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AP Top 25 Heat Check: Auburn, Boise State are under-ranked
The worst part of college football's week one overreactions is that they linger.
Texas can't make up for losing to Maryland by beating Tulsa this week. Michigan fans won't feel better about their team's loss to Notre Dame if the Wolverines pound Western Michigan at the Big House. Trouncing FCS teams is not making those ugly openers fade away for Florida State and Miami fans.
The first regular season Top 25 is out and the voters had to weigh overreacting to openers against trying to let results be the guide. The first month of the season is always about wringing the preseason prognostications out of the rankings and trying to reward good wins — without knowing for sure what counts as a good win.
Voters totally bailed on Texas (not one vote after making the Longhorns No. 23 in the preseason poll), gave nice bumps to LSU and Virginia Tech, and hardly punished Washington for losing a close one against Auburn. Though maybe Auburn deserved a little more credit for winning the only matchup of top-10 teams.
The first Heat Check of the season will take the difficulty of the task into account when assessing how the voters did. Too hot = ranked too high. Too cold = not ranked high enough.
No. 1 Alabama (1-0)
Next: vs. Arkansas State.
The Tide's best offensive production during the Nick Saban era was 2015, when it ranked fifth in the country at 7.15 yards per play. With Tua Tagovailoa at the helm, this Alabama offense could top that.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 2 Clemson (1-0)
Next: at Texas A&M.
Now that Alabama's quarterback competition has been settled, we can pay more attention to Clemson's. The trip to College Station could be telling for Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 3 Georgia (1-0)
Next: at No. 24 South Carolina.
If the Bulldogs are going to be tested in the SEC East, this is probably the game.
Heat check: Little too hot. Bump the Bulldogs, Buckeyes, Badgers and Sooners down one spot to make room for Auburn at 3.
No. 4 Ohio State (1-0)
Next: vs. Rutgers.
This stint as acting head coach will probably help Ryan Day land a top job for next season.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 5 Wisconsin (1-0)
Next: vs. New Mexico.
Maybe better than the Badgers' opening victory was BYU's nice win against Arizona. The Cougars are Wisconsin's best nonconference opponent and it would help its strength of schedule if they were pretty good.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 6 Oklahoma (1-0)
RB Rodney Anderson is one of the more underpublicized great players in the country.
Next: vs. UCLA.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 7 Auburn (1-0)
Next: vs. Alabama State.
One concern after a good win: The two top backs averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry behind an offensive line that was a question mark coming in. Washington is pretty good, though.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 8 Notre Dame (1-0)
Next: vs. Ball State.
QB Brandon Wimbush played OK in the opener, but the Irish will need a lot more than that from the senior to be a playoff threat. Especially with a running game that is still looking for go-to back.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 9 Washington (0-1)
Next: vs. North Dakota.
The loss of star OT Trey Adams to a back injury might be worse in the long-term than the loss to Auburn.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 10 Stanford (1-0)
Next vs. No. 15 Southern California.
QB K.J. Costello and WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside can make defenses pay for loading up to stop Bryce Love.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 11 LSU (1-0)
Next: vs. SE Louisiana.
It was a very nice victory, against a very good defense, but 11 for 24 for 140 yards suggests new QB Joe Burrow and the offense have quite a ways to go.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 12 Virginia Tech (1-0)
Next: vs. William & Mary.
A tribute to continuity, stability and identity. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster will usually give the Hokies a chance to succeed.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 13 Penn State (1-0)
Next: at Pittsburgh.
Replacing star Saquon Barkley less difficult than finding new playmakers on defense as the close call against Appalachian State showed.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 14 West Virginia (1-0)
Next: vs. Youngstown State.
The combination of QB Will Grier, talented receivers and sharp offensive minds in coach Dana Holgorsen and OC Jake Spavital will give defenses fits.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 15 Michigan State (1-0)
Next: at Arizona State.
Those Friday openers have produced a few uninspired performances by the Spartans in recent years. They have not necessarily foretold long-term issues.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 16 TCU (1-0)
Next: at SMU, Friday.
Last tuneup before Ohio State comes to the Metroplex on Sept. 15.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 17 Southern California (1-0)
Next: at No. 13 Stanford.
An early test for USC freshman QB J.T. Daniels.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 18 Mississippi State (1-0)
Next: at Kansas State.
QB Nick Fitzgerald, suspended last week, gets his first crack at running coach Joe Moorhead's offense in what could be a tricky road game.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 19 UCF (1-0)
Next: vs. South Carolina State.
QB McKenzie Milton looked unaffected by the coaching change in game one.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 20 Boise State (1-0)
Next: vs. UConn.
The Broncos' demolition of a pretty good Troy team on the road might have been the most underappreciated performance of the weekend.
Heat check: Way too cold. Boise State could be top 10.
No. 21 Michigan (0-1)
Next: vs. Western Michigan.
The mood around Michigan and coach Jim Harbaugh made it easy to freak out about the opening loss, but a seven-point setback on the road to a good team maybe shouldn't induce quite so much hysteria.
Heat check: Just right.
No. 22 Miami (0-1)
Next: vs. Savannah State.
After four straight losses, the turnover chain is now corny.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 23 Oregon (1-0)
Next: vs. Portland State.
In case you missed it, QB Justin Herbert had 10 completions and five touchdown passes against Bowling Green.
Heat check: Too cold.
No. 24 South Carolina (1-0)
Next: vs. No. 3 Georgia.
The Gamecocks have not been ranked or beaten a top-10 team since September 2014.
Heat check: Too hot.
No. 25 Florida (1-0)
Next: vs. Kentucky.
The Gators have a chance to reel off a few wins and work their way into the top 20 over the next three weeks without really proving much.
Heat check: Too hot.
Should be out: TCU, Miami, South Carolina, Florida. Should be in: Northwestern, Mississippi, Maryland, BYU.
