College Football

2023 Big 12 football predictions: Projected standings and players to watch preview

Updated Aug. 29, 2023 10:40 a.m. ET

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

The Big 12 had a surprise entrant in the College Football Playoff last season thanks to TCU's magical run to the championship game. Even more remarkable, the Horned Frogs didn't even win the conference championship — that honor went to Kansas State.

Here's a team-by-team breakdown of the conference from FOX Sports college football analyst RJ Young, with teams listed in predicted order of finish.

Texas
Coach: Steve Sarkisian

Last year: 8-5 overall, 6-3 Big 12

Postseason: Lost to Washington in Alamo Bowl

Key players: QB Quinn Ewers, WR Xavier Worthy, LB Jaylan Ford

What we’re excited to watch: This is Steve Sarkisian’s best roster since he first arrived in Austin. The Longhorns can make a loud statement with a win against Alabama on Sept. 9.

What success looks like: Winning the Big 12 title.

Oklahoma
Coach: Brent Venables

Last year: 6-7 overall, 3-6 Big 12

Postseason: Lost to Florida State in Cheez-It Bowl

Key players: QB Dillon Gabriel, LB Dasan McCullough

What we’re excited to watch: A retooled defense that looks more like the kind associated with coach Brent Venables in the past — one that doesn't give up 30 points and 461 yards a game.

What success looks like: Ten or more wins — with wins against Texas and Oklahoma State — in the Sooners' last year in the Big 12.

TCU
Coach: Sonny Dykes

Last year: 13-2 overall, 9-0 Big 12

Postseason: Beat Michigan in Fiesta Bowl (national semifinal), lost to Georgia in national championship

Key players: QB Chandler Morris, RB Trey Sanders, S Bud Clark

What we’re excited to watch: Prove that last year’s national title runner-up finish was no fluke.

What success looks like: Win 10 or more games, staking a claim as one of the best programs in the Big 12.

RJ Young sits down with TCU's Sonny Dykes, Bud Clark and others

Texas Tech
Coach: Joey McGuire

Last year: 8-5 overall, 5-4 Big 12

Postseason: Beat Ole Miss in Texas Bowl

Key players: QB Tyler Shough, WR Drae McCray, DB Malik Dunlap

What we’re excited to watch: Tech is on the verge of being great. If there's a 2022 Texas Christian-style program to watch this season, it's the Red Raiders who could announce their assault on the Big 12 with a win against Oregon at Jones AT&T Stadium.

What success looks like: Reach the Big 12 title game. The Red Raiders haven't won a conference title since 1994, when they took a share of the then-Southwest Conference crown, and haven't won an outright conference title since 1954. Joey McGuire’s Texas Tech squad has a chance to end that drought.

Kansas State
Coach: Chris Klieman

Last year: 10-4 overall, 7-2 Big 12

Postseason: Lost to Alabama in Sugar Bowl

Key players: QB Will Howard, RB Treshaun Ward

What we’re excited to watch: Howard can ascend into the upper echelon of the sport’s quarterbacks with a solid performance this season after leading K-State to the Big 12 crown last season.

What success looks like: Repeat as conference champions.

Kansas
Coach: Lance Leipold

Last year: 6-7 overall, 3-6 Big 12

Postseason: Lost to Arkansas in Liberty Bowl

Key players: QB Jalon Daniels, RB Devin Neal, S Kenny Logan

What we’re excited to watch: A healthy Daniels is a dark horse contender for this year's Heisman Trophy.

What success looks like: Go bowling for a second straight year.

Baylor
Coach: Dave Aranda

Last year: 6-7 overall, 4-5 Big 12

Postseason: Lost to Air Force in Armed Forces Bowl

Key players: QB Blake Shapen, RB Richard Reese

What we’re excited to watch: The odd-year charm to work; In 2019 and 2021, Baylor reached the Big 12 title game, while the Bears finished with losing records in 2020 and 2022. In 2023, Dave Aranda’s squad has the best chance of any mid-tier Big 12 team to finish in the Big 12 title game for the third time in five years.

What success looks like: Nine wins.

Oklahoma State
Coach: Mike Gundy

Last year: 7-6 overall, 4-5 Big 12

Postseason: Lost to Wisconsin in Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Key players: QB Alan Bowman, RB Braylin Presley, LB Collin Oliver

What we’re excited to watch: Which quarterback is the starter? Mike Gundy has Michigan transfer Bowman, Garret Rangel, Gunnar Gundy and freshman Zane Flores competing for the starting job, and he's said he could play multiple quarterbacks this season. Expect Bowman to win the job.

What success looks like: Put together a winning record in the Big 12 play. The Cowboys finished 7-6 for the season, but just 4-5 in conference play.

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BYU
Coach: Kalani Sitake

Last year: 8-5 overall as Independent

Postseason: Beat SMU in New Mexico Bowl

Key players: QB Kedon Slovis, LB Ben Bywater, DE Tyler Batty

What we’re excited to watch: BYU’s first season as a Power 5 program. The Cougars would like nothing more than to prove they belong.