College Football

Photo Finish

Updated Jul. 16, 2021 12:03 p.m. ET

By RJ Young
FOX Sports college football reporter

The most chaotic season in college football history will finish with a wild weekend in which as many as seven conference championship games will have an impact on the College Football Playoff.

Let's break down all of the Power 5 title games and two intriguing Group of 5 matchups that threaten to shake up the usual party of the blue bloods.

ACC Championship

No. 2 Notre Dame (10-0) vs. No. 4 Clemson (7-1), Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ABC

The stakes: The rematch.

The FOX Bet line: Clemson by 10.5, over/under of 60.5.

In the first meeting on Nov. 7, the Fighting Irish needed two overtimes to hand Clemson just its second loss in the Tigers’ last 38 games and just their third since losing to Alabama in the 2018 national title game. But the Tigers were down three starters on their defense and without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence on the road in South Bend, Indiana.

Many believe Ian Book and ND are not likely to pull the double against a fully healthy Clemson defense and with Lawrence back in the lineup. After all, freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei completed 29 of 44 passes for 439 yards with two touchdowns against Clark Lea’s vaunted Irish defense in Clemson's 47-40 loss.

Kyren Williams, right, and the Fighting Irish will try to turn back Notre Dame for the second time in six weeks after winning one of the season's best games in early November in South Bend.

What’s to say Lawrence can’t do even more damage than Uiagalelei on a neutral field in Charlotte on Saturday?

For Notre Dame, it’s a chance to win a conference title in the program’s first (and likely last) chance to take a league crown.

There’s also the small matter of securing a place in the College Football Playoff semifinal, and the ACC title winner is definitely getting in.

But a win by one-loss Clemson against undefeated Notre Dame could mean both participants in the conference championship will earn selection into the Playoff for the first time.

A win by Notre Dame would leave open the chance of a Group of 5 champion or a one-loss best of the rest — No. 5 Texas A&M, anyone? — securing the coveted fourth spot in the Playoff.

Each team received a conference sanctioned bye to the title game due to COVID-19 outbreaks and will be rested and raring to play.

SEC Championship

No. 1 Alabama (10-0) vs. No. 11 Florida (7-2), Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, CBS

The stakes: Bama’s in, but can two-loss Florida pull the stunner?

The FOX Bet line: Alabama by 16, over/under of 74.

Nick Saban's defense got a wake-up call in early October when Alabama allowed 48 points to Ole Miss in a game that featured an SEC record 1,370 yards.

Since then, the Tide defense has been stifling, allowing an SEC-best 16.8 points per game this season.

DeVonta Smith might be the most explosive player in the nation, and the Alabama receiver is making a case to be included among the Heisman Trophy finalists.

That Alabama defense is balanced by a dynamic offense, led by quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith that is putting up 49.5 points per contest.

Reflecting their dominance, the Tide is the Associated Press unanimous No. 1-ranked team as well as the Playoff selection committee’s numero uno and a whopping 16-point favorite against Dan Mullen’s Gators.

However, the thought is if Heisman-favorite Kyle Trask, and All-American-caliber tight end Kyle Pitts can lead the Gators into a shootout against Alabama — as Ole Miss did — they can knock off the best team in college football.

Florida's playoff hopes took a massive hit when the Gators were stunned by an undermanned LSU squad 37-34 on Saturday in The Swamp.

A loss here in Atlanta probably isn’t enough for the Tide to lose its spot in the Playoff, but it could knock a one-loss ND out of the Playoff picture (if the Irish lose to Clemson in the ACC title game) along with an undefeated Pac-12 champ and Group of 5 hopefuls Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina.

Big Ten Championship

No. 3 Ohio State (5-0) vs. No. 15 Northwestern (6-1), Saturday, noon ET, FOX

The stakes: OSU wins and it’s in, but does Northwestern have any case?

Pure and simple: The Buckeyes have to win and win big to keep their place among the semifinalists.

With the fewest games played among any team seriously considered in contention for selection, there’s already a discussion being forced by Clemson coach Dabo Swinney that Ohio State should be disqualified from Playoff consideration.

Master Teague III and the Buckeyes don't just need to beat Northwestern, they need to win in impressive fashion.

Swinney, no doubt, is trying to protect his team’s place in the Playoff should the Tigers suffer a second loss to Notre Dame and be compared to a 6-0 Big Ten champion. But winning a conference championship is one of the criteria the committee must value in its selection process.

However, as a 21.5-point favorite against the Wildcats, the Buckeyes will have to look dominant in their title defense to secure their spot. Even their admission into the conference title game has been met with derision.

The Buckeyes had two games canceled in the last three weeks due to COVID-19. While some cry foul that the Big Ten lowered its minimum number of games played for eligibility in the title contest (from six games to five), Ohio State had demonstrated it was the best team in the Big Ten East with its win against a top 10 Indiana team. Even if the Buckeyes had a suffered a stunning loss to Michigan — in a game that wasn’t played Saturday — it would not have changed that reality in the standings.

The committee has signaled it will select a six-win conference champion Ohio State, but it behooves OSU to leave no doubt Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Though the Wildcats have won the Big Ten West in two out of the last three seasons, a victory Saturday would mark their first league title in 20 years and the biggest upset of championship weekend.

Also, with a Northwestern win, the Wildcats would’ve knocked off the fourth-best team in the country. Would the committee swap Northwestern with OSU in that event? It’s a long shot, but anything is possible.

Big 12 Championship

No. 8 Iowa State (8-2) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2), Saturday, noon ET, ABC

The stakes: A possible College Football Playoff berth for the team that can keep its streak going.

The FOX Bet line: Oklahoma by 5, over/under of 57.5.

With No. 6 Florida’s 37-34 loss to LSU at The Swamp, the door might be open for a two-loss conference champion to make the Playoff for the first time. No. 10 Miami also was boat-raced by three-loss and No. 17 North Carolina on Saturday.

That means Iowa State and Oklahoma both will move up in the rankings Tuesday. It’s just a matter of how far up.

Oklahoma could not contain Breece Hall, who rushed for 133 yards and two TDs in Iowa State's 37-30 victory in early October.

In recent years, this game has acted as a play-in for Oklahoma to the Playoff, and the Sooners have rented room in the semifinals for four of the last five years. But for the first time since the reinstatement of the Big 12 Championship Game, that’s not true.

Dating back to the last four times this game has been played, its MVP has been a Sooner: Landry Jones in 2010, Baker Mayfield in 2017, Kyler Murray in 2018 and CeeDee Lamb in 2019.

OU has also played in the title game twice as often (12) as the next member of the conference (Texas) and lost it just once. (Ask Oklahoma fans about 2003 and Darren Sproles, and you might get cussed.)

The Cyclones will be trying to win their first conference title in more than a century (1912).

Iowa State defeated the Sooners 37-30 in Ames, Iowa, on Oct. 3, while holding OU to 114 rushing yards on 33 rush attempts.

However, the Sooners have surged since their four-overtime victory against Texas and have looked like a different team defensively. The returns of running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins to the starting lineup have transformed OU on both sides of the ball.

Stevenson has averaged 5.9 yards per rush, lessening the burden on quarterback Spencer Rattler. On defense, the Sooners have not given up more than 28 points in a game since Oct. 10 and have held opponents to 14 points or fewer in four of their last five games.

However, the best player in the conference has been Iowa State running back Breece Hall. The sophomore has rushed for 1,357 yards this season (6.1 yards per rush) and is the catalyst for Matt Campbell’s offense.

ISU linebacker Mike Rose is one of the best defenders in the country with 81 tackles and four interceptions in eight games this season.

The conference champion earns a trip to the Cotton Bowl. If the Sooners win, this would be their sixth consecutive Big 12 title and 50th conference title in school history.

Okalhoma has played just once since Nov. 21 after losing the scheduled and rescheduled game against West Virginia to COVID-19 outbreaks. Perhaps, there might be some rust and room for ISU to win the title in a magic year for Campbell.

Pac-12 Championship

No. 13 USC (5-0) vs. Oregon (3-2), Friday, 8 p.m., ET, FOX

The stakes: USC chasing perfection and possible Playoff inclusion.

The USC Trojans are playing for more than a conference championship: They’re playing for a chance at a perfect season.

If the Trojans win the conference title, it will be their first since 2017 and the 40th in school history.

Kedon Slovis and USC needed a big rally against UCLA to keep their hopes for a perfect season alive.

With an undefeated season (even a limited six-game one) and a Pac-12 crown, the Trojans would have an argument. However, that argument gets complicated by where they might rank at season’s end.

USC is simply unlikely to be selected for the Playoff because the Trojans don’t pass the utterly subjective "eye test," which is exactly what you think it is: Do your eyes say this is one of the four best teams in America?

That’s the question the 13-member selection committee tries to answer, and they rank teams accordingly. It does not look like USC will crack the Top 10 for the CFP committee Tuesday, and that would keep them out of the semifinals, no matter what happens Friday night.

But an undefeated USC has been the class of the Pac-12 in a down season for the conference. USC's résumé includes wins against teams that are a combined 7-14, and not a single one of their opponents was ranked when the Trojans played them.

Oof.

Oregon was a late replacement for Washington, which offically won the Pac-12 North, but the Huskies could not field a team of healthy players because of a COVID-19 outbreak.

The Ducks will be looking to break a two-game losing streak after dropping their in-state rivalry game to Oregon State and then falling at California. Oregon will be rested, however, and motivated to salvage the season with an upset here and a New Year's Day bowl berth.

Sun Belt Championship

No. 9 Coastal Carolina (11-0) vs. No. 17 Louisiana (9-1), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The stakes: History.

In the most intriguing conference championship game all weekend, the Chanticleers have a chance to:

Win the Sun Belt Conference championship.
Win their first FBS league title in football.
Beat a Top 25 team for third time this season.
Beat the Ragin' Cajuns for the second time.
Possibly secure New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Keep alive their chance to claim an FBS national championship.

And it’s all there for the taking for Coastal Carolina and Chants coach Jamey Chadwell.

Running back CJ Marable has helped power upstart Coastal Carolina to a Cinderella season.

Just months after picking up its first Top 25 FBS victory ever, Coastal Carolina ranks No. 1 in Wes Colley’s Colley Matrix poll, which is one of 11 national champion selectors recognized by the NCAA in determining FBS national champs.

In 2017, Central Florida finished undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the Colley Matrix. The Knights claimed a national title for that season, though Alabama is the consensus 2017 national champion and College Football Playoff national champ.

Until an expanded FBS playoff system is put in place where there can be only one national champion, Group of 5 programs like CC will continue to play through undefeated seasons with double-digit wins and never know if they could’ve knocked off one of the big boys. And no one can prove they could not.

The Sun Belt also bolstered its credentials during the limited slate of non-conference games played where they went a perfect 3-0 against Big 12 opponents. And the transitive wins look even better:

Arkansas State beat Kansas State, which beat a ranked Oklahoma team.
The Chants whipped Kansas (and so did everyone else the Jayhawks played this season).
The Cajuns beat ranked Iowa State, which not only beat ranked Oklahoma, but will play No. 11 Oklahoma team in the Big 12 title game — as a top 10 team.
And the Cajuns beat then No. 23-ranked Iowa State by 17 points.

If the Chants win the Sun Belt, they’d be one game away from their first undefeated season in their 17-year program history. But, more importantly, a win for the Chants gets college football one game closer to its natural state: chaos.

The American Athletic Conference Championship

No. 6 Cincinnati (8-0) vs. No. 20 Tulsa (6-1), Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC

The stakes: A New Year's Six bowl berth.

The FOX Bet line: Cincinnati by 15, over/under of 47.5.

This game was moved multiple times during the regular season and twice due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among the Bearcats. However, the two teams had secured their respective places in the conference championship as the teams with the highest winning percentage.

Michael Young Jr. and the Bearcats hope to dance their way into a New Year's Six spot ... and maybe the College Football Playoff.

So when Cincinnati athletic director John Cunningham informed the American that the Bearcats needed to cancel their last regular-season game at Tulsa due to another COVID-19 outbreak, the decision the conference made to go forward with the title game was met with skepticism from Tulsa fans.

First, Tulsa, like so many other programs, was robbed of its Senior Day as the game with Cincy was to be its last at H.A. Chapman Stadium in 2020. Next, as the second-best team in the conference, TU would’ve had a chance to make sure the conference championship game was played in Tulsa and not in Cincinnati with a victory.

Then, just days after the announcement, a report surfaced the American had already assigned bowl games for league members. It assigned a New Year’s Six berth to Cincy and assigned Tulsa to the Birmingham Bowl.

Finally, American commissioner Mike Aresco stumped for Cincy to be ranked ahead of Iowa State and for a spot in the Playoff — let alone a NY6 spot.

The Bearcats opened as a near two-touchdown favorite. With a win, Cincy keeps alive its chance to claim a national championship as an undefeated Group of 5 program.

With a loss, the Bearcats leave open the chance for Coastal Carolina, Louisiana or Tulsa to earn that NY6 spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. A win against TU at Nippert Stadium would mean Cincy’s first league title since 2014.

A victory for Cincinnati also might allow for it to make the Playoff because Florida’s loss to LSU messes up the transitive win argument for Texas A&M and could leap the Bearcats into contention for the fourth spot.

The Golden Hurricane looks to win its first conference title in eight years and just its third since 1985 after being ranked in the Playoff rankings for the first time in its history this season.

Also, a big game from TU linebacker Zaven Collins might solidify his winning the Butkus Award — given to the nation’s best linebacker — after a season with 52 tackles, four sacks, four interceptions, two forced fumbles, two passes broken up and two TDs in just seven games.

RJ Young is a national college football reporter for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young. Subscribe to The RJ Young Show Podcast on YouTube. He is not on a step mill.