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Auburn Football vs. Arkansas State: 5 Keys to the Game
Sep 3, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Sean White (13) looks on during the fourth quarter against the Clemson Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
Here we look at five keys to the game as Auburn football takes on Arkansas State at Jordan-Hare Stadium at 6:30 p.m. CT.
There is no question that Gus Malzahn was embarrassed by the offense for Auburn football against Clemson last week.
As a hot, up-and-coming head coach at Arkansas State where they averaged almost 35 points a game, the offensive genius could have never seen that nightmare coming.
Instead of just playing one quarterback, he played three different ones in three straight series. This caused all kinds of confusion on the offense, and it never allowed any one quarterback to get into rhythm.
As Malzahn gets ready to face his former team this weekend, I think he is hungry to prove he can still put together a good showing on offense. He knows he doesn’t have the quarterback he needs to run his offense at a high level, but there is enough talent to put up points.
Arkansas State should provide the stage for Auburn’s offense to get in step. Last week Toledo torched the Red Wolves’ defense for 30 points and over 500 total yards.
We’ve previewed the matchups and analyzed every angle of the game. Now before the Tigers take on the Red Wolves, let’s look at a couple of keys to victory.
Sep 3, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Sean White (13) passes against the Clemson Tigers during the third quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
No. 1 – Stick with One Quarterback
We’ve heard it all week as every Auburn fan has been saying it since the second quarter of the Clemson game. Hopefully Gus Malzahn has been listening and will stick with one quarterback.
It sounds as if Sean White will be the starter again for Auburn football. Malzahn should allow the redshirt sophomore to get into the game plan before taking him out.
I don’t want to see another quarterback come onto the field Saturday night unless we’re up by 30.
John Franklin III will likely come in at times to run the Wildcat package, and that’s fine as it’s the one thing that worked last week against Clemson.
White needs to throw the ball at least 30 times, and he needs to throw at least two touchdown passes. Auburn fans are tired of looking at the fact that White has one touchdown pass.
Last year, and to an extent in the first game, White’s drives seem to always stall inside the 20. Malzahn needs to come up with some plays to help him and the offense get the ball in the endzone.
At this point I don’t think Auburn fans care who the quarterback is, as long as Malzahn picks one and sticks with him.
With White being named the starter, he needs to be the guy. Malzahn has to let him build some confidence in this game before Texas A&M and LSU come to town.
If White is allowed to get into a rhythm throwing the ball, I think Auburn wins this game easily.
Oct 3, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Sean White (13) drops back to pass as lineman Braden Smith (71) blocks against the San Jose State Spartans during the second quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 – Auburn Offensive Line vs. Arkansas State Defensive Line
The Auburn offensive line didn’t exactly play its best game against Clemson last week. The ACC Tigers pretty much had an entirely new defensive line, but you couldn’t tell as they were constantly in the backfield against Auburn.
Clemson finished the game with four sacks and 14 tackles for a loss! That is incredibly terrible for an experienced offensive line.
To be fair, a lot of that had to do with the play-calling and quarterbacks not getting rid of the ball. Still, this offensive line should not be that bad.
On top of that, the offense averaged just 2.1 yards per carry.
Toledo possesses one of the best run games in the nation and Arkansas State held them to 4.1 yards per carry. That was one yard below their average from 2015.
Early in the game Arkansas State loaded the box and stuff the run. It wasn’t until Toledo completed a couple of passes downfield that the running game opened up.
I’m guessing the Red Wolves will do the same thing against Auburn, which means the offensive line will have to do much better at getting a push upfront.
Arkansas State’s defensive line is no slouch with former Alabama Crimson Tide player Dee Liner anchoring the middle of the line. Then you have First-Team Sun Belt defensive end Ja’Von Rolland-Jones on the edge.
This will be another big test for the Auburn offensive line, and could determine who wins the game.
Sep 3, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers defensive tackle Montravius Adams (1) walks off the field at halftime against the Clemson Tigers during the first half at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
No. 3 – Auburn Defensive Line vs Arkansas State Offensive Line
On the flip side, Auburn’s defensive line needs to assert itself against a very strong Arkansas State offense line.
The Red Wolve’s entire offensive line is made up of seniors, with three of them being First-Team Sun Belt capable.
They didn’t play like it against Toledo as they gave up 4 sacks, 9 tackles for a loss and only rushed for 3.7 yards per carry.
They certainly aren’t as bad as those numbers suggest, but you have to think that Auburn’s talented defensive line will have their way with them.
Even though they played well against Clemson, the Auburn defensive line didn’t have any explosive plays to make a real difference. They finished the game with just 3 tackles for a loss and zero sacks.
They have to be able to get in the backfield this weekend to create some negative plays.
Carl Lawson hasn’t had a sack in over a year, but I think that drought ends against Arkansas State this weekend.
The Auburn defensive line is way too talented not to come up with a few sacks against Arkansas State. The Toledo defense is in a complete rebuild and managed four last weekend.
I expect Kevin Steele to come up with a lot of blitz packages to help the defensive lineman get in the backfield to create havoc.
I also expect to see a much better offensive line from Arkansas State, but they still should be no match for Auburn’s defensive line.
Look for Lawson, Marlon Davidson and others to create some negative plays in this one.
Sep 3, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn reacts during the first half against the Clemson Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 – Third Down Conversions
The Tigers’ offense was just 3-of-17 (18 percent) on third downs against Clemson, making it impossible to sustain any drives.
A big part of that was the fact that there were so many negative plays by our offense. It seemed like we were always in third-and-long situations.
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First and foremost, we have to win first down against Arkansas State. We need to see more positive plays on first down.
I really think Auburn needs to throw more on first down to loosen up the front seven of Arkansas State. That puts some pressure on Sean White to make a lot of big throws on first down. If he can do that, it will set us up with some more manageable third down situations.
It will also allow us to open up the running game a bit more. Maybe we actually see Kamryn Pettway gets some carries on some third-and-short situations.
Last year Auburn converted on third down 41 percent of the time, which was worse than our opponents 45 percent.
Going back to 2013, we converted on 47 percent of our third down attempts. We need to get back somewhere in that 40 percent range against Arkansas State.
Gus Malzahn’s offense relies heavily on tempo, and it’s hard to get that tempo going if you can’t convert on third down.
One major key to this game will be whether or not Auburn can win first down, setting them up for manageable third down conversions.
Toledo converted on 12-of-17 third down attempts against Arkansas State last week. I would love for our offense to put up similar numbers this week. If so, I think the Tigers run away with this game.
Nov 28, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers wide receiver Jason Smith (4) celebrates a touchdown with Auburn Tigers wide receiver Ryan Davis (83) during the third quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 – Auburn’s Wide Receivers Getting Open
As we already mentioned earlier, Arkansas State will most likely stack the box to stop the run against Auburn.
With that, it really opens up the passing lanes for the Auburn offense.
Arkansas State has a solid secondary that is led by senior Strong Safety Cody Brown who had 9 pass break-ups and 3 interceptions a year ago.
However, they were left on an island against Toledo, and as a result they were torched by the Rockets talented receivers. The Toledo quarterback finished the game with 371 passing yards and 3 touchdowns.
Toledo’s speed wide receiver, Cody Thompson, caught 5 passes for 174 yards! That’s an average of 34.8 yards per catch, which is not far above his 2015 average of 22.3.
I know Sean White doesn’t possesses a great deep ball, but Auburn football certainly has the receivers to beat Toledo deep. Look for Kyle Davis and Jason Smith to get loose in the secondary for some big plays.
However, don’t forget about the short passes. I also think Marcus Davis could have a huge day with the extra space across the middle.
I could easily see him catching six or seven passes in this game for 80 yards and a touchdown.
We didn’t get to see much of the young receiving core against Clemson, but I think they’ll be on full display against Arkansas State this weekend.
If the Toledo defense continues to stack the box and play loose coverage, the Auburn receivers have to be able to get open in the middle of the field.
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