Alabama — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Sam Panayotovich.

Alabama vs. Texas Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: ESPN
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Alabama vs Texas Betting Information updated as of September 8, 2023, 8:46 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Alabama	-7 (-113)	-284	+228	54	-110	-110

Alabama vs. Texas Prediction

Pick ATS: Texas (+7)
Pick OU: Over (54)
Prediction: Alabama 29, Texas 26

Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

This number feels light, doesn’t it?

Alabama was a three-touchdown favorite last year in Austin, and the Tide barely escaped with a last-minute 20-19 victory. I remember it vividly because I went to the game and forgot sunscreen. Temperatures hovered around 100 degrees on the field, and I looked like the Kool-Aid man for three whole days. It was not a pretty sight.

Anyways… I love it when Nick Saban’s teams are undervalued. Sure, they’re replacing Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs and Will Anderson, among others, but the cupboard is never bare at Bama, and I’m higher on redshirt sophomore quarterback Jalen Milroe than most.

Texas has a mean defense, but I think the Tide will make the necessary adjustments at halftime and pull away late. It’s mostly about the number, though. You don’t get many chances to lay a touchdown with Alabama at home.

Roll Tide.

PICK: Alabama (-7) to win by more than 7 points

Alabama vs. Texas Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Crimson Tide 30, Longhorns 24.
The Crimson Tide have a 74.0% chance to collect the win in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability. The Longhorns hold a 30.5% implied probability.
Alabama has covered once in one games with a spread this season.
Texas has put together a 0-1-0 record against the spread this year.

Alabama vs. Texas: 2023 Stats Comparison

	Alabama	Texas
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	56.0 (12)	37.0 (56)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	7.0 (16)	10.0 (28)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	0 (1)	0 (1)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	2 (26)	3 (7)

Alabama 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jalen Milroe	QB	194 YDS (72.2%) / 3 TD / 0 INT 48 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 48.0 RUSH YPG
Isaiah Bond	WR	5 REC / 76 YDS / 1 TD / 76.0 YPG
Jermaine Burton	WR	3 REC / 62 YDS / 1 TD / 62.0 YPG
Amari Niblack	TE	2 REC / 49 YDS / 1 TD / 49.0 YPG
Kendrick Blackshire	LB	4 TKL / 0.0 TFL
Deontae Lawson	LB	4 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK
Jaylen Key	DB	4 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Chris Braswell	LB	4 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK

Texas 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Quinn Ewers	QB	260 YDS (63.3%) / 3 TD / 0 INT 12 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 12.0 RUSH YPG
Jonathon Brooks	RB	52 YDS / 0 TD / 52.0 YPG / 4.3 YPC 2 REC / 42 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 42.0 REC YPG
Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	2 REC / 44 YDS / 1 TD / 44.0 YPG
Xavier Worthy	WR	7 REC / 90 YDS / 0 TD / 90.0 YPG
Ethan Burke	DE	4 TKL / 1.0 TFL / 1.5 SACK
Jaylan Ford	LB	5 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
David Gbenda	LB	6 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 0.5 SACK
Malik Muhammad	DB	5 TKL / 0.0 TFL