College Football

College football chaos: What if Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame and Iowa all lose in Week 5?

Updated Oct. 1, 2021 8:06 p.m. ET

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By RJ Young
FOX Sports College Football Writer

In my preseason rankings, I listed Florida State as one of the 25 best teams in college football.

Five weeks into the season, @CFBonFOX ran this graphic.

Nothing like seeing a graphic on Twitter and realizing you’ve just shown up to your own roasting like a lost feral hog happening upon a roaring fire surrounded by 12 angry Florida fans who haven’t eaten in days.

Not only is Florida State winless. It has also been featured on The No. 1-Ranked Show’s "Money in the Bag" segment, and Noles coach Mike Norvell received the dreaded vote of confidence before the first month of the season had even concluded.

It’s another demonstration that voters (like me) are flawed, even if they’re right most of the time (like me).

NCAA-recognized selectors and computers can make Michigan the No. 1 team in the country after Week 4, just like the Colley Matrix has.

The Matrix also crowned 2017 UCF as the national champion, and the Knights raised the banner. You might say they are The One.

But scoreboards are empirical, indisputable, arbiters of who is and isn't good. They don't care about schedules, conferences or recruiting rankings.

Scoreboards only care about winning. Call ‘em Charlie Sheen.

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That's the reason I’ve pushed for a 16-team playoff with the 10 FBS conferences. Have 10 automatic qualifiers and six at-large bids for the plucky independents and the Power 5 runners-up, if you must, to get into a playoff in which there is a definitive road to a national title for all 130 teams.

I much prefer that to leaving out unbeatens simply because you or I, from our couches or a board room at the Gaylord Texan, determine who is and isn’t worthy like kings in your desires, authority quite silent by your brawl and in ruff of your opinions clothed.

That last bit? It’s Shakespeare, who know doubt had the playoff on his mind when writing that speech — once banned in the UK — for Sir Thomas More on immigration, refugees and fairness.

Winning matters. Running the table undefeated is an achievement so often discounted by the sport. But we have the system that we have, and since we do, we have to root for chaos to have a chance at anything approaching parity.

And there is a real chance for chaos this weekend, with four high-profile Top 25 matchups that could throw the top 10 all out of whack if three upsets and a favorite win.

I got these odds and implied probability — or the likelihood that it happens — via the team at FOX Bet. I asked questions such as:

1. What if Maryland (+160 underdog at FOX Bet) beats No. 5 Iowa on Friday night?

Iowa is on an absolute tear. The Hawkeyes not only are one of the five best teams in the country but also have not lost a game since Oct. 31, 2020.

In those 10 games, they’ve outscored opponents 329-117, which is another way of saying they play outstanding defense. 

They rank third in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 11.0 points per game through a third of the 2021 season.

That’s not a fluke. The Hawkeyes haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since Nov. 23, 2018. That’s 26 straight games of holding opponents under 25 points, the longest active streak in the sport and tied for the longest streak by an FBS team since 1990.

That means the Hawkeyes could go into the history books simply by holding the Terps to 24 points or fewer. (Kickoff is Friday at 8 p.m. ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app.)

The Terps, though, put up points. Mike Locksley’s squad threw up 37 on Kent State to improve to 4-0 this season. It’s the first time in five years that Maryland has begun the season with four straight wins, and quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has been one of the biggest reasons the Terps have begun the season so hot.

He threw for 384 yards with three TDs against the Golden Flashes, and his 1,340 passing yards are good enough for the best start by a Maryland QB since 1993. On the end of those passes, Dontay Demus is pushing toward making history, too.

His seven 100-yard receiving games are tied for second-most in school history. Add to this the fact that Maryland is going into this game mad as hell at Associated Press voters. It’s the only undefeated Big Ten team that the AP refused to rank, while Iowa is the league’s highest-ranked team.

The FOX Bet implied probability that Maryland beats Iowa? 38.5%

For more up-to-date news on all things Maryland, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!

2. What if No. 12 Ole Miss (+475 underdog at FOX Bet) beats No. 1 Alabama?

Last October, Ole Miss gave Alabama the closest thing to a real scare that it would see over the course of its 18-game winning streak — prior to Florida’s two-point loss to Alabama this season.

Last season, Lane Kiffin and his Matt Corral-led offense put up 647 yards and 48 points — in a game the Rebels lost by double digits.

Indeed, Ole Miss is putting up more yards and points than Alabama while allowing fewer points. While the Alabama offense has put up 465.5 yards per game, the Ole Miss offense has put up 635.5.

However, with the turnover on the field and in the coaching staff, the season began with the nascent idea that Nick Saban’s program might appear vulnerable.

Instead, all the Tide have done is roll up their competition, and then there were those Gators, who were just as turned over on the field as Alabama was.

Can Ole Miss shock Alabama? RJ Young takes a look at Week 5 odds: No. 1 Ranked Show

RJ Young takes a look at Ole Miss as an underdogs against Alabama and Arkansas' chances against Georgia in his Week 5 odds. Can either team pull off a stunning upset?

This year, Ole Miss comes into its top-15 matchup averaging more points (52.7) than Alabama (46.5). The Rebels are also allowing fewer points (62 total) than Alabama (70).

Ole Miss has scored at least 43 points in every game it has played, and those, coupled with Kiffin’s warp-speed offense, are the reasons to believe the Rebels can pull off the biggest upset of the year with a win in Tuscaloosa.

But then there’s this: Nick Saban has won 83 of 91 games as head coach of the No. 1 team in the AP poll, and Alabama is 102-13 overall at No. 1. Saban also is a mere 23-0 against his former assistant coaches.

The FOX Bet implied probability that Ole Miss beats Alabama? 17.4%

For more up-to-date news on all things Ole Miss, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!

3. What if No. 8 Arkansas (+700 underdog at FOX Bet) beats No. 2 Georgia?

This shocked me: The Razorbacks have beaten twice as many ranked opponents as the Dawgs and have proven to be as capable as any top-10 team in the country.

Arkansas plays the toughest schedule in the nation and is a team no one is excited to play this season. It also is a team with institutional knowledge of UGA, as Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman is a former offensive line coach for UGA coach Kirby Smart.

Perhaps it’s that, like Iowa, Georgia is defensively outstanding. UGA has allowed just 23 points this season — 23 total.

Or maybe it’s that the Razorbacks haven’t been undefeated this far into the season in 18 years, and few are sure they won’t make like Icarus in a spotlight as hot as the sun.

In a year when Arkansas has stacked two big-time wins — petition for the state of Texas to be renamed West Arkansas: a Razorback Territory — there’s reason to believe the Hogs can pull off this upset.

RJ Young: Clemson and Texas A&M were exposed this weekend

Clemson and Texas A&M were both exposed last weekend, and RJ Young says their College Football Playoff hopes are over after close losses to NC State and Arkansas.

The FOX Bet implied probability that Arkansas beats Georgia? 12.5%

For more up-to-date news on all things Arkansas, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!

4. What if No. 7 Cincinnati (-133 favorite at FOX Bet) beats No. 9 Notre Dame?

When I first asked about odds on this game, I was stunned to see Cincy was the favorite, as I thought it'd be the underdog, especially with ND playing at home.

The last time — the only time — Notre Dame and Cincy played, none of us was alive. The Fighting Irish beat the Bearcats 57-0 121 years ago on Oct. 26, 1900.

And though the Bearcats are favored to win this game, Notre Dame is a candidate to put the money in the bag to the tune of $1.2 million.

But after the Irish’s demonstrative win against Wisconsin at Soldier Field, where the defense created five turnovers, I have a difficult time picking Cincy to win this game.

However, ND nearly lost in overtime to Florida State and to a middling Toledo squad at home. On the flip side, the Bearcats smacked an Indiana team that began the season as a preseason top-25 program.

The FOX Bet implied probability of Cincinnati beating Notre Dame? 57.1%

For more up-to-date news on all things Cincinnati, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!

Finally, what are the odds that the three underdogs and one favorite win this weekend? A four-team parlay picking Maryland, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Cincinnati has odds of winning set at +20830 with an implied probability of 0.5%.

That means a $1 bet to win earns $209.30 total. A $10 bet to win earns $2,093.00 total. A $100 bet to win earns $20,093, and a $1,000 bet to win earns $200,930.

I’m not saying place a bet. All I’m saying is be the Watcher and ask … what if?

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The No. 1 Ranked Show with RJ Young." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young, and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube. He is not on a StepMill.

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