College Football

College football odds: 3 bowl bets you need to make now

Updated Dec. 15, 2021 7:10 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Welcome to the college football bowl season, a wager month like none other!

We are betting on games where players have opted-out or will opt-out, backups will play, and coaches have been fired or taken new jobs. And, if that's not enough, some teams want to play in their bowl games while others do not! So after wading through all of that, let's find some bowl games to wager on.

Here are some early bets I'm making, with lines courtesy of FOX Bet.

Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina (6 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN2)

The Chants are far superior, and this game won't be close. The Chants rank first in offensive efficiency and third-down conversion and second in explosive play rate and points per drive. You get the picture.

Coastal Carolina is led by their quarterback, Grayson McCall. The signal-caller is completing 73% of his passes for a whopping 12.5 adjusted air yards per attempt.

Coastal's leading rusher, Shermari Jones, is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and is getting over 3 yards before contact. This means the team's offensive line is legit.

On the flip side, NIU's defense is soft. This game features a massive mismatch between the Chants' offense and the Huskies' defense. Northern Illinois ranks 117th in success rate, 126th in rushing and 111th in explosive play rate.

The Huskies' offense might be able to keep this game close for a while, as they do rank 29th in points per drive. But, I have a big concern when Northern Illinois needs to throw the ball. The Huskies' passing game is just OK, as they rank 98th in explosive passing and are bad on third downs. If you're going to keep this game close, you need both of those components to be much better, and I just don't buy it against this Chants team trying to win their first bowl game in program history.

*As of Wednesday, Grayson McCall is still planning to play.

PICK: Coastal Carolina (-10 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10 points

Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State (11 a.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Bailey Zappe is the best quarterback no one knows about in college football. The QB led the Western Kentucky offense to 43 points per game, good for second in FBS. Zappe completed 69% of the 639 pass attempts he threw this season, for 5545 yards. He also threw 56 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions.

While the Hilltoppers' offense is built on short passes and long runs after the catch, Zappe's adjusted air yards per attempt ranked fifth in the nation.

Getting to 31.5 points won't be easy against this stout Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers rank 14th in points per drive and have only allowed over 31 points once this season. However, to contain Zappe & Co., you need a dynamic defensive backfield to create issues. Unfortunately, the Mountaineers don't have that on their roster. The team's defensive backfield has a havoc rate of just 110th in the country.

Appalachian State's defense is built around stopping the run and their pass rush, both of which will be neutralized by the Western Kentucky offensive attack and pace.

Look for WKU to go over this number.

PICK: Western Kentucky team total over 31.5 points at FOX Bet

Utah State vs. Oregon State (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

In the first bowl game named after a celebrity, I'm rolling with the Beavers in a big way.

Utah State won the Mountain West after upsetting the offensively hapless San Diego State Aztecs. Unfortunately, the Utes now get a Beavers offense that will move the ball at will against this Utah State defense.

Oregon State's offense is built through its run game. Running back B.J. Baylor leads the way, as his 1259 rushing yards are good for 6 yards per carry. Oregon State ranks second in rushing success rate and fourth in stuff rate. The Beavers must run the ball and keep third downs manageable because they don't excel in pass protection and third and long situations.

If Utah State can stop the run and force those long third downs, this game might get tight. But the Utes rank 100th on third and long situations on defense, so the Beavers should be ok. Also, it's worth noting that Utah State's rush defense ranks 127th in explosive rushing attempts, so it's going to be a long day in the trenches for the Utes.

Now Oregon State's defense is poor, but since firing their defensive coordinator, the unit has played better. The Beavers only allowed 14 and 10 points in home wins against Stanford and Arizona State before running into a buzzsaw in Oregon. But, Utah State's offense is closer to Stanford's profile than Oregon's. Utah State ranks 104th in offensive success rate and even worse (126th) in rushing success rate.

Before Utah State's upset win against San Diego State, it had not beaten a team with a winning record. The Utes have five wins against the five worst teams in the Mountain West, so this is not a good spot for them.

The Beavers are the better team, and they'll be motivated for their first bowl game since 2013. Oregon State will cover this game.

PICK: Oregon State (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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