College Football

'Bear Bets': The Group Chat's favorite bets for CFP semis, NY6 bowl games

Updated Dec. 29, 2023 10:28 p.m. ET

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Bowl season is heating up in college football!

FOX Sports' Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz had a lot of thoughts on the biggest bowl games of the year, as did FOX Sports contributors Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill.

During the latest "Bear Bets" episode, the Group Chat broke down the big upcoming matchups, including its favorite sides to play in both College Football Playoff semifinals.

Let's get into its thoughts!

No. 1 Michigan is favored to win the Rose Bowl over No. 4 Alabama but is only laying 1.5 points. Which side do you like in the first semifinal matchup?

Hill: Lean Alabama +1.5, play Alabama +1.5 in a six-point teaser

"Everyone was caught up in Florida State, Alabama and who should get in and who's going to the playoff, that it really got lost that Michigan did not have a play longer than like 15 yards against Iowa on offense. You could say maybe they thought, 'As long as we don't screw this up, we're going to advance. Let's be conservative.' Maybe there's something to it, but they have not looked good on offense for a long part of the season. They're really not battle-tested with that schedule.

"Michigan doesn't really see the type of quarterback they're going to see in Jalen Milroe in terms of a scrambling quarterback. You don't see that in the Big Ten. Their whole M-O is to bully. It's hard to bully Alabama. So, I like Alabama."

Sammy P: Michigan moneyline, lean Under 45

"It's a nervous spot betting against Nick Saban in this round with all the extra time is a very precarious situation, as we all know. This guy, when you give him a month to prepare, he figures out what you do well. But I think Michigan is criminally underrated still, even at 13-0. … And I think the big key matchup-wise in this game is Michigan's defense against Alabama's offense.

"I don't see that NFL playmaking talent when it comes to receiver and running back for Alabama. Milroe has gotten better, a lot better over the course of the season, but I don't know that Alabama is going to score."

Michigan vs. Alabama: Rose Bowl best bets, predictions and odds

Schwartz: Alabama +1.5

"Michigan has 10 explosive plays in its last three games on offense. [This came against three of the best defenses it has played] in Penn State and Ohio State and there was a game between there and Iowa. What are you supposed to play against Iowa? Against Alabama, you cannot dink and dunk your way down the field. 

"Milroe has gotten better. That offensive line, if they play the way they played against Georgia, they'll be fine against Michigan. It'd be tough sledding, but they can make enough plays offensively."

The Bear: Alabama +1.5, Under 45

"The Michigan offensive line, I worry about them. They're without Zak Zinter, and we saw the Alabama front play much better toward the end of the year. You worry about losing experience and a really good player and how it might affect them."

In the second College Football Playoff semifinal matchup, No. 3 Texas is favored to beat No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl. Do you like the Longhorns to lay 4.5 points, or are you picking the undefeated Huskies? Are there other plays you like in this game?

Sammy P: Over 31.5 first-half points, lean Over 63 points 

"I was trying to figure out, do I want to play the first half Over or game Over? Sixty-three is a lot. But it's not when you have NFL talent all over the field. Washington has two receivers that are going to be in the NFL. Michael Penix has just been making all the throws.

"These guys are going to be throwing bombs on the field, too. You have so much speed and skill on offense."

Hill: Washington +4.5, Over 63 points

"Washington is going to have a month to study Texas and gonna realize, 'Hey, we can't run the ball, so we're gonna have to throw it pretty much every down.' When you're throwing every down, that either means big plays or the clock stops.

"The thing is with Texas, you look at the quarterbacks they face, it's a lot of backups. … I think you can throw on Texas. You can definitely throw on Washington. To me, this is just a back-and-forth game of who holds serve and who can hold who to a field goal."

Texas vs. Washington: Sugar Bowl best bets, predictions and odds

Schwartz: Washington +4.5

"I've watched every snap of Washington. You guys know I despise them. I do not like them. But I think they win this game. There's an ability they have, especially late in games, to get enough stops. And I just don't know how you stop their offense. There's no answer to Rome Odunze. He wins all the 50-50 balls. It's like 99-1 against him."

The Bear: Texas -4

"Texas is the most complete team of the four remaining teams, I think, with how they can beat you on offense and how good their defense is, especially on that front seven. I think they're the team that gives the opponent the most difficulty in preparing for, especially if the receivers are healthy now and Quinn Ewers is healthy."

The other four New Year's Six bowl games will also take place over the weekend. As some teams are dealing with opt-outs and others aren't, are there any sides you like in the other New Year's Six bowl games?

Schwartz: Oregon -16.5 vs. Liberty in Fiesta Bowl

"Bo Nix and Bucky Irving are going to play in this game. If Oregon cares about this game, they're going to crush Liberty. But who knows man, USC blew out Louisville. No one saw that coming. It's just a bit of random bowl season as usual."

CFP Semifinals: Alabama vs. Michigan, Texas vs. Washington best bets and odds

Hill: Oregon team total Over 41.5, Florida State team total Under 13.5 vs. Georgia in Orange Bowl

"Oregon is going to score every time they touch the ball as long as they want. They could have 35 or 38 points by halftime. That's what I like. I think Liberty probably gets their points, too, but Liberty is just not any good on defense.

"I don't see Florida State getting double digits. I don't know how they move the ball. Georgia has their opt-outs, and maybe they don't want to run up the score too much. It sounds square to be like, 'Oh, this is just going to be 38-0 Georgia.' But man, I don't see a path here for Florida State to be competitive."

What other plays do you like in the final week of bowl season?

Schwartz: Notre Dame -6.5 vs. Oregon State in Sun Bowl

"Oregon State lost nearly their entire coaching staff. They have two offensive coaches that remain and two defensive coaches that remain, and the rest of the game is being coached by analysts and graduate assistants."

Hill: Iowa team total Under 13.5 points vs. Tennessee in Citrus Bowl, LSU -9.5 vs. Wisconsin in ReliaQuest Bowl

"Iowa, when they step up in competition, it's just [not good]. LSU-Wisconsin, I know there's no Jayden Daniels, but I just don't know that Wisconsin keeps up with LSU here."

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CFB - Sun Bowl - 12/29/2023

CFB - Orange Bowl - 12/30/2023

CFB - ReliaQuest Bowl - 01/01/2024

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CFB - Rose Bowl - 01/01/2024

CFB - Sugar Bowl - 01/02/2024

Chris Fallica

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Bear Bets: A FOX Sports Gambling Show