College Football

Can Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams lead USC to its first-ever CFP appearance?

Updated Jul. 13, 2023 3:20 p.m. ET

College Football and College Basketball Writer

Caleb Williams has been described by many as being a generational talent. But do the USC Trojans have the roster makeup outside of the reigning Heisman Trophy winner to make a run at the College Football Playoff this season?

If the Trojans are going to make their first-ever CFP appearance, they will need to see improvement from a defense that finished 106th in the nation on that side of the ball in 2022. Lincoln Riley made it a point to bring in several transfers to help improve his defense, including a pair of defensive linemen expected to make an immediate impact in Bear Alexander and Anthony Lucas.

In addition to welcoming in a talented class of transfers, Riley and his staff are also set to bring in a top-10 recruiting class, highlighted by three five-star prospects in Zachariah Branch, Malachi Nelson and Duce Robinson.

With the return of Williams and the welcomed addition of several impact transfers and freshmen, expectations are sky-high for the Trojans in 2023. What should fans expect from Riley's team this year? FOX Sports college football writers Michael Cohen and Bryan Fischer are here to weigh in on all of it.

A year ago, USC fell one game short of a likely invite to the College Football Playoff when the Trojans were upended by Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game. But with head coach Lincoln Riley welcoming back reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, will the Trojans break through and reach the 2023 CFP?

Bryan Fischer: The motto that USC’s team has adopted for this season is ‘Job’s Not Finished’ in reference to those shortcomings against Utah. The more I look at things, the more it seems like this is a team on a mission to get to the promised land of the College Football Playoff.

Yes, the focus on the Trojans undoubtedly starts with Williams. He might be the most exciting player to wear the Cardinal and Gold since Reggie Bush and – the really scary thing – he might be even better this season with the diversity of weapons at his disposal. He’s got the returning leading receiver in the Pac-12 in Dorian Singer, a trusted veteran in Brenden Rice, and new toys to play with in Robinson and Branch.

If USC’s strategy to simply outscore teams worked well enough last season though, I think the biggest cause for optimism about Riley’s crew getting over the hump in 2023 comes from the defense. Nobody expects this to be a top 15 type of unit this season, but I expect significant strides to be made in terms of their ability to limit big plays and force more three-and-outs than they did a year ago. Personnel is a big reason why, with big upgrades along the defensive line and improved depth at linebacker and on the backend.

Then there’s the schedule, which, while tough enough, feels quite manageable. The team should be 6-0 heading to South Bend in mid-October, and they get both Utah and Washington at the Coliseum. Even if the Trojans trip up once, that shouldn’t keep them out of what looks to be a pretty wide-open CFP race that kind of feels like a lot of question marks beyond Georgia and Michigan.

Add it all up and I can certainly see USC in one of the semifinals this year. The swagger and belief from those Pete Carroll days in Los Angeles feels like it has returned to the program and there’s a product on the field that is capable of getting the job done.

Michael Cohen: As Bryan mentioned, every conversation about USC begins in the same place: Riley’s incredible offense. Not only do the Trojans welcome the best quarterback in the country back to campus, but they also have one of the most talented receiving corps in college football that should give Williams more than enough weapons to challenge for a second consecutive Heisman Trophy. The loss of No. 1 wideout Jordan Addison to the NFL (59 catches, 875 yards, 8 TDs) will be offset by the arrival of Singer, an impact transfer who topped 1,100 yards on 66 catches at Arizona last season. And supporting Singer are the Trojans’ second-, third-, and fourth-leading receivers from last season, all of whom are all back in 2023: Tahj Washington (50 catches, 785 yards, 6 TDs), Mario Williams (40 catches, 631 yards, 5 TDs) and Rice (39 catches, 611 yards, 4 TDs).

Because of that firepower, a modest improvement on defense might be all USC needs to get over the hump and into the CFP. A year ago, two of the Trojans’ three losses came by two combined points in a reflection of just how close Riley was to a near-perfect debut in Los Angeles. The only lopsided defeat was a 47-24 mauling in the Pac-12 title game against Utah, though Williams limped his way through the second half with an injury. But if Williams stays healthy in 2023 and the defense can keep big-time opponents like Oregon and Washington under 40 points — which is a perfectly reasonable ask of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch — it’s not hard to see USC reaching the national semifinals come January.

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USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch oversaw a unit that finished 106th in total defense and 93rd in scoring defense last season. Ultimately, Riley decided to give Grinch another chance in 2023. Was this the right decision? Is there reason to believe the Trojans will be improved on defense?

Michael: Figuring out the 2022 USC defense is as difficult in hindsight as it was in real time last season, when week after week and game after game there were critical flaws on Grinch’s side of the ball. It wasn’t just that the Trojans allowed a ghastly 271.7 passing yards per game in Pac-12 play, or that they allowed a staggering 43.4 points per game in their final five games away from home. They also racked up 145 missed tackles in 14 games to dwarf the combined average of 115.3 missed tackles from last year’s four CFP participants, according to Pro Football Focus. There were only five teams in college football that surrendered more plays of 50-plus yards than USC.

But some of the Trojans’ other defensive numbers were, quite simply, incredible. They tied for third nationally in interceptions, tied for 10th in sacks and led the country in turnover margin at plus-21, with no other school finishing better than plus-16 and only 12 programs finishing above plus-10. Their final tally of 256 quarterback pressures was better than Alabama (254), Michigan (250) and Iowa (213).

While those types of statistics are unlikely to be replicated in 2023, it’s also unlikely the Trojans will be quite so leaky in points and yards this season. They’ve added several potential standouts in the transfer portal with Alexander (No. 14 overall transfer, No. 1 DL), Lucas (No. 51 overall transfer, No. 6 DL) and former Arizona cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace (No. 33 overall transfer, No. 6 CB) to mesh with highly touted freshmen like edge rusher Braylan Shelbey (No. 60 overall, No. 8 edge) and linebacker Tackett Curtis (No. 146 overall, No. 12 LB). The wild statistical variance from last year’s defense coupled with a strong group of newcomers was probably enough to warrant another season for Grinch.

Bryan: As bad as those numbers were for the Trojans' defense last season, they somehow felt worse between the lines. Tackling was an issue. Giving up big plays was an issue. For long stretches, confidence was a big sticking point too. But they still forced turnovers at a wildly unsustainable rate and got to the quarterback for sacks and pressures at a high level to balance things out and do just enough for Williams to do his thing.

If nothing else, I’d expect this 2023 unit to be much more consistent and level-headed. No, they won’t get as many turnovers, but they should do all the other little things better as both coaches and players to be respectable enough to make strides.

Perhaps the biggest reason to believe in this unit comes down to personnel. Mason Cobb was a terrific portal pickup and should help in the middle as a veteran linebacker. Alexander, the former Georgia DT, knows what it takes to play at a high level and should be a huge presence against a group of Pac-12 offensive lines that seem a little softer in the interior for 2023. The secondary, though it lost some names, feels as deep as it has been in years too – especially if somebody like Calen Bullock can stay healthy.

This still isn’t going to be a group that lights the world on fire, but they will be able to do enough to climb toward respectability in all the major defensive categories in 2023. If they don’t, then Grinch will be a buyout candidate come November.

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Few programs have utilized the transfer portal with as much vigor as USC since Riley arrived ahead of the 2022 campaign. Their incoming recruiting class features 12 transfers from Power 5 programs and 15 transfers overall. Which newcomer are you most interested in seeing this fall?

Bryan: It happened so early in the portal cycle that you almost forget that Lucas went from a highly prized recruit at Texas A&M to joining USC. He is not the sort of body type – also capable of playing inside – that you see a lot of in the Pac-12 and his presence alone could be a big factor in the team being much better against the run while still coming close to the pressure and sack rates they had a year ago. If he starts and does well, that is the type of impact transfer in an area of need that is vital for Riley to take the program to the next level.

Offensively, I’m curious to see how things shakeout between two transfers in the backfield with Austin Jones and former South Carolina tailback MarShawn Lloyd. Both are capable of putting up yards, but seeing who ultimately gets the majority of the carries should be something to monitor. There are so many weapons all over the place, not to mention the star power at quarterback, that most overlook the USC running game being pretty reliable a year ago. The combination of Jones and Lloyd could help elevate that even more given how many light boxes they’ll face and their ability to break big gains off some of those counter plays.

Michael: On defense, Roland-Wallace should have an opportunity to earn an immediate starting spot given USC’s struggles and ensuing personnel losses last season. The former Arizona standout was a three-star prospect coming out of high school but developed into one of the better corners in the Pac-12 over the last four seasons. He allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards (378) of any Power 5 cornerback with at least 450 coverage snaps in 2022, according to PFF, and never allowed a completion longer than 27 yards, which was tied with Alabama corner Kool-Aid McKinstry for the best mark among that same group of players. The one area he needs to improve is reducing penalties. Roland-Wallace was flagged eight times last season to lead all Pac-12 cornerbacks.

On the other side of the ball, Riley dove into the portal for what he hopes will be a trio of plug-and-play starters along the offensive line. Former Wyoming lineman Emmanuel Pregnon (No. 40 overall transfer, No. 5 IOL) and former Washington State lineman Jarrett Kingston (No. 219 overall transfer, No. 13 IOL) are expected to enter fall camp atop the depth chart at left guard and right guard, respectively, while former Florida offensive tackle Michael Tarquin (No. 223 overall, No. 18 OT) is tentatively penciled in at left tackle. That’s a lot of new faces protecting the team’s most critical asset in Williams.

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Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.