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Big 12 Football: Predicting Every 2016 Bowl Game
How could the Big 12 bowl games go down over the next three weeks?
The college football regular season recently ended, but that brings us to the annual set of bowl games. This will see six Big 12 teams with a matchup: Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Iowa State are on the outside looking in due to not reaching six wins.
Since the Longhorns aren’t in the bowl season, we’re going to take a look at every game featuring a Big 12 team. How many of these schools stand a chance at winning? There are teams like Baylor that have struggled mightily and Oklahoma, who have looked dominant after starting the season slow. How will they fare this winter?
Take a look below as we begin predicting every Big 12 team’s bowl game in 2016.
Dec 3, 2016; Morgantown, WV, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Zach Smith (4) changes the call at the line of scrimmage during the third quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl – Dec. 27Baylor vs. Boise State
On Tuesday, December 27, Baylor and Boise State will go to battle in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. Each team had a fair amount of success in the 2016 season, but only one of them could sustain this.
After starting the season 6-0, Baylor lost their last six games to finish 6-6 and barely got their way into the bowl season. They were defeated in all but two Big 12 Conference games, and lost to the likes of Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia to build up the losses at the end of the season. Despite having new head coach Matt Rhule coming in, this team has no momentum in the last game of the Jim Grobe era.
Boise State Started the year 7-0, but eventually dropped two games, which took them out of the College Football Playoff rankings. Given their placement in the Group of Five’s Mountain West Conference, it’s not a huge surprise that a 10-2 record couldn’t keep them in the rankings. However, they still have quality players like quarterback Brett Rypien and running back Jeremy McNichols, both of whom had terrific years for the Broncos.
Baylor will be without their own quarterback, Seth Russell as he went down with an injury in the fourth-to-last game of the season. This led to freshman Zach Smith taking over and providing some inconsistent results, including not being able to have a completion percentage above 50 against the two ranked opponents he faced (Oklahoma, West Virginia).
It has been a struggle for Baylor, and things probably won’t be too different in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. This won’t be a blowout, but the shaky Bear rush defense won’t be able to handle McNichols.
Prediction: Boise State defeats Baylor, 37-24.
Next: West Virginia's Bowl Game
Dec 3, 2016; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Gary Jennings (12) scores a touchdown and celebrates with running back Justin Crawford (25) and wide receiver Marcus Simms (8) during the third quarter against the Baylor Bears at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Russell Athletic Bowl – Dec. 28Miami vs. West Virginia
The first ranked Big 12 team to be in action will be No. 14 West Virginia. They will take on Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl on December 28.
The Mountaineers finished with a 10-2 record in 2016, with their only two blemishes coming against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. These were both double-digit losses and by far the two toughest opponents of WVU’s season, though. Despite this, they still won the games they had to with strong defensive play and running back Justin Crawford, who ran for over 1,000 yards on 7.4 yards per carry.
Miami had a nice start to the year, but fell off once their ACC schedule began. They actually won their first four games, lost the next four, then finished off with four consecutive victories, so it seemed like a tale of three seasons for the Hurricanes. Three of their four losses were also by less than a touchdown, so they didn’t necessarily play poor in games 5-8.
Both teams have stout running games, which should be put to the test at the Russell Athletic Bowl. It could come down to the quarterbacks, with Bray Kaaya having been sharp to close the year and Skyler Howard having up and down performances. This should be a close game, but it will be Miami walking out with the close win.
Prediction: Miami defeats West Virginia, 31-28.
Next: Kansas State's Bowl Game
Dec 3, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Kenny Hill (7) sets to pass against Kansas State Wildcats during the second half of an NCAA football game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Wildcats won 30-6. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl – Dec. 28Texas A&M vs. Kansas State
Kansas State may have had the quietest above .500 record in the Big 12 in 2016. They started the year at the .500 mark with a 3-3 record, but rattled off five wins in their last six games to finish fourth in the conference. They would only suffer losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia in conference play.
There had been a time where Texas A&M controlled the No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff. Then they had bad losses to Ole Miss and Mississippi State, which ruined their hopes of not only getting into the CFP, but a New Year’s Six bowl game. So, they are now in the AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl with little momentum and a much-needed win to come on December 28 to finish their season strong. Doing this would take head coach Kevin Sumlin’s job status off the table, if he was ever in jeopardy.
This game may be an opportunity to give Jake Hubenak, the potential 2017 quarterback, more time under center. Signal caller Trevor Knight is set to have his final collegiate game, but didn’t seem 100-percent against LSU after coming back early from a shoulder injury. Will he stay on the field for long?
Kansas State has been on a roll lately with their dual-threat quarterback Jesse Ertz and three men at running back controlling things with over 1,400 combined rushing yards. They should be able to beat a down and out Texas A&M team.
Prediction: Kansas State defeats Texas A&M, 37-30
Next: Oklahoma State's Bowl Game
Nov 19, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys linebacker Justin Phillips (19) celebrates with teammates after making an interception during the second half against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Valero Alamo Bowl – Dec. 29Oklahoma State vs. Colorado
If it wasn’t for the early season referee blunder against Central Michigan or the bad loss to Baylor, we may be talking about Oklahoma State differently here. They would be in a top bowl game, potentially in the New Year’s Six, and even the Big 12 Conference winner. Alas, we still have them playing Colorado, though, in the Valero Alamo Bowl on December 29.
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The Cowboy defense is a bit rough, as they’re 95th in the FBS in passing yards allowed (3,031). They recently allowed Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield to torch them for 288 yards on just 19 passing attempts. Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes also had 361 yards of his own. They’ll be going against Sefo Liufau, whose injured presence led to Colorado being crushed in the Pac-12 Championship game against Washington. If he’s going to be healthy for this matchup, then Oklahoma State may have their hands full.
The Buffaloes also have Phillip Lindsey, who has 16 rushing touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards on the season. Oklahoma State is 90th in the nation in rush defense, so this may be a problem as well.
However, Mike Gundy’s offense can’t be avoided. They have been led by quarterback Mason Rudolph, who has nearly 4,000 passing yards and just four interceptions. James Washington has reeled in 1,209 of those yards as a receiver, looking like one of the best wideouts in the Big 12. This passing game has made for a top 10 offense in all of college football, which has somewhat offset the poor defense.
If Liufau isn’t 100-percent, then Oklahoma State may be able to score enough to outlast this tough Colorado defense. If he’s good to go, this should be a close one with this Pac-12 team taking the game in a close one.
Prediction: Colorado defeats Oklahoma State, 39-38.
Nov 19, 2016; Fort Worth, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Kyle Hicks (21) and center Austin Schlottmann (51) and running back Trevorris Johnson (24) react after not scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Dec. 30Georgia vs. TCU
TCU steps into this bowl game with a solid passing game led by the somewhat inconsistent Kenny “Trill” Hill (15 touchdowns, 13 interceptions). However, don’t rule out their ground game, which has over 2,300 yards this season. Kyle Hicks led the way with 954 yards and 12 touchdowns. Hill even had nine scores of his own.
On the other side of the ball, though, the Horned Frogs struggled on defense. They ranked 84th in passing yards allowed and 71st when stopping the ground game. The Georgia offense never proved to be dominant during the regular season, though. Quarterback Jacob Eason only threw for 2,266 yards and a 55-percent completion percentage. They did have a solid running game with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel leading the way, but the overall offense got lost in the crowded SEC.
This one could be a blowout, despite these two schools having a fair amount of flaws. The ground game of TCU should come up big with the Bulldogs struggling to stop running backs over the past few weeks.
Result: TCU defeats Georgia, 35-17.
Dec 3, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners coaches and players take a team photo with the Big 12 championship trophy after the game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Sugar Bowl – Jan. 2Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Possibly the hottest team in college football has been Oklahoma. Ever since starting the season 1-2, they won nine straight games, including beating West Virginia and Oklahoma State to close the season. It made up for the early season losses to Houston and Ohio State, both ranked at the time. Baker Mayfield, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook all came into their own to lead this high-powered offense in Norman. These four made up for just about the entire Sooner offense, and two of them (Mayfield and Westbrook) even were Heisman Trophy finalists.
The problem for Oklahoma has been on defense. They ranked 52nd in rush defense and 117th in pass defense, which isn’t far off from being the worst in the nation. These have been glaring flaws which hurt the team early on, but has been somewhat masked with the success over the past two months.
What plays in the Sooner’s favor is Auburn’s offense. They had one of the best defenses in the SEC, but passing the ball became a program for this program. Sean White had five 200-yard passing games, but also had some clunky performances along the way. An injury near the end of the season further exposed the Tiger offense with Jeremy Johnson struggling to get going. They did win a game, 55-0, but this came against Alabama A&M.
The Auburn running game is dangerous, however. Kamryn Pettway, Kerryon Johnson, and Kam Martin each had a significant impact throughout the season. Even quarterback John Franklin III got his chance to show off his legs in certain packages. He once had an 80-yard rush to help push his yards per carry to 10.1
Both teams certainly have their flaws, but it may be tough for Auburn to keep up with Oklahoma’s passing game. This may not be a blowout, but there will be a multi-score deficit.
Prediction: Oklahoma defeats Auburn, 44-27.
There will be plenty of Big 12 action to go down during the college football bowl season. Which teams will win their respective games?
