College Football

2023 College Football Playoff scenarios: Could Big Ten get two teams in again?

Updated Nov. 27, 2023 1:57 p.m. ET

As much as the country was counting down the days for Thanksgiving, college football fans far and wide were watching the clock tick away until something far more important: The Game.

This year's edition of the contest on "Big Noon Saturday" might have been among the most unique in the illustrious history of the defining Midwest rivalry, featuring an ongoing scandal to sort out for the home side in Ann Arbor, head coach Jim Harbaugh hanging out at home and a nervous set of Buckeyes hoping to end a rare losing streak.

But aside from The Game itself, a 30-24 victory for No. 3 Michigan over No. 2 Ohio State, at stake was something even more tangible than another year's worth of bragging rights with a pathway toward a Big Ten title — and perhaps a national championship — in the balance.

As a result, here's a look at how Saturday's big clash could impact the postseason picture.

SCENARIO: THE BIG TEN GETS TWO TEAMS IN AGAIN

What needed to happen in The Game: Much like what happened in last year's College Football Playoff, in which the Buckeyes backed into a berth despite losing their last regular season game, Ohio State's close loss this year keeps alive Big Ten hopes of putting two teams in the semifinals. Was Saturday's result close enough? Will it be enough? It will be far more difficult to accomplish given how many one- or zero-loss teams are around in 2023 compared to 2022, but the committee has given great respect to OSU's résumé so far and that could come in handy when sorting out the rankings this season.

Still in play?: Yes.

What else must happen: Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, Florida State loses to either Florida or Louisville, Washington wins out and Texas is upset in the Big 12 Championship Game.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan highlights

Projected CFP: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Washington, 4. Ohio State

In this scenario, there are three undefeated Power 5 champions — Georgia, Michigan and Washington — who would naturally be in the four-team Playoff. Alabama, Texas and Oregon would have two losses — all but eliminating them from contention.

As a result, the committee would have to decide between Ohio State, a potential one-loss ACC champion Louisville (if they beat FSU) or the one-loss Seminoles, who wouldn't have starting quarterback Jordan Travis after he was lost for the season with an injury.

The Buckeyes would own the "best" loss of the group — on the road to the No. 3 Wolverines, by just one score. They'd also have two top-20 wins over Penn State and Notre Dame plus victories over as many as seven teams that made a bowl game.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, would have just the top-20 win over Notre Dame (which they share with Ohio State) plus a potential one over the short-handed ‘Noles. They would have the distinction of being a conference champion, but that hasn't mattered all too much in the CFP era to the committee.

Should Florida State lose to Florida but still beat the Cards in Charlotte, they may have just one or two (counting the season-opener against LSU) top-25 wins and would still have to battle the perception that they're just fine without Travis in the starting lineup. Their lone potential loss being to a Gators side that is just .500, while only having one win over a team that won more than eight games in the regular season, would not be close to the Buckeyes' résumé.

Hence, the committee would likely give Ryan Day's team the nod and set up another rematch with Georgia in a CFP Semifinal.

SCENARIO: THE COMMITTEE'S WORST NIGHTMARE

What needs to happen in The Game: Michigan beats Ohio State in a close nail-biter.

Still in play?: Yes.

What else must happen: Alabama tops Georgia, Oregon beats Washington, Florida State wins out and Texas wins the Big 12 in a close game to finish with just one loss.

Projected CFP: *Man shrugging emoji*

In this scenario, the only undefeated power conference champions would be Michigan and Florida State. The aforementioned NCAA issues with the Wolverines aside, they would likely end up as the top seed. It would be a little more difficult to determine where the Seminoles would go, however, given that they wouldn’t have their starting quarterback, plus would have just two top-25 wins (LSU and Louisville) — neither of whom may be in the top 15 come Selection Sunday.

The committee may not like it, but those two are probably in the top four with some wiggle room to maneuver FSU around in terms of seeding.

Then things get difficult, as you would potentially have five one-loss teams fighting for two spots. The Tide would be SEC champs over the Bulldogs, but they did lose to the Longhorns this season. Texas would claim that if you're going to put Alabama in, the committee should respect the head-to-head win and make sure they're in too (even if UT hasn't played like a top-four team since). Meanwhile, Oregon and Washington would be clamoring for inclusion as well given how many quality wins they have on their cards.

And that's to say nothing of the reigning champions with a pair of impressive top-15 victories to their credit and only a neutral site loss to their name.

We haven't really had a ton of controversial decisions in the College Football Playoff era, but this final one of the four-team phase certainly could wind up being the most talked about one should this transpire on the field and in the committee room the next few weeks.

Step one in such chaos comes this Saturday, however, as the action at the Big House will go a long way in determining whether the committee's task in Dallas next weekend is an easy one or a hard one.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.