College Football

CFP rankings: What each contender wants to see on championship weekend

Updated Nov. 30, 2021 9:14 p.m. ET

By RJ Young
FOX Sports College Football Writer

The Fighting Irish don’t have a head coach, yet they could make the College Football Playoff if a couple of teams ranked ahead of them stumble during this weekend of conference championships.

The only team that feels assured of selection is the Georgia Bulldogs, but from No. 2 Michigan to No. 5 Oklahoma State, there’s not just a conference championship but also a national championship still to play for.

Let’s look at how this weekend’s wins and losses will affect the CFP committee’s rankings come Selection Sunday.

No. 1 Georgia (12-0)

Even if Georgia loses the SEC championship game to Alabama, I have a hard time believing the committee won’t rank the Bulldogs among the top four teams in the country. They have been nothing but dominant this season — far and away better than any other program in the country.

In a season that has been filled with surprises and upsets, no one believes any team but Georgia will win the national title.

No. 3 Alabama (11-1)

Which is why if Alabama manages to upset UGA, it would become the biggest upset of the season.

An SEC championship win for the Tide would not only solidify their position in the playoff — possibly at No. 1 — but also lead us all to believe that the three teams around the Bulldogs are closer than we might’ve thought. Parity would be in play.

However, if the Tide lose, they will be at the mercy of the teams in the three other conference championship games and the committee’s feeling about one that is not. There’s a slim chance that Alabama could still make the CFP with a loss, but that would require Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati to lose, too.

No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1)

The Irish are the most fascinating team in the sport. They’re 11-1 with a loss to one of just two undefeated teams left among 130, but they do not have a head coach.

After beating Stanford 45-14, Brian Kelly claimed that Notre Dame had made its case for inclusion in the CFP. "We’ve got one of the best four teams, in my mind, in the country, without question, and we’re ready to prove it," he said.

Three days later, he left what he believes is one of the four best teams in the sport to coach LSU, sending an 11-win team into a tailspin.

If Alabama loses to Georgia, the Irish might become the first team to be selected for the CFP without the coach who led them there. But they also need more help than just a loss for Alabama.

This weekend, the Irish will be not only big Georgia fans but massive Baylor, Iowa and Houston fans, too.

No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1)

With a loss to Baylor in the Big 12 title game, the Cowboys most assuredly won’t play in the CFP. But with a win, OSU will have a better case than Notre Dame to earn an invitation to the CFP, based on one aspect of the committee’s protocol: Conference championships matter.

ND, a Catholic school program that enjoys an open marriage with the ACC, doesn’t play for a conference championship, even though it plays a predominantly ACC schedule. There’s also the wrinkle that, for the first time since the inception of the CFP, the ACC champion won’t play in a CFP semifinal, which speaks to the lack of strength in that conference this year.

OSU, on the other hand, will have beaten two 10-win teams in back-to-back weeks to win the Big 12 crown. The Pokes would show up on Selection Sunday with a better résumé than Notre Dame or Alabama.

In fact, only two teams might have better résumés than OSU. One of them just knocked off the 2020 national runner-up and defending Big Ten champion.

No. 2 Michigan (11-1)

This one feels simple: Win, and you’re in.

The Wolverines’ only loss is to a 10-win Michigan State team with the league Coach of the Year at its helm. And the Wolverines earned the biggest win of Jim Harbaugh’s career Saturday, with a remarkably decisive victory against the Ohio State Buckeyes in Ann Arbor, stopping what looked like the best offense in college football from scoring more than 27 and dropping 42 on the Buckeyes' defense.

The Wolverines face what is essentially a version of themselves for the Big Ten championship game on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Iowa Hawkeyes are capable of spoiling Michigan’s dream season, but a win for the Wolverines would mean they don’t have to worry about what any other team does.

The same is true for what could be the first Group of 5 program to earn selection to the CFP.

No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0)

Again, win, and you're in. Although beating an 11-win Houston team looks like no easy task, the Bearcats are the only undefeated team that would miss the CFP with a loss Saturday in the American Athletic Conference championship game. With a win, though, Cincinnati is in the playoff.

A loss for the Bearcats would open the door for Notre Dame, regardless of what Michigan, Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma State do. The only remaining concern for the Irish, in that case, would be how the CFP committee feels Sunday about conference championships as criteria.

A loss for Georgia would ensure that Alabama makes the CFP and force the committee to choose two of the three other conference champions if chalk holds and Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati each win their respective conference.

A loss for Michigan, Oklahoma State or Cincinnati would almost assure the inclusion of Notre Dame, no matter what Alabama and Georgia do.

The committee has never included a two-loss team in the CFP, and there’s little to no reason to believe it would do so this time.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The No. 1 Ranked Show with RJ Young." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young, and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube. He is not on a StepMill.