College Football

'Bear Bets': The Group Chat's best bets for Kansas State-Texas, Washington-USC

Published Nov. 3, 2023 11:08 a.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

Another weekend of college football is upon us, and Week 10 brings with it many exciting matchups to wager on!

On this week's "Bear Bets" episode, FOX Sports' Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz had a lot of thoughts on the big matchups, as did FOX Sports contributors Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill.

The Group Chat segment went through a variety of games and bets, so let's dive into the fun.

Arguably, the biggest matchup of the weekend takes place in Los Angeles, where USC hosts undefeated Washington. Both teams have had their struggles in recent weeks, leading to USC being a 3-point underdog at home. Do you think USC will pull off the upset? Or do you like other wagers in this game? 

Schwartz: Leaning USC +3

"I'm 0-5 wagering on USC games this season in any direction. USC can win this game. It fought hard against Cal. It kept battling, battling and battling. I don't think Washington beats Oregon State; that's the one game I firmly think that they don't go into Corvallis and beat Oregon State. They can certainly lose this weekend. I'm not betting on USC because I suck at betting USC. But I feel like USC +3 is the play here."

Sammy P: Over 76.5

"I don't care; I'm not going to overthink it, no pun intended. These two teams could score 90. I think this is like a 48-40 final, either way. I'm not bullish on Washington here. If anything, I'm nervous about this Michael Penix Jr. Heisman ticket here."

Hill: USC +3

"Washington's so beat up on defense. They can't run the ball. I don't know how healthy Penix Jr. really is. Remember, he has been beaten up his whole career and has always dealt with injuries. So, to me, I think this is a good buy-low spot on USC."

The Bear: USC +3

"I think Washington has been begging to get beat the last couple of weeks. Their defense has been problematic. Will hit on something, too. The book on Penix Jr. used to be that he couldn't stay healthy for a whole season. Last year, he finally did. But it does look like he's taken a few too many hits."

The Big 12 has two major battles this weekend that can impact the College Football Playoff. Texas hosts Kansas State but is only a 4.5-point favorite at home, as it's still without Quinn Ewers. Do you like Texas to keep it rolling?

The Bear: Leaning Kansas State +4.5

"I think Texas needs to be very worried this week. Their offense was limited last week. A lot of the Maalik Murphy passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's probably not going to work against Kansas State."

Sammy P: Under 51

"You can still find Under 50 or 49.5 at some books. It's sort of crawling through 49.5, and that's a big, key number in college football. I think you're dead on about Kansas State's ability to solve the short passing game for Texas.

"I'm also going to make it plus a quarter that we see Arch Manning this week."

Hill: Leaning Kansas State +4.5

"I think Kansas State is very live. The offensive line is good. This is just a well-coached team. This would be Kansas State or nothing for me. I haven't bet it yet, but I think you're talking me into it."

Colorado appears to have hit a wall in recent weeks, falling to 4-4 last week. It's a 13.5-point underdog against Oregon State on Saturday. Do you think it can rekindle its early-season magic, or are there other plays you like surrounding the Buffaloes?

Schwartz: Take Oregon State this weekend

"Do you have to fade Colorado the rest of the way now? It feels like they've been uncompetitive for the last month. Oregon State is coming off a loss going to Colorado. That line feels heavy, but Oregon State is still playing for something. Colorado can't block or tackle. They can't do the basic things."

The Bear: Taking Colorado to win Under 5.5 games

"Colorado's sitting here at 4-4. There are four games left — Oregon State, Arizona Wildcats, at Washington State, at Utah. Some people are opposed to laying a price. But, you can go Under 5.5 at -255 [on Colorado's win total at one sportsbook]. Are they really going to win two more games?"

Hill: Will also take Colorado to win Under 5.5 games

"I wish Bear didn't mention that because I know I have the urge to bet an irresponsible amount of money on that Under at 5.5. That's a bad line. That's ridiculous."

Sammy P: I won't bet Under 5.5

"I'm not laying -250."

In the other major Big 12 matchup, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State meet in the final Bedlam game for the foreseeable future. Will Oklahoma bounce back after losing its first game of the season last week, or are you going with the 6.5-point underdog Oklahoma State?

The Bear: Leaning Oklahoma State +6

"You look at some of the underlying numbers here with Oklahoma, like yards per play, they're not great. They're behind Oklahoma State and a lot of these Big 12 teams. It wouldn't surprise me if Mike Gundy got OU this week. I think this game, in terms of the rivalry, means a hell of a lot more for Oklahoma State to get the last laugh."

Sammy P: Leaning Oklahoma State +6

"When a sportsbook throws up a number, it throws up a six instead of an eight, or it throws up a nine instead of an 11. They're building in that respect for the 'dog. When you open up something sub-seven, which I think is the most key number in college football, it tells you something. 

"That opening at Oklahoma State +6 tells me that there's a lot of respect in the desert for the pokes."

Schwartz: Leaning Oklahoma -6

"The one thing I love about this rivalry is that Oklahoma has won a lot of the games. Since 2003, they've won every game but three of them. At some point, ownage is ownage in a rivalry. It has to forcefully change. Is this the year something forcefully changes? Oklahoma State won two years ago, but I'm not sure Oklahoma State is at that point."

Hill: Oklahoma State +6 or stay away

"It's a bummer that this is the last one. I can't lay six points with this Oklahoma team. It looked like at one point with Oklahoma like, ‘Here we go again,' as it basically got 14 free points. It's just a terrible job by the Oklahoma coaching staff. They got so conservative in some of those spots and didn't do their team any favors. It'd be 'dog or pass."

Finally, LSU and Alabama meet in a battle that will likely determine who wins the SEC West. Alabama is only a three-point favorite on Saturday despite being the home team. Do you think Nick Saban will get revenge for last year's loss? 

The Bear: LSU +3

"We saw what Texas' offense did to Alabama with their quarterback and wide receivers. I think Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers will give Alabama a ton of problems. You've got to go back to 2010 to find when Alabama has been this short of a home favorite. So, it's been a while. The oddsmakers usually err on the side of, ‘We'll trust Nick Saban and Alabama.'"

Schwartz: Alabama -3

"When you look at a game like this where you've got two offenses that are similar, LSU is better, but Jalen Milroe can throw the ball deep and Alabama has an explosive offense at times. On the other side, you have an LSU defense that absolutely stinks. I don't trust a team on the road that can play good defense all of a sudden."

Sammy P: Staying away

"This total is an LSU-type total. When you see an Alabama game totaled in the 60s, you're like, ‘Wait a minute, what's going on?' Well, LSU's defense is really bad. I can make a case for both sides, so it's a pass for me. I hate to be boring. Clearly, LSU has the better quarterback. The last time we saw a team with a clear quarterback edge was Texas with Quinn Ewers, and they won. But it's so scary to bet against a hot Alabama team."

Hill: Either parlay Over 61.5 with LSU if you like the Tigers or parlay Under 61.5 with Alabama if you like the Crimson Tide.

"Aren't those correlated? If we get a high-scoring game, that favors LSU. If we get more of a low-scoring game, that favors Alabama."

share

Get more from College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

Gambling

College Football

USC Trojans

Washington Huskies

Kansas State Wildcats

Texas Longhorns

Oregon State Beavers

Colorado Buffaloes

Oklahoma Sooners

LSU Tigers

Alabama Crimson Tide

Sam Panayotovich

Chris Fallica

Geoff Schwartz

Bear Bets: A FOX Sports Gambling Show