College Football

College football odds: 3 bets you need to make now for Alabama-Georgia

Updated Jan. 10, 2022 1:15 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The final game of the college football season is upon us, and it's a familiar matchup — the Georgia Bulldogs against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The SEC is home to both participants in the big game with these two teams playing just a month ago in the conference championship. Despite being a touchdown underdog in the first meeting, the Crimson Tide rolled Georgia 41-24 to win the SEC crown for the eighth time under Nick Saban.

How will the rematch between two of the most talented teams in the country go? I have some thoughts.

Rematches, especially those with a quick turnaround, usually favor the losing team. The winning team has no incentive to make significant adjustments. Most initial matchup winners tweak and add wrinkles to an already successful game plan, but that's about it. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

On the flip side, the losing team now knows what worked against them and will look to shore up those defenses.

Speaking of which, Georgia's vaunted defense got shredded in the prior matchup. The Crimson Tide scored and passed for more yards than anyone put up all season against the Bulldog's top-ranked unit. Alabama's quarterback Bryce Young had a day, throwing for 421 yards on 26 competitions. His performance helped win him the Heisman trophy.

Young lit up the Georgia defense for a couple of reasons. First, Georgia blew coverages that led to Alabama's receivers being wide open. The first of those allowed Alabama's Jameson Williams to score on a 67-yard touchdown that cut the Georgia lead to three points early in the second quarter. There were other instances of Georgia allowing space for Young to find wide-open Bama receivers.

Young was also able to make plays in the passing game because of the surprising lack of pressure by the Georgia defensive line. Despite playing opposite an offensive line that struggled this season with pass protection and defensive line movement, Georgia didn't blitz Young. The Bulldogs only rushed three an alarming amount of times, and it backfired.

I understand the reasoning. If Alabama's offensive line is that poor — ranked 67th in pressure rate this season — rushing three or even adding a fourth late to get home, leaves the secondary with more help against the Alabama receivers. But unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it didn't work.

This component will be the most crucial factor to the Crimson Tide's success on offense in this game. Their offensive line had their best pass protection game of the season, while the Bulldogs' defensive line had their worst.

Again, Georgia will now be able to adjust and correct these issues, which is why the losing team usually has an advantage the second time around. This leads to my first wager of the game. Let's jump into my best bets for the Championship Game, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Georgia (8 p.m. ET Monday, January 10, ESPN)

Point spread: Georgia -2.5 (Georgia is favored to win by than 2.5 points, otherwise Alabama covers)
Moneyline: Georgia -138 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $17.25 total); Alabama +120 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring over/under: 52 points scored by both teams combined

I'm going with the under on Young's passing yards for this matchup. This bet feels bold, but I'm rolling with it anyway. This season, Alabama's pass offense has often been a mess, but Bryce Young won a Heisman, and now the Crimson Tide are playing for yet another championship.

However, as I detailed above, this Alabama offense made all the big plays against Georgia's defense in the first meeting, and I don't believe it will happen again. Georgia's defensive line will play better, which will lead to the Bulldogs' secondary having a better game.

Plus, without wide receiver John Metchie, this is a different Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide's passing game looked pedestrian against Cincinnati's pass defense. This number is just too high for this game.

PICK: Bryce Young under 315 yards passing yards at FOX Bet

Let me preface my next bet by saying, I know wagering against Nick Saban is bad business. Maybe my football mind is clouding my judgment, but hear me out first.

Alabama has scored under 24 points twice this season. The first was against LSU five weeks ago when they scored 20, and then the next instance came in an overtime win against Auburn. Both of those teams disrupted the Alabama offense on the line, which is precisely what I see Georgia's defensive line doing in this rematch. I can't hammer this home enough, UGA's defensive line played poorly against Alabama, and that won't happen again.

Speaking about the matchup in the trenches, I'll also take Georgia to have over 2.5 sacks in this game. It's a low number, but Alabama is on track to start a true freshman at guard and another replacement at right tackle. With two offensive line starters going down against the Bearcats, it will be a tall task to contain this Bulldogs attack.

I'm betting on Georgia to make life tough for Young and this entire Alabama offense in the title game.

PICK: Alabama team total under 24.5 at FOX Bet
PICK: Over 2.5 sacks by Georgia at FOX Bet

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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