College Football

College football bowl projections: Forecasting the New Year's Six games

Updated Nov. 30, 2021 10:30 p.m. ET

By Joel Klatt
FOX Sports College Football Analyst

Rivalry weekend shook up the College Football Playoff rankings, with Ohio State and Oklahoma both suffering their second losses of the season in stunning fashion.

More shake-ups are almost assured in the conference championships, especially with No. 1 Georgia facing No. 3 Alabama in the SEC championship in Atlanta.

Let's cut through the chaos, project this weekend's winners and forecast which teams will end up in the New Year's Six bowls.

Here are my predictions:

DEC. 31: College Football Playoff national semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys

The most obvious selection is Georgia as the top-ranked team featuring a historically great defense. The Bulldogs have blown out everyone, outscoring opponents 488-83 on their way to completing their first undefeated regular season since 1982.

Even a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game would likely not move Georgia down too far. The Bulldogs might even stay at No. 1 with a close defeat. Either way, Georgia is most likely locked into the top four.

Oklahoma State is hoping to become the first Big 12 school not named Oklahoma to make it to the CFP. Wins against Baylor and Oklahoma to finish their season, as well as winning the Big 12 regular-season crown outright, would likely be enough to push the Cowboys into the CFP for the first time school history.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats

This is where things get interesting.

Michigan, fresh off its first victory over rival Ohio State since 2011, moved all the way to No. 2 in the committee's rankings Tuesday.

If the Wolverines beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship (8 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX and the FOX Sports App), they would clinch their first appearance in the CFP. Michigan would also be the first Big Ten school not named Ohio State to make the final four since Michigan State made it in 2015.

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Joel Klatt reacts after Michigan Wolverines defeated rival Ohio State for the first time since 2011.

Cincinnati, which sat at No. 4 in Tuesday's rankings, would jump to the third spot if the Bearcats beat Houston in the AAC Championship Game (and Alabama falls to Georgia in the SEC Championship). Cincinnati boasts an undefeated record and a signature victory at Notre Dame, something the committee no doubt is weighing heavily.

DEC. 30

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

With the Orange Bowl one of the CFP games this season, the ACC champion is likely to get an invite to the Peach Bowl. I am forecasting that champion to be Pittsburgh, as the Panthers have played well all season behind star quarterback Kenny Pickett.

The last at-large selection should be Ole Miss. The Rebels sit eighth in the CFP rankings after beating a decent Mississippi State team on Thanksgiving in the Egg Bowl. Heisman candidate Matt Corral and coach Lane Kiffin should earn a New Year’s Six spot after going 10-2 with an SEC schedule.

JAN. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Michigan State gets this spot as one of the at-large selections by the committee. The Spartans' meltdown against Ohio State is certainly an argument against them, but their victory over Michigan suddenly looks better. That, combined with the fact that most other teams also have two losses, should be enough to put Michigan State in this spot.

Notre Dame is hoping for maximum chaos in the conference championships. If everything falls apart, the Irish are likely to slide into the CFP as a one-loss, big-name team. At first glance, the Irish look like they have a claim to the top four, but with their season completed, they have no real signature wins to hang their hat on. They also lost at home to Cincinnati, making it feel certain that the Bearcats will be ahead of them if they win the AAC Championship.

If Michigan and Oklahoma State both win their championship games, it certainly seems that Notre Dame’s résumé will fall short of the CFP.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Utah Utes

This might be the most obvious of the matchups. The Rose Bowl is the Pac-12 champion against the Big Ten champ. They are almost certainly going to take Ohio State and the winner of the Pac-12 title game between Oregon and Utah.

Ohio State making it to the Rose Bowl is predicated on Michigan handling Iowa in the Big Ten title game. If the Hawkeyes pull the upset, they will be headed to the Rose Bowl, and Ohio State likely will be headed to another New Year’s Six bowl. The Buckeyes should feel good about their place in the New Year’s Six, given their standing with the committee.

Utah is positioned for its first Rose Bowl in school history with a sweep of the Ducks, but Oregon would claim the spot if it can avenge its 38-7 loss in Salt Lake City.

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Baylor is in great position to move up the board. With a victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship this weekend, there is a decent chance that the Bears could find themselves in the top four when it counts. That's not too shabby when you consider that coach Dave Aranda and Baylor finished 2-7 last season.

If the Bears win the Big 12, it would come down to a comparison between Notre Dame and Baylor to see which team gets the fourth spot. Baylor’s wins are likely a little more impressive, and thus the Bears should get the edge.

For just the second time in CFP history, Alabama would be left outside the top four. This all changes, of course, if the Tide can upset undefeated Georgia. Never say never, but Alabama's recent play makes that seem unlikely.

Even if the defending national champions lose to Georgia on Saturday, they are a lock for a New Year’s Six selection. There remains a scenario in which a close loss to Georgia could help Bama sneak into the top four, given its clout and reputation. That's not a great chance, but it could happen if things break right.

Former record-setting University of Colorado quarterback Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst, sitting alongside play-by-play announcer Gus Johnson and reporter Jenny Taft. Klatt also provides analysis leading up to and during the NFL Draft.