College Football

'Bear Bets': The Group Chat's favorite early CFP, bowl picks; Army-Navy

Updated Dec. 8, 2023 11:43 a.m. ET

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College football's bowl season is upon us!

FOX Sports' Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz have a lot of thoughts on the upcoming College Football Playoff and Bowl season, as did FOX Sports contributors Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill.

The Group Chat segment of the latest "Bear Bets" episode gave their initial thoughts on the College Football Playoff semifinal games and their favorite bets so far for bowl season. 

Let's get into their thoughts!

Our four-team playoff field is set, and no one is a convincing favorite in either semifinal matchup. No. 1 Michigan is only a 1.5-point favorite against No. 4 Alabama despite the Crimson Tide's controversial inclusion in the playoff. After those two teams square off at the Rose Bowl, No. 2 Washington is actually a 4.5-point underdog to No. 3 Texas at the Sugar Bowl. With both games still weeks away, you have any initial thoughts on the playoffs?

Hill: Lean Alabama vs. Michigan

"I think that's a tough matchup for Michigan, and the look on Michigan's faces said a lot; it was like, ‘We were kind of hoping for Florida State.' Michigan likes to bully people; they like to strong-arm people. They win with physicality. You can't really out-physical Bama. That's a tough one. You get [Nick] Saban with a month to prepare."

The Bear: Lean Alabama vs. Michigan

"You watch the way they control the line of scrimmage against Georgia in the SEC championship game, and you would think that they probably will be able to do the same thing here. So, my first impression is, I do think Alabama will win that game."

Alabama vs. Michigan, Texas vs. Washington: Early College Football Playoff preview

Schwartz: Potentially likes Washington to win it all

"I think early on, there's a lot of points scored [in the Sugar Bowl]; it comes down to who makes the better adjustments in the second half. And that's sort of how I see this game going, guys.

"Are you surprised Washington is +750, +800 to win a championship? They've won 22 straight games. They seem to win all these close games. I was surprised that this number is so long because it's just two wins. … Washington's offense is built to play in this situation. They're a shotgun offense, they're a passing offense. It's inside on the turf. This is a great situation for their team, ‘back against the wall' sort of thing, ‘no one believes in us,' 'it's a Texas home game,' 'we're the underdog' were the things that we've seen from them all season."

Sammy P: Bet Washington moneyline if you like the Huskies to win it all

"If you were to just bet Washington moneyline in the first game, like +170, and then you roll that over in the championship game, they're gonna be a 3-to-1 'dog. So let's say you bet 100, you win 270 or collect 270. Then you roll that, and you could technically get a higher price. Let's say Alabama pummels Michigan, you probably get a better number if you roll it over on the moneyline."

Do you have any favorite early bets or tips for bowl season?

Sammy P: Over 62.5 in Alamo Bowl (Arizona vs. Oklahoma)

"Even without Dillon Gabriel, those teams are probably going to get up and down the field but I've only made two bets. These lines have been out for four or five days now. This is as little I've had in the kitty in the first few days since the openers; it's just so tough to navigate right now because things are gonna keep coming out until kickoff on both teams and in more ways than ever."

Miami vs. Rutgers, UNC vs. West Virginia early bowl game previews and picks

The Bear: Rutgers +3 vs. Miami (Fla.), Under 46.5 in the Sun Bowl (Notre Dame vs. Oregon State), Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Penn State

"The way Ole Miss kinda got run out in their bowl last year by Texas Tech, [they might want to rectify that]. Chop Robinson and I think they're going to be other guys who opt out for Penn State. Manny Diaz [was hired by] Duke. This is one of those games that I think this number by kickoff could run up to -6 or so. So I feel good about getting on the right side of that number."

Hill: Northwestern +6.5 vs. Utah; think about betting the moneyline on underdogs during bowl season

"You're not betting teams, you're betting news, and I think there's two ways to approach it: Try to anticipate the move and get ahead of it and just beat the books to the punch, which is very hard to do. You see the move come out, and you go to bet it, you're only going to have like a minute and 30 seconds to do it. The lines move so quickly. That's a hard approach. … I don't think you do badly in bowl season if you just threw 10 bucks on every underdog on the moneyline. You probably do OK with all this uncertainty. You're probably gonna see some upsets, just high variance. 

"Northwestern's win total was at 3.5 wins, and the Under got pounded. I think this is going to mean the world to them to possibly win a bowl game. Utah, who knows what their quarterback situation is? That seven looks like a lot."

Penn State vs. Ole Miss, Oregon State vs. Notre Dame best gambling odds and predictions

Traditionally one of the lowest-scoring games each season, Army and Navy, renew their rivalry on Saturday. The point total for that game is set at 28.5, which is two points lower than the 30.5 point total for Thursday's Patriots-Steelers game. As Thursday's NFL game is the lowest in years, which game do you think will end up having fewer points scored?

Sammy P: Army-Navy; also bet Under 6.5 total points in the first quarter

"The problem with Army-Navy is – and I've done this in my life, we've all been there, well, maybe not all of us – but we've looked at Army-Navy in 2014 or 2015 and gone ‘32 is not a lot of points.' And then you flip it on in the third quarter, and it's 6-2, and you're like, 'I'm not getting 30, let alone 20.' Those teams don't have any talent."

Army vs. Navy best bets, predictions and odds in Week 15

The Bear: Army-Navy, but likely won't play anything in that game. 

"I went back and looked at the totals. You look at last year, it was 37, but before that, it was 30, 15, 38, 27, 27 and 38. So it's been right around [the number] in the last 10 years or so. So yeah, it doesn't feel like a bet for me or anything there."

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